Member Info for ToffAppleton1

DFB opened on SB acct

£1 a point on 100 shares.

I’m playing the penny arcade today 😆😆😆

Master

Don’t read too much in to broker recommendations. In fact you’d be far better to completely ignore them.

Banks and brokers employ analysts otherwise know as beancounters. If they had any talent for anything else why would they be counting beans.

If they upgrade a stock, there’re usually very little uplift. If they downgrade a stock, it can fall heavily, only because market makers mark it down accordingly.

Buy recommendations are meaningless. For example I saw Vodafone had about 15 buy or strong buy recs, and about 3 holds, no sells, a few years back. And it still fell on TEN consecutive days. Now look at it - a monumental washed-up dog.

Shareprices don’t follow beancounters, beancounters follow shareprices.

For example stock X is 300p

Beancounter Y have a target price of 420p

Not looking to wish stupid and wanting to retain credibility beancounter Y lowers the new target price to 250p

Classic example of beancounters following shareprices. Babababababanaba!

So my advice is to put broker recs out of your mind. Believe me, no one worth their salt pays any attention to them in the trading world.

Dr

“Barclays on Oct. 24 said that its net interest margin in the domestic UK retail-banking business would be between 3.05% and 3.1% in 2023, compared with its previous target of around 3.15%.”

And that alone is the pretext for today’s hammering. The bear raiders and MMs ignored every bit of positive news and focused on one obscure negative.

Let’s pretend a broken fingernail is a life threatening situation - that’s about the gist of it!

How these colluding hyena hedge funds get away with it I’ll never know. They are determining the direction of the shareprice and making millions on the way down. The FCA know about this malpractice, but like the toothless fairy they are, do nothing about it. They would never get away with it in the USA. But this is the country where politicians trash our most valuable companies, to make themselves look good in the eyes of the philistines.

One things for sure, Barclays isn’t trading on fundamentals. It’s trading on technical indicators, being driven down by traders going short. Exploiting the price decline. If you ask me it was the victim of a bear raid today. That’s when multiple hedge funds collude to drive the price down, with thousands of algorithm sells, for handfuls of shares. That’s enough to freak market makers, who then mark it down precipitously. The bear raid funds were expecting Barclays to come in short today, but they beat market expectations. The bear raid went ahead as planned anyway. And the market makers complied like nodding donkeys.

Forget the phenomenal earnings and market beating profit, Barclays is just a number now. A number to be shorted. I believe it will test 130 either today or tomorrow.

Already the cheapest share in the Permabear 100, it’s lost about another two billion of its value today.

On the back of a £1.9 billion profit in the past 13 weeks. It doesn’t get anymore insane than this.

This is why I advocate huge share buybacks instead of dividends.

NAV 316 up from 295 in December.

EPS - 28.2 a number that increases with each share bought back.

Criminal!

Come on GS or JPM where are you?

You can buy Barclays and make £15 billion in a day. And tens of billions more over the next few years. And give post Brexit a kick in the teeth for all of us.

Shark

If an American listed bank had issued that update it would have risen 7/8 percent. They have to quit Britain, that’s the only way out of the Permabear trap.

Reminds me of when I was a kid. Thrashed for doing something wrong and thrashed when I never did anything.

barclays are not judged on their results. if they were it wouldn’t trade for chump change. the problem with supercharged barclays isn’t the business itself, it’s the awful, bombed out, ******ed index on which it lists.

barclays owe it to their shareholders to up sticks and re-list in the us , where they makes most of their money. barclays is a global success story, a moderate sized british bank that became an investment bank behemoth. a bank that gets trashed in its own country by obtuse tories for making more profit than philistines find acceptable.

how the hell barclays haven’t attracted predatory interest is beyond me, it must look like the buy of the century to gs & jpm

Svend

“In addition to the above, I would also like to add that the statement "If you've been trading long-term you'll understand what I mean" is a bit of a generalization. There are many successful long-term investors who believe that investing in companies with the potential to return to their former value can be a profitable strategy.”

You failed to draw a distinction between trading and investing. I always state myself as a trader. A loose description of the difference is one is looking for short-term gain, the other hoping for a sizable gain over the long term. For me personally, holding long term on the ftse100 is a suckers game. Why hold a share for 12 months, if you can buy and sell it for a profit twenty times over in that time period?

Of course short term trading has its risks identifying viable targets is imperative.

I think trading is the objective of many people posting on these boards, searching for short term gains. But as we know short-term trades can often become long term investments. It also has to be said, these boards have a high churn rate, the average lifespan of a wannabe trader is short.

Many will try, most will fail, as reflected by poster turnover. They come and go; as one set gets wiped out, another takes their place. in truth, the overwhelming majority would have benefited financially if they had never dabbled in stocks.

please note - this is a trader's perspective, who is well versed in market psychology, not that of an investor.

