Member Info for ToffAppleton1

Meconopsis

Hey that was a good post. I don’t agree with everything you say but I recognise the quality in your post.

As you know there’re fundamental traders and technical traders. I lean to technical trading because the rewards are much better.

As I stated before. I don’t pretend to know everything that’s going on at phoenix but I do rely on share price action to guide me. And a multi year low is not a good sign.

Managing losing positions is challenging. I offloaded a third of my Phoenix holding at break even and am down on the remainder. I cut exposure if I lose faith but as a last resort I will s**t-can the lot. Hasn’t reached that point with phoenix yet.

950 shares is only a small position so it’s easily manageable and dwarfed by my winning trades.

Plus - business models like phoenix are extremely difficult to value because no one is sure what’s on the balance sheet.

ATB

Toff Appleton.

Toad

“He doesn't deal in facts. Nothing he's said is a fact”

The predicted share price fall was a fact.

The 12 percent dividend is a giant red flag - fact

IIs have been dumping their entire holdings in this dog - fact

There’re clues in the share price - fact

All facts I have posted previously. And far more valuable than the emotional drivel posted by those in denial. Surely they should be able to identify a share that’s in meltdown. The signals are obvious - as exemplified by Phoenix.

Nolo

“Toff is full of bluster, but short on facts”

I’m reading the market and making extraordinary predictions on the future share price movement, which have been both consistent and accurate.

One only need look at my previous posts to verify that. I’m a hugely experienced trader, maybe you should try to be more constructive with your replies and pay less emphasis to those whose opinions differ or post what you don’t want to hear.

Phoenix down again today. It seems incapable of holding the slightest gain. And that’s a pattern that is getting worse.

NMBS

“Toff, are you shorting this share?”

The answer to that question is no.

I actually have a small long position going back a long way. In at an average 623. The impending dividend with be my third. Usually for me I was sucked into this dog after reading a glowing account from a newspaper tipster (how lethal is that)

Anyway I made a colossal mistake and I’ve learnt from it. Listening to newspaper tipsters is on par with listening to cabbies and show shine boys rattling on about shares. What I would say is that whenever a share is in free fall novices always pin the blame on shorters.

Which is nonsense. This company is plunging because the market believes it has something really nasty on its balance sheet. Institutional investors have been dumping it too - they obviously made that decision on knowledge retail investors are unaware of.

Also as we see on these boards all the time - novices getting emotionally involved with the companies they buy into. Those companies are inanimate, indifferent and unaware you own shares in them. The emotional aspect is the biggest sign of a clueless novice It’s just ridiculous how people attribute human qualities to share price movements.

Paranoia is what drives it.

But

“So what does JP Morgan know that the others don`t know. They need to ask themselves how many times they get it wrong. A bunch of clowns.”

The clowns are the ones buying into this dog. They’re the ones losing money.

The only number that matters is the current share price. Every expectation, every bit of news, every factor is priced into that number.

The market is pricing in something really really nasty into Phoenix. Either a massive cash call, outright bankruptcy or something along those lines. Needless to say the dividend will disappear overnight. As I often say there are clues in the shareprice and the shareprice is screaming the dividend is unaffordable and the company is concealing a disaster in the offing.

I predicted this dog would fall rapidly to £4 once it went ex-dividend. It’s the ultimate dividend dog. For every penny dividend it pays out, you lose 5 pence on the SP. Not a good return. If you’re thinking of buying in because it look cheap don’t do it - save yourself a world of grief and pain. It’s cheap for a reason. The market knows why but the retail investor is still in the dark.

I’m now predicting this dog will fall to £2 before the company holds its hands up and admits it is in a catastrophic state. Phoenix is the FTX of the share world. The market is pricing it to fail. Phoenix is every investor’s worst nightmare. For those thinking of averaging down - don’t do it. Averaging down on a losing position is madness. Any trading textbook worth its salt will tell you that. Phoenix has now reached the toxic stage of free fall. When a stock gets to that stage it falls every day. It’s only the amount it falls by that differs. A good day is when it only falls a few pennies. A bad day when it falls 5/10 percent.

Avoid like the bubonic plague. Phoenix is an engine of wealth destruction.

From what I’ve seen on this board

Porsche is the only poster who speaks any sense.

That explains why everyone e else here is long on the footsies biggest dog. You will pay for your folly with hard cash!

