RE: PHE Evaluation26 Jan 2021 18:47
Celtics, great post.
Looking at document, 'COVID-19: Rapid Antigen detection for SARS-CoV-2 by lateral flow
2 assay: a national systematic evaluation for mass-testing', https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.13.21249563v1.full.pdf
Line 163, there is this sentence:
"As part of Phase 2 evaluations, 9,692 LFD tests were performed at PHE Porton Down across the 64 candidate devices as of the 3rd December 2020."
I am not sure that Avacra was in a position to submit a production test by December 3rd, 2020.
Can anyone confirm??
Perhaps a question to consider is:
What business could Avacta get if they submitted a very good test, say, today, for evaluation?
Some thoughts related to Table 1 of the referenced pdf:
* Looking at the Avacta slide, 'Excellent performance of the SARS-CoV-2 ELISA with live coronavirus samples carried out with The Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine'
and cotained in Figure 1a from
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.16.20067835v1.full.pdf
The lower limit of viral copies AVCT is targeting is perhaps about 7,000 / ml, as estimated by eyeball from a logarithmic scale.
* If reliable detection of viral load above
10, 000 / ml is a reasonable aim, then the Deepblue test looks by far the best in Table 1.
Innova only achieves 88% Sensitivity in the 10,000 to 100,000 Pfu/ml range, as compared to 100% for Deepblue.
Admittedly, Deepblue drops to 98% Sensitivity for 1e5 to 1e6 Pfu/ml, but, even if real, that seems a minor problem.
So, in conclusion, it looks like the UK has bought the wrong Chinese test!
Test, test, test
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