Member Info for ToffAppleton1

“Toff/ your comparing apples with pears..the FT100 is full of Banks, Insurance companies,”

No I’m comparing global indexes over the last decade. Simple as that! What’s the matter with you?

Don’t you know other indexes have banks and insurance companies in them!

You sound like one of those inexperienced hindsight traders who come on here to put the world to rights.

Any real trader would know it’s a Blood Sport

Like...

ToffAppleton

For another sell recommendation and price target downgrade. I can read these mofos like a Swiss watch. Glaxo closed below £12 for the first time today. CS will be anxious to consolidate their shorting position and enable their accomplices. Their objective will be to drive it down to £11 now.

Expect a double l-sell rec and 1075 price target as early as Monday. And watch the uk market makers trash the most undervalued pharmaceutical company in the world deeper into the dirt.

Over the past decade £100 invested in

Tokyo - £280 today
Wall Street - £290 today
Chinese Index - £180
Emerging markets - £130
EU markets - £140

And right at the bottom of the s**tpile is
You guessed it.
The Permabear at £110

Will the FCA ever take action against the world’s filthiest stock market?

*based on performance from 2011

Fats

“Unilever net debt is circa Euro 20 bn - just to clarify.”

That may sound a lot to individual denizens but on a corporate basis it’s very little. Especially given the size of the company’s global operations.

Vodafone - a much smaller company carries £38 billion of debt (€43 billion)

National Grid carries £32 billion - roughly the same as its MC value

I could go on and on...

But I won’t bore you.

The hedge funds I quoted in a previous post are walking this stock down.

0.01 percent of the shares are traded each day - and the other 99.99 percent follow suit.

Lots of liquidity makes it easier to short a stock. Multiple algorithmic sell orders for one or two shares creates an illusion of mass selling.

Market makers are too obtuse to evaluate these devious trades but worse the FCA should investigate the scumbags responsible.

Moving headquarters from a regulated country to an unregulated one has cost Unilever dear. Why the hell they’d do a thing like that after catastrophic Brexit is beyond me.

They are exposed to every unregulated hedge fund and shorting cartel in the world now. Unilever belongs to the worlds worst performing stock market of the 21st century. Domiciled in a country with no regulation. That’s why it’s in free fall.

The worst performing stock market of the 21st century didn’t rise with other global markets but it’s certainly taken the lead on the way down.

It looked like Glaxo was going to buck the trend early on - I thought pharmaceuticals and tobacco stocks being defensive might actually rise.

But then I remembered...

There are no defensive stocks in the Permabear.

The market makers trash most Permabear stocks no matter what’s happening in global markets.

Looking at the early trades - the shorting cartel had multiple small sell orders (algos) which kicked in as Glaxo rose - like strategically laid mines. Glaxo is in the vice like grip of algorithm machines - every attempt to rise is thwarted by algorithm programs.

If you did that in a casino you’d be locked up for 25 years.

Fats

“Some are now mentioning 1.50, not sure I see that but never say never etc.”

The £ has become the in vogue currency. Most FX is technical driven. Even though the fundamentals don’t support a stronger pound the algos will drive it up because it’s been singled out by traders. It’s that mass collusion factor again - so dominant in markets.

I want to take full advantage of an overvalued £ so I’ve been hedging other currencies as it rises.

I think $1.50 is almost certain. If it reaches that level any rise above will meet stiff resistance.

Fats

“That's my gut call on GSK, some nice value creation by the end of 2022,”

You do have a tendency to defer price targets and success to some future point in time.

I guess that makes you an investor

Fats

“where he says...I start every trading day with the mindset that every position“

And then you allude to holding for two years...

I think a lot of people on these boards fail to distinguish between traders and investors

The chasm is huge.
In my book you’re either one or the other

Livermore was a trader
Buffett is an investor

One is short term
The other long term

Which one are you?
Or are you both?

In truth most people on these boards are traders in the definition that they’re looking for a short term gain. (A quick buy and sell at a profit)

It makes me laugh when they quote Buffett’s cliches - unaware that his dogma isn’t relevant to short term traders. They buy what they think will be a short term winner and end up with a long term loser. Then start talking about how it’ll come good in the long term and how they’re in it for the long term. A losing position becomes a badge of honor. Which they wear with pride and vent their wrath on detractors.

Humans are a lot closer to apes than they care to admit.

If they don’t know their own minds how are they going to understand anything that exists outside it?

Usually

“and have begun with a position that is a half of what would be a normal weighting. so thats an underweight position as part of the rest of the portfolio.”

You sound like you’re ad-libbing from the Idiot’s Guide To Investing. I know finance is an essentially dull subject but do you have to make it sound so boring?

First you’re claiming Glaxo would be good value at £10
Then you claim to have bought in at over £12
That’s what’s known as a contradiction.