Forgive the spelling

Hammered

I predicted this dog was falling to 450 on the day it went ex-dividend. It’s one of those shares that’s in absolute free fall. In terminal decline.

There’re clues in the share price

This dog also yields about 12 percent on current SP

But the shareprice is yapping No No

Which translates to unsustainable.

I’ve been around markets long enough to know phoenix is Toxic. 26p dividend. It’s fallen by more than twice that amount since it went ex dividend and its in meltdown. Every time it announces a dividend it gets HAMMERED by twice as much.

Only a newspaper would advise buying into this dog. And they don’t have a clue about stock markets.

The king of the game

Toff Appleton

Billy

“directors will put their hand in their pocket to send a signal that the stock is undervalued”

Or desperate. Today’s director buys were an act of desperation in my view, from the very people who know the company is in trouble. It’s got panic written all over it.

It calls to mind the time Freddie Goodwin jacked the RBS dividend up in a show of pathological bravado DAYS before they issued a£12 billion cash call. Closely followed by a BOE takeover

Nicknaim

“Morning Star , the most shorted stocks and the who would guess JP Morgan would be a culprit..”

And that should be taken as a massive red flag because when JPM short a company there’s usually a very good reason.

JP aren’t a sordid boiler room operation like Shadowfall who fabricate false stories about companies while simultaneously shorting them. If JP are shorting they’ve got a very good reason.

Phoenix is toxic. It’s developed into a free fall share that falls precipitously on a daily basis. Some posters on here are making comments on historic performance but my answer to that is the same historic comparisons could be made about HMV and Woolworths. Past performance is no guarantee of survival.

The market believes there’s a worm in the apple. And that’s what the plunging share price is projecting.

And novices need to stop getting paranoid about the usual suspect - the shorters - the ubiquitous bogeyman. Shortest bet on an outcome - they do not determine it.

My advice - there are clues in the share price - ignore them at your peril.

And prediction for tomorrow - more free fall. With the dividend out of the way this stock will get absolutely hammered.

Stockdale

‘The drop for the dividend from a close price of 507p was expected as 481p. The current SP of 477p is no more than the usual sink below that before the inevitable recovery’

Do you really believe that?

I predict Phoenix will continue to plunge tomorrow.

When a stock goes ex dividend, especially an Uber dog like this one, it continues to drift for days afterwards.

Listen and learn so next time you won’t make the same mistake.

As I said a deadly catalyst. Now the pivotal £5 support is broken, the SP will be driven down towards £4

A lot faster than you think.

Pollack

You should at least have waited for 450p

Dividends can be awful catalysts for downward spirals, as we are seeing today.

Also dividends are pointless if market makers are going to mark the SP down twice as much as the payout

I do not pretend to know all what’s going on with this dog, but the ten percent dividend is a giant red flag and for that reason alone should be avoided.

Also Phoenix is getting worked over and walked down by the market and is in free fall. And shares that get that degree of negative attention are best avoided. Right now it’s looking like an engine of wealth destruction, not an investment.

My advice - do not be sucked into this dog by a dodgy dividend that is deducted twice over from your capital.

Pedro

“Darktrace said that it changed its definition of adjusted operating profits and would now treat all commissions as cash costs.”

I suspect thé auditor’s raised this issue, to make DT appear more transparent. Although it’s more cost up front it amounts to the same. And very cleverly, it removes a stick shorting bandits used to beat DT with.

If only DT had floated on the US market, they would have done themselves a world of good. Although debated, it was decided against because of their Autonomy connection.

A series of broker upgrades since the company rubbished Shadowfall’s false claims will drive the price higher . As we’ve seen over the past couple of days, a company with low liquidity that’s being shorted can rise precipitously. The chances are if you sold is that the buyer was closing his short (at an eye watering loss) And to exert even more pressure on short positions the share buyback program decreases liquidity even more. Fortuitously for DT most of the 75 million allocated to the buyback was completed sub £3. It doesn’t get much better than this.

Darktrace Plc : HSBC raises target price to 525p from 430p

Darktrace Plc : Morgan Stanley raises target price to 480p from 420p

Darktrace Plc : Needham raises target price to 475p from 330p

Darktrace Plc : Piper Sandler raises target price to 500p from 385p

Nigel

"For any entity looking at a takeover of BT, the valuation of the assets will be an important consideration, so I'd expect at least £3 and possibly as high as £4 a share offer for it to be given serious consideration."

