Member Info for tomhuk2000

No worries Erdb

The most accurate way of doing it is taking the calorific kw published value to get your therms (as per GL’s recommendation on the interview) :

Calorific value kw / 29.30715683798459 = therms

I’ve been told that the mmscf conversion is slightly less accurate.

Hope that helps

Based on my previous numbers in my last post, if Angs were to be in their worst case scenario, which would be a total sidetrack failure but with a successful 2nd compressor installation, George has stated in the interview that 7mmscft would be the new flow measure that is targeted and achievable. (Take note HITS et al & watch the interview)

Based on 7mmscft/d the October numbers would be:

With flow @ 7mmscft/d = 77,124 therms

Hedge volume 56,451 @ 52.05p p/t = £29,400

Unhedged volume 20,673 @ £3.00 p/t = £62,019

Condensate 85bpd = £6,375

Brockham Oil 40bpd = £3,350

Based on 7mmscft/d #ANGS Daily gross revenue is: £101,144

Est Oct Revenue: £3,135,464

Est Annual Revenue: £36,917,560

That’s not a bad worst case scenario is it?!

Yesterdays gas flow rate = 5.62mmscft/d which equates to 61,835 therms.

Hedge amount 56,451 @ 52.05p p/t = £29,400

Unhedged amount 5,384 @ £3,00 p/t = £16,150

Condensate 70 bpd = £5,250

Brockham Oil 40bpd = £3,350

Based on 5.62mmscft/d #ANGS Daily gross revenue is: £54,150

Est October Revenue: £1,675,000

Est Annual Revenue: £19,760,000

(Based on £3.00 per therm forward pricing)

Apologies once again. But here’s the complete daily revenue for Angs based on 5.75mmscft and using calorific conversions. My last attempt had an error.

At 5.75mmscft = 63,352 therms per day.

October hedge 56,450 therms @ 52.05p = £29,380

Unhedged 6,902 therms @ £3.00 = £20,700

#Gas Condensate 70 bpd = £5,250

Brockham Oil 40bpd = £3,350

Based on 5.7mmscft/d #ANGS Daily gross revenue is: £58,680

Or £21,400,000pa

Apologies all, please see the revised daily revenue for 5.75mmscft based on more accurate calorific conversions (George mentioned that was a more precise way to interpret the data in the interview)
Good news is it’s a higher figure lol:

At 5.75mmscft = 63,352 therms per day.

October hedge is 5.19mmscf @ 52.05p = £29,750 per day

Unhedged flow is 0.56mmscft @ £3.00 = £18,500

#Gad Condensate 70 bpd = £5,250

Brockham Oil 40bpd = £3,350

Based on 5.7mmscft/d #ANGS Daily gross revenue is: £56,850

Or £20,750,000pa

Daily revenue based on 5.75mmscft

At 5.75mmscft = 59,124 therms per day.

October hedge is 5.19mmscf @ 52.05p = £27,750 per day

Unhedged flow is 0.56mmscft @ £3.00 = £17,275

#Gad Condensate 70 bpd = £5,250

Brockham Oil 40bpd = £3,350

Based on 5.7mmscft/d #ANGS Daily gross revenue is: £53,625

Or £19,500,000pa

Excellent flow rate recorded for yesterday: 5.75mmscft

Edging ever closer to 6mmscft

https://twitter.com/redditdeluxe/status/1579387600808607744?s=46&t=KUt6nzOO8SVfhIbP1CKl2g

Hi there Tony,

Compelling figures indeed. But with regards to flow rates as per Angus’s last interview the various targets and scenarios are as follows:

- Currently they want to build the flow to 6mmscft during October.

- With a fully successful sidetrack & 2nd comp
the target is up to 12mmscft.

- If the sidetrack is part successful the target is up to 11mmscft

- If the sidetrack is a failure, but the 2nd comp is installed then the target is 7mmscft.

The fundamentals are very strong

FYI yesterdays flow rates at 5.49mmscft/d

Yesterdays flow was clocked at 5.39mmscft

Let’s get it moving up to 6

If you listen to the recent interviews the timescales are as follows:

- 20th October: sidetrack spud with 35 day commissioning plus clean up. Online at the start of December to tie in with…

- Early December: 2nd compressor delivered and Installed.

- December into early January: If sidetrack successful Build pressure up to 12mmscf. If not successful use 2nd compressor addition to build to 7mmscf.

As stated in the interview, here are the sidetrack variables and estimates based on 3.50p forward gas price. (Currently average 2023 forward prices are over £4.00):

- 100% successful sidetrack & 2nd compressor = 12mmscf & 2023 revenue £95,000,000

- Part successful Sidetrack & 2nd comp = 11mmscf & 2023 revenue £87,000,000

- No Sidetrack but with 2nd comp = 7mmscf & 2023 revenue £55,000,000.