Tip - Paragraphs are a useful formal if you want people to read your posts.

Usually

“25 years doing nothing else.”

Come off it!
You’d have starved to death after the first few days if you’d relied on your share trading acumen to make a living. I didn’t realize you took your comments seriously - I thought you were rehearsing to be a stand-up comic.

If you’re a trader I’m going to fly to the moon tonight.
You must have a day job?
Surely?

Keep your posts flowing though
I nearly wet myself laughing when I read the last one.
People were asking me if I was okay (I was on the end of Bournemouth pier)

Fats

“GSK, even at these levels, trades on a 2022 X of approx 13.5 X.”

Let’s stick to the here and now shall we - instead of trying to see around corners. 2022 is light years away in the world of corporate finance. Trying to guess the weight of the cake in the distant future is asinine.

Glaxo is currently trading on a p/e of 10
Which makes it...

Cheap as chips by any metric.

And as sure as eggs are eggs the SP will revert to mean in the not too distant future.

Fats

“It's sometime since I've read his famous book,”

I don’t think Graham would make his mark in today’s stock markets. He was purely a value investor - his brand of investing would have yielded poor results in today’s environment. He’d have underperformed the market.

One glaring flaw in his investment strategy was his failure to take the “tide of technology” into account.

He’d have been investing in HMV Woolworths & Debenhams today. And look what’s happened to them.

Usually right

“10 quid as big support.”

Are you for real
Is this a prepubescent school kid’s windup?
You can’t be serious?
Probably the most clueless poster I’ve ever seen on these boards - and that’s coming from a Pro.

Usually Right - what a misnomer that is
You should change your moniker to

Always_Wrong

Hahahaha.

Keep posting anyway. I went to bed weak with laughter last night after reading your posts :-)

As predicted it dropped below £12 but on every breach it’s rallied back above that level.

That’s encouraging. Glaxo seems to have found a floor - but is it temporary?

Anybody’s guess. If it breaches my prediction of 1188 it will probably move toward 1150. But that’s far from a foregone conclusion.

Fats

“Toff, have to disagree on the £20 plus if the main listing was on the NYSE.”

You’re over analyzing- searching to justify the price plunge. You could apply pedantic analysis to any share including the ones that trade on p/e’s of hundreds or even thousands.

Glaxo is cheap by any metric and I don’t need to waste time convincing its isn’t.

All shares are valued differently. Fundamentals have very little to do with it.

And remember I’m a trader not an investor.
Unlike most on these boards who quote Buffett, it’s all about capitalizing on short term shareprice movements momentum and market psychology.
An investor’s mindset is alien to me.

Sorry fats - don’t take this personal - but you can’t see the wood for the trees, you’re getting too wrapped up in detail. Good traders know it’s all about simplicity.

Like ToffAppleton

Pap

“I wrote to Emma, Iain the FD about the dynamic of the dividends,”

If I can find the time this week I’ll write to investor relations and suggest they drop the dividends after the current one. And use the proceeds to buy back their own shares.

Glaxo is trading for chump change. If it was listed in the US it would be £20+

I can’t understand why the BOD haven’t seen the opportunity to buy back a slice of the company for a fraction of its true value. That’s what Barclays have done and that is a very well run company led by someone even I look up to.

Fats

“Earnings fell in 2020 and GSK have guided lower Again for FY 2021.
and not only have they guided lower, that lowered guidance is
predicated on....healthcare systems returning to normality in H2.”

It sounds to me like you’re trying to talk yourself into a bad investment. Guidance is approximate not exact. Earnings forecast was reduced due to higher CAPEX.

All the potential drawbacks you repeatedly mention have already been factored into the share-price, not once but multiple times. The SP plunge is a lot more to do with the modus operandi of the index and the way it values shares, than the company. Glaxo is the consequence not the cause.

Like most UK multinationals it trades at a huge discount to its EU & US peers.

TR6

VIR took a ten percent tumble today. As we all know the appreciation of Glaxo’s stake wasn’t factored into the shareprice.

But who would bet against UK market makers factoring that ten percent fall into Glaxo’s SP tomorrow?

Just for the record there’s legislation in place to eliminate latency arbitrage in the NYSE. To stop market makers profiting on a time disparity between traditional and algorithmic trades. I can’t see that ever happening in London.

Fats

“were you not tempted to sell a greater % before the XD”

Not really - it’s what’s known as hedging. I thought a third was a good proportion and as I had too much exposure to Glaxo so it was a rebalancing.

I knew I had to sell before the toxic ex dividend factor kicked in; it was a final opportunity before the plunge. I do believe Glaxo will come back so I’m going to hold rather than take a hefty loss. How long that will be I don’t know.

I’ve already recouped most of the money I lost on selling those shares on other trades. As long as I can see better trades I won’t be buying anymore Glaxo at any price.