Member Info for ToffAppleton1

Savage

“There's a broad based market correction going on for FTSE indices”

True - and the reason is Trump Trades.

Everything worthless, such as cryptos and Tesla are soaring at the expense of ultra-valuable blue chip cash cows

Americans lost their minds when voting for Trump, and markets have followed suit. This has created an opportunity to buy into market leaders on weakness.

Regarding Tesla - its market capital exceeded one trillion dollars last week - more than every other auto maker combined. And on Monday its market valued soared over one billion dollars in a day - more than the market value of VW & Toyota. In a single day. Tesla is trading on crypto scales with no reality involved whatsoever.

That potential sale of 100,000 rental vehicles compares to 2-3 million rental vehicles that the other automakers sell to rental fleets in the US in a normal year.

That gain of $115 billion in a single day was larger than the market cap of every automaker, except the three most valuable of them: Toyota, Volkswagen, and BYD. The $115 billion single-day move added a Daimler plus Nissan plus Renault to Tesla’s market cap.

So how nuts is this?

In terms of global market share, a different picture evolves. Yes, Teslas global sales have soared over the years – from nearly nothing to very little.

So far this year, Tesla delivered 627,000 vehicles globally, of which 241,000 in Q3, a huge accomplishment, given the semiconductor shortages. For the year total, deliveries might approach 900,000 vehicles, which would be a huge push and would require a lot of walking on water. But it’s a round number, and we’ll work with it.

Total deliveries globally of light passenger vehicles by all automakers combined might come in at 75 million vehicles, which would be down substantially from 2019.

If these projections are on target – if Tesla can deliver 900,000 vehicles and all automakers globally combined can deliver 75 million vehicles – then Tesla’s global market share would surge to a record breath-taking dizzying 1.2%:

p.s. I like the predictions although I disagree. Problem with predictions is the volume of factors involved, such as unexpected events. Most people can’t predict the past let alone the future. So me personally, leave predictions to the experts. You know, the ones who caused the financial crisis in 2008 and the ones responsible for the dotcom bubble.

Savage

“It's my view BT has underperformed and I fully expect it to drop sub 130p over there”

That may be true, but no ftse 100 share has underperformed more than Vodafone. So you’ve sold out of one underperforming stock and used the proceeds to buy into one of the world’s worst performing stocks. Vodafone has been a perennial loser in terminal decline for many years now and I don’t see that changing anytime soon.

Additionally, telecoms have been just about the worst performing sector in markets for an age.

I suggest you do more research before plunging into any more stocks. Take a look at historical prices and long term charts - you will find all the answers in those. And look at performance comparisons between sectors. Those simple factors apply to anyone investing in stocks.

Tip - it’s best to research stocks before buying in, not afterwards. You’d be amazed how many people do it the other way round.

Fleecy

“It's a pointless exercise guessing the short term direction of a stock,”

But anyone who guessed Vodafone & BT were going to remain in the doldrums long term and become textbook bears in a bull market would have been correct. I think I’m right in saying both stocks are lower now with the ftse at 8200 than when the index fell below 5000 when covid hit home.

Telecoms have been an appalling investment over the past few years. Even a tracker would have outperformed them by about 30 percent, and that requires no active participation. The worse thing about backing losers is you not only lose money from your losses, you also lose money from backing the stocks which have risen.

Which is just about everything apart from telecoms.

Clued

“Just curious, who were the operators ?”

When you’re in a trading environment it’s not uncommon to get unsolicited propositions via word of mouth. I know enough to identify these paid flunkies ramping no hoper stocks just by reading a post or two. Almost always obscure small caps, which are about to become the best thing since sliced bread. Remember, if they had money of their own, they wouldn’t be selling stock to finance their operations.

From my experience, the type of people who do it are losers and washouts, and very unconvincing. If they had any talent they could make much more money playing straight.

Abject

Deceptive ramping is relevant to every one of these boards. And posters should be made aware of its existence and learn to root out the offenders.

I have seen people lose tens of thousands of pounds on junk stocks on these boards through rogue manipulators.