I see the biggest drawback on any prospective takeover of BT is the politicalisation of the company by meddling politicians, imposing conditions in order to gain popularity amongst the electorate.

Politicalisation of UK banks has destroyed the sector as a worthwhile investment. Barclays for example is the cheapest constituent of the ftse100 by every known metric.

It trades at circa 150p a share but its real value is three times that amount (450p)

That’s the damage politicalisation does to companies. In fact, I’m absolutely amazed JP Morgan, GS or another American banking giant hasn’t made an offer for Barclays and its incredibly valuable assets yet?

Although tempted, I suspect they believe politicians would intervene and ban any potential takeover. The same fears weigh on BT’s shareprice. As it stands now politicians treat BT as though it were in the public sector, and they override the management at the expense of its shareholders . I can’t see this ultra-over-regulation changing whilst slimy politicians continue to meddle in the private sector in order to win votes. Bank bashing by nefarious UK governments has become a regular tool in today’s electioneering. The country would benefit greatly if politicians were eliminated and an AI common sense computer ran it. Brexit being an extreme example of the horrific damage politicians can inflict on the economy and their own people to serve their own ends.

Aany

That website is totally inaccurate. Professionals don’t base their decisions on antiquated websites that are available to any Tom Dick and Harry. They use professional source, not ones designed to misinform and mislead, which only tell a fraction of the story.

When DYOR I’d advise getting access to some of those websites instead of using the Mickey Mouse ones.

Have been following Darktrace around like a bad stink since it floated on the market. Perpetrating false rumors and using ML’s tarnished reputation to trash the company at every opportunity.

It’s not the first time they’ve targeted the wrong company - shadowfall slipped up on their massive Blue Prism short; but to name one.

But that’s nothing compared to their f**k up with their Darktrace short. I don’t expect those morons will get a lot of sleep this weekend. When they reconsider their position on Darktrace will they exit and suck on their huge losses, or hold and hope like the terminal losers they are?

Okay - they’re playing fast and loose with other people’s money - but their latest failed short on Darktrace will do irreparable reputational damage to their soiled brand. And that’s before the eye watering losses are taken into consideration.

I hope they hold and hope because Darktrace could hit £10 or more. In fact does anyone know if it’s possible to short these Shadowfall losers - because it’ll be the easiest money you could ever make. If Shadowfall hold and hope they will go bankrupt.

Fleccy

“Time will tell if I'm correct, I can't help it if you two are too thick to understand it.”

Let’s all remind ourselves why we trade/invest in stocks. It’s in the expectation that the shareprice will rise and your asset will increase in value. Right?

No one on these boards has got trashed on their investments as much as you. And anyone who followed your advice would have been decimated too. There’s never a day go by without you posting upbeat forecasts and utopian futures for the telecom sector.

But the reality is very different. You only need to look at your eye watering losses to see that. That is the reality you choose to ignore.

Another drawback of investing all your money in terminal losers is it ties your money up and prohibits investing in winners.

Of all the shares you had to pick three of the worst. Doesn’t it bother you when you think of all the money you could have made had you bought into other countless other companies?

Your losing bets have only compounded further losses from the money you could have made from alternate bets.

Your’s is the worst case of self-denial I have ever witnessed. And all the evidence of that denial is right before your eyes in the only number that counts. The red one which spells out your astronomical losses.

And as for time telling - in your case it has done just that - nearly a decade of failed predictions for the telecom sector,; laboriously written in thousands of posts on these boards.

Time is finite - and given your advanced age time is running out.

Fleecy

‘I would think there's a limit to how far the market can push the price down from here.”

Yes and as with any other share that limit is zero.

Last time I checked (about 12 months ago) Voda was saddled with over €40 billion of debt. As the shareprice tumbles the ratio between market capital/debt increases. In the long term that is unsustainable. Cut throat competition and wafer thin profit margins adds to the sector’s woes.

It’s my belief that both Voda and BT will both need huge capital raises further down the road, to remain in existence. So all those dividends you’ve reaped will be paid back with interest in order to retain your slice of these companies. It bewilders me to think that Voda continues to pay out unaffordable dividends which aren’t covered by earnings. Effectively they are borrowing even more money to pay dividends and digging themselves deeper into a debt hole, from which there could be no return.

In my opinion Vodafone could fold, go bankrupt - followed by a fire sale of its assets to pay off its creditors. There’re clues in the shareprice Fleecy - and Vodafone is being priced to fail.