(Those prices are for Jan to Dec 31st 2023 @ £3.50 a therm and include 40bpd Brockham oil and Saltfleetby condensate sales proportionate to flow.)

It doesn’t include the second sidetrack scheduled for late 2023 or increase through reperf of Brockham oil

WG you just need to watch the recent 2 London south east interviews. He states 11 mmscft and ALSO answers a question about Aleph Insisting on the two new BOD appointments where he clearly dispels this rumour.

I think we’ve gone over all we can, so for the sake of the sanity and boredom of the rest of the contributors on here it might be best to move on.

WG, my point with regards to you not discussing the subject is pretty much what Edwood has just (rather bluntly) stated.

I have laid down several documented reasons why the plant can achieve over 10mmscf and you don’t even acknowledge I’ve stated them or offer a counter?

Instead you argue that I think the CPR is wrong (I don’t it’s just the nature of a CPR is a prediction base on data at the time. We now have new data from the ACTUAL flowing plant) or you argue that GL is untrustworthy or lacking knowledge. (Maybe in the OLD interviews you refer to he was basing his knowledge on the CPR and predicted figures and numerous variables as the plant wasn’t up and running yet. At any rate he’s learnt a hell of a lot over the past 6 months)

The plant has delivered 11mmscf already albeit for a short test. Surely that concludes the argument that it can exceed 10mmscf?

With all due respect WG I’m going to have to say that I am more comfortable to accept the assessment of George and the engineers at Angus Energy than yourself who I don’t know and whose past posting history is littered with factual inaccuracies and blatant deramping whilst providing no willingness discuss or accept opposing views like an adult, even when backed with hard evidence, so we may have to agree to disagree as DR8 said.

I am happy to trust the Angus team over your opinion because:

- Having heard GL in several interviews over the past month his technical acumen and knowledge seems excellent and far superior to yours.

- With 1 compressor we are exceeding 5.5mmscf and are building to 6mmscf. Also GL stated in an interview that in a test they hit 11mmscf. So with a 2nd compressor that indicates a doubling of capacity of ‘up to’ 12mmscf with sidetrack. I state ‘up to’ to highlight that it might reach 11.5 or 11.8, but will exceed your limit of 10. (But I’m delighted with 7mmscf if the sidetrack fails).

- Also I doubt Krzysztof Zielicki and Richard Herbert who have a combined 80 years of experience in the O&G industry with the likes of BP, would give the thumbs up to an official RNS stating that the plant could achieve 12mmscf when it can’t.

In the current presentation PDF they start by calling themselves “Engineers in Energy Transition”, and despite the delays this year they achieved something very special at Saltfleetby and it will be even more valuable when they set up the storage facility.

- You WG are basing your deramping on outdated data and your unwillingness to accept any other opinion but your own demonstrates an agenda that’s not useful to this board.

- Also referring to new and existing investors as ‘Mug Punters’ does you no favours.

All in all I’m happy in my investment and the way we are heading.

Is that a 10mmscf rating for 1 or 2 compressors WG?

Also, as we’ve seen from RNS’s and interviews since first gas, we are outperforming the CPR forecast in almost all metrics.
The CPR is a “competent persons report” offering a prediction as to how the assets will perform using the data available to hand at the time.
Now Angus has real-time accurate data from a flowing plant they’ve designed, built & been testing for the past month, with which it can offer precise readings and accurate forward flow rates.

Also, if you listen to the last interview GL said the new compressor set up is a “twin” of the existing one. Therefore the forward flows can be forecast with even more accuracy due to their first hand knowledge of the equipment.

We are now being given this 12mmscf figure because they now have a fully operational plant that they have spent the past month testing and have now calibrated their data to accurately assess the plants capacity. It’s no longer guesswork.

I think it’s a little more complex than that, however frustrating the stalled rerate is.

Overall market conditions are dire at the moment with almost zero liquidity seeing volumes down across the board and even the meatiest most impressive RNS’s are met with 10% rises that die back to nothing or in some cases are back in the Red by the days end.

I think there is a sentiment issue at the moment and the market needs to see a little more evidence that momentum is moving angus forward.

A game changer for me has been the fact that even if the sidetrack is a complete failure, the 2nd compressor will allow the 2 current wells to hit 7mmscft. That coupled with condensate proportionate to flow and 40bpd of Brockham oil will generate £50,000,000 revenue from January 2023 to the years end and that’s INCLUDING THE HEDGE.
That total doesn’t include any additional oil from Brockham or increased gas flow from the 2nd sidetrack planned for Q2-3 ‘23 at Saltfleetby,

For me this derisks the whole enterprise entirely. It would be great for the sidetrack to work and deliver 12mmscft (2023 Revenue £100m+) but 7mmscft at £50m+ per year and increasing makes our £57m MCAP look a tad modest. Sooner or later the market will realise this.

DYOR

Yeah I’d expect an RNS quite soon regarding warrant conversions.