To my knowledge there is no such activity on this board.

Clued

“Wonder who would bid for PHNX ?“

Maybe the great man himself

Warren - he cut his teeth on insurance

He likes it because it’s cash generative and premiums are paid up front.

Karv

“I think this this was just the lemming effect and miss the boat reaction to a price rise,unless some mysterious news pops out.”

There’s nothing more positive in markets than a hefty rise driven by huge volumes.

As we saw yesterday.

Maybe Elliot or some other stock operator has bought a large stake.

Poker

“fabricated lies to push prices up further and further, bringing in sucker buyers who are then saddled with the most risk and potential losses from overpaying , having been mislead about the situation,.... “

Absolutely. And these boards are loaded with dubious posters who ramp mostly small cap companies that have little hope of survival.

I’ve been offered paid ramping of no hoper companies by unscrupulous operators.

Something I would never do.

Mustn’t forget that shorters are also buyers, the only difference is that they do it in reverse. Sell now - buy later. And in the event of any positive news a heavily shorted stock soars, far more than one which isn’t, on short covering. Paradoxically buyers also sell, so in a manner of speaking they also short by selling. Too much paranoia and ignorance about shorting from those who don’t understand market dynamics.

What I am against is rogue hedge funds that target perfectly good companies with fabricated lies to drive the SP down while simultaneously shorting. Case in point - the boiler room operation Shadowfall’s persistent trashing of Darktrace while shorting the stock. I can’t see how that can be allowed, it should be outlawed by the toothless fairy that calls itself the FCA.

Here’s hoping Shadowfall and their boiler room acolytes got ruined by their vicious Darktrace shorting crusade.

Deepjoy

Right. Barclays beancounters are very badly lacking.

The bank has a lot of talent - especially the investment arm, but the beancounters are a pack of re***ds.

They very recently downgraded JD Sports for a proposed takeover that initially went down very well with the markets.

Fell ten percent on the back of their beancounters downgrade. I rate JD because there’s a major football tournament this summer and that’s nothing but good news for sports retailers.

And their takeover target will give them increased exposure to the massive US market.

Obviously Barclays beancounters aren’t football fans. Doubt if they know what a football looks like.

If I was Barclays management I would go through them with a wrecking ball.

Todays move isn’t no broker upgrade or RNS

THE SHAREPRICE ACTION IS AN EXACT REPLICA of Anglo America 45 minutes before the market closed.

My guess, and it’s only a guess, is that a takeover bid will be announced after market closes

Phoenix will become the latest takeover of a UK company that trades for chump change because an obtuse nation doesn’t possess adequate intelligence to value shares fairly.

Sadly any takeover by a US predator will result in asset stripping as we have seen with Morrison’s and countless others.

That’s why Britain voted for Brexit right?

Wrighty

I agree, Brexit has been an unmitigated disaster for the country.

But what bothers me most is the inaction to stimulate the economy post Brexit.

Most of this lot aren’t real tories, they’re ukip brexiteers masquerading as Tories. All the decent ones were culled in the last election and replaced by sycophants. There is a total absence of innovation to kickstart the economy. They are redundant of policy and ideology, and most damagingly have no understanding about market dynamics, globalisation or constructive capitalism. There are many obvious measures that could be taken to energise Britain’s economy, but current government is incapable of implementing anything which would bolster the economy. That’s what happens when the electorate elect illiterate, undereducated populists.

Beard

More likely to be a merger than a takeover in my view. As analysts have pointed out Glencore would be the most viable partner, cost cutting and savings from synergies would be considerable. And a merger would be virtually seamless because of common ground and shared objectives.

However the market valuation is low enough to attract predatory attention from private equity/vulture funds/asset strippers. The sum of all AA’s parts are worth between 2/3 times more than current valuation. The undesirable elements that plague beaten down UK stocks (think Morrisons) may find the potential of turning a massive profit irresistible.

A powerhouse company at the forefront of the global economy, such as AA, would never find itself in this position if it were listed in a decent index.

A toxic index that decimates the value of every company it touches.