Clued

Your statement is based on the supposition Phoenix returns to its former value. Which is far from a foregone conclusion. Lots of stocks don’t. You have to remember in this game that, like people, companies have a life expectancy too. One of the most common mistakes I see among investors are the expectation of eternal existence. If you’ve been trading longterm you’ll understand what I mean.

Toad

Day trading is a mug’s game. Calling short term asset price swings is just plain reckless in my opinion. I hardly ever use leverage, I pay for my stocks in full, stamp duty too. Then if a position goes against me at least it’s not accruing fees and interest, which can soon exceed stamp duty.

I dumped Sylvania Platinum last week at a small loss, but I’ve still got my small Phoenix holding, which I intend to keep for now. I haven’t really seen any news to change my mind, but as I said in an earlier post, technicals takes precedence over fundamentals a lot of the time, otherwise most ftse100 companies would trade much higher. L

Jcb

“will not add until I see progress“

Very wise. Averaging down in a losing position is often a bad idea. As you’ve seen for yourself posters on here who have bought in at £7 have boasted about averaging down at £6.50, £ 6.00 , £5.75 ad infinitum. For them averaging down has not only snowballed and compounded their losses, it has tied good money up that could have been invested elsewhere, costing them missed opportunities.

And more disturbingly, putting them in the position of either being seriously overweight, or all-in on one stock.

Which is okay, if it’s Apple, but if it’s a world beating turkey like Phoenix, you are in deep deep trouble.

Advice - keep every position manageable

So if it doesn’t go the way you’d hoped.

Losses are limited.

It’s what we pros call risk management.

But is often absent in novices.

Toad

Some truth in that.

If it were for oil majors, miners and Astra Zeneca, the ftse would be trading at sub 6000 now.

About 900 points lower than in 1999

Since then the

Dax has tripled

Dow has quadrupled.

Make of that what you will.

Note that I do not make personal attacks against posters, but I do criticize companies and warn people about turkeys (the trick with turkeys is spotting them before they go in the oven)

Whether people pay any attention is up to them.

And the same can be said for every one with an opinion.

Sure sign of a novice, when people take it as a personal affront if a poster blowtorches a terminally underperforming share.

Learn from this.

1. If you own a share it’s NOT your wife.

2. The shares you own DON’T Know you exist.

“I expect a real good kicking on the share price tomorrow.”

However good the results are the UK market with find a pretext to smash the shareprice down.

I just hope they announce a huge share buyback to capitalise on the opportunity.

Trojan

In my mind, the best way companies can retaliate against an index is to buy huge amounts of shares back for peanuts. I know the dividend won’t be scrapped, but it would be better spent buying shares back.

British indexes are toxic. Engines of wealth destruction. Despite being at historical lows and trading at a huge discounts to other global markets, short positions have actually increased recently on UK equities.

The Permabear is being punished for its appalling track record. All the bears in the world come to hunt in the UK. It’s technical trading rather than fundamental. As Jesse Livermore said. Never to low to short, never too high to go long. Forget the fundamentals, focus on the technicals.

Abject

You could have made the same argument when the shareprice was £7. Investing money in dogs ties your money up, money which could be used for better investment opportunities.

As for long term, this dog could just as easily sink to £2 as rise. Long term is losers solace, but the markets with companies that only declined over the long term.

Please don’t think this is a personal attack on you. I’m just reading the shareprice action and it’s not good.

The business model seems to be - pay big dividends twice a year and then deduct 2/3 times that amount from your capital sum invested. Anyone thinking of buying for the dividend should study the term ‘dividend dog’ and invest in something decent instead.

Shark

If you want some humourous, easy reading with an edge, check “The Death Of Bitcoin - cryptocurrency’s endgame”On Amazon.

Authored by none other than Toff Appleton.

A visionary tale of crypto’s demise.

Shark

“that’s if we don’t have a nuclear war, global disease, asteroid impact etc.”

And it’s not a foregone conclusion.

Hate to sound like a profit of doom, but global peace is on a precipice right now, the whole lot could come crashing down and take markets with it.

Even though uk shares are bombed out, trade at all time historical lows and get smashed by the market almost every day, they could still take a howling dive.

Treading very cautiously right now, picking off small increments of shares, on weakness, in the handful of companies that actually rise with the Permabear 100.

Middle East looks like the asteroid that’s going to crater markets.

Prophet

I’m talking multinational miners, not exploration/start up outfits. Many of which are mineless (without a mine)

I don’t trade casino chip stocks, in the same way as I wouldn’t trade crypto.

“a) Buying on 16.12.22 and selling on 23.01.23 i.e. in and out in 38 Days.”

Additionally, I note your trade was made 9/10 months ago.

I based my opinion on recent price action.

Stocks are in a constant state of flux. A good trade today doesn’t necessarily mean a good trade tomorrow.

“b) What your actual stake is?“

Altrusic

For stocks that don’t fluctuate much you need to buy higher volumes to make a worthwhile profit, as you have demonstrated. In that respect you are correct, but for those without the available sums as yourself, there are better short term trades in the uk markets. Most notably mining stocks.