1999

Ftse - 6970

Dax - 5000

Dow -800

2023

Ftse - 7578

Dax - 16755

Dow -37230

And for the first time in history the CAC will close the weeks out numerically higher than the ftse

The ftse - an unregulated engine of wealth destruction.

An index where every boiler room and rogue hedge fund targets shares with tens of thousands of fake sells daily with a practice known as spoofing, that is outlawed elsewhere.

And the FCA and government sit idly by, terrified of soiling the already sullied reputation of UK markets.

My petition has 20 signatories and waiting approval

Once it is approved I will contact investor relations of every ftse100 company and make it a crusade to stamp out cheating and holding criminal manipulators accountable.

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/653169/sponsors/new?token=tEsepLajN7mQE8SDiw07

Dodgy

Anglo American is the most diversified of all big cap miners. A little research will confirm that.

It should be remembered that mining giants are at the forefront of the global economy, and that isn’t going to change anytime soon. China’s massive economic expansions was built on miners. A factor that will only grow with the transition to green energy.

Dodgy

One would expect the chart patterns of big cap miners to resemble each other as they are in the same sector. Up until recently they have performed in line with one another, but all that changed when hedge foods started mass spoofing Anglo American.

Spoofing is a crime in the US but there is no statute prohibiting it in the UK. It leaves UK shares wide open to indefensible abuse, as we have seen with AA.

If the government is ever going regain confidence in UK markets it needs follow other global markets example and outlaw spoofing, and come down on the perpetrators very very hard.

For those of you who don’t know what spoofing is I’ll explain it in another post. The UK’s dearth of regulation has flung the doors open to every boiler room and rogue hedge fund to practice in the UK what is outlawed in their own countries. All at the expense of shareholders.

Doubling down is the surest way to ruin.

These boards are full of traders who claim to be constantly doubling/averaging down on losing positions.

Vodafone for example - imagine if you’d averaged down multiple times on that - as many have done.

Hit yet another all time low today - 65p

Beware - you will end up all in on a dog of a share and financially ruined. Stick to a sensible sized positions and diversify. Doubling down is the primary cause of stock market losses.

Jeffrey,

I’m pleased to say the petition has received enough signatories to be considered.

When I feel the appropriate time has arrived I will send the petition to AA investor relations and a host of other blue chips that have been unjustifiably battered at the hands of the U.K. market. The misconduct of those responsible for valuing U.K. shares pose an existential threat to our stock market and economy, and must be addressed. Here’s the reply.

“Your petition is nearly ready to go.

***** ********* supported your petition – “Investigate the valuation mechanisations of UK stock markets.”.

5 people have supported your petition so far. We’re checking your petition to make sure it meets the petition standards. If it does, we’ll publish it. We have a very large number of petitions to check at the moment so it may take us longer than usual to check your petition. Thank you for your patience.

Once your petition has 21 signatures it won’t be able to add more until it’s been checked. So, please wait until it’s been checked and published before sharing it with lots more people.“

Doy

I largely agree with your sentiment about the present state of British politics, but I think you are unaware of how these petitions work.

After 10,000 signatures, petitions get a response from the government.

After 100,000 signatures, petitions are considered for debate in Parliament.

The government know full well the issues facing UK equity markets, which are in terminal demise. They must know the country would benefit if they could introduce measures to make London a desirable location for companies to list once more. I have a whole raft of measures in mind to reinvigorate UK markets. Unless radical measures aren’t taken, UK markets will fade into oblivion through lack of regulation and innovation.

Here is the link again for supporters to sign

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/653169/sponsors/new?token=tEsepLajN7mQE8SDiw07

Jeffrey,

These petitions are exclusively for ordinary citizens, not corporations. What makes this petition even more relèvent is the well publicised reluctance for any decent British company to list in the U.K.

U.K. indexes are toxic - engines of wealth destruction. If the government doesn’t address the reasons behind it, Britain will continue haemorrhaging its most dynamic companies to foreign markets, which will in turn, irreparably damage the U.K. economy.