Member Info for ToffAppleton1

Steve

There’re times when market cliches don’t bear up to scrutiny...

“Buy low sell high - share price here is at record low levels.”

1) many who bought into a company that eventually went bankrupt bought in low and still lost everything. Who’s to say what’s low and high?
When a share falls 90 percent it makes multiple new lows - most of which were later classified as highs. This applies to stocks in longterm downtrends too.

“Be fearful when others are brave and brave when others are fearful! “

2) an old Buffet chestnut here. Sometimes investors should be fearful as they stand to lose everything. Or when a stock is in the grip of a shorting cartel (like Glaxo is now) when market forces are working against you fear is healthy and greed foolish.

“Invest in value - the upheld yield here is good value”

3) Glaxo’s yield is also the stick shorting bears are using to beat the shareprice down. What good is a yield if market makers mark it down by 50-75p every time a broker issues a warning saying it could be cut.
No yield is preferable to one that destroys the SP

Gary

“Cant understand the point of dividends??”

That’s right. Dividends are toxic in uk markets. The level of market abuse is so bad that a bloodbath invariably follows dividend payouts.

Take today

Glaxo down 36.2 on a 23 payout
Imperial down 82.5 on a 48 payout
Shell down 50 on a 12 payout
Bp down 11 on a 3.9 payout.

But it doesn’t stop there...

Uk shares go ex dividend for 3 0r 4 days.
3 or 4 days of carnage - and eye watering losses.

Uk dividends are toxic.
Every shareholder should sell everything they own before ex dividend and buy back when the market makers finish trashing the shareprice.

That way you’ll get double - triple - quadruple - whatever the dividend was.

It shouldn’t be like this but the ftse100 is an extreme market. I really don’t see how it can continue. No normal market should function like that.
How can investors have confidence in a crock of **** like that?
Whatever dynamics are driving it has transformed it into a dysfunctional market.

Prediction for tomorrow:
Another bloodbath for all the shares that went ex dividend today.

Poker

“and..be able to PROVE anything conclusively”

The proof is in the shareprice action. Such as...

Shareprice plunging 3or4 times more than a dividend payout post-dividend

Shareprices plunging 5-10percent on wafer thin volumes. Usually a fraction of 1 percent of shares in circulation.

Shareprices plunging 10 percent on meeting market expectations.
Shareprices plunging when beating expectations (as with Barclays today)

You only get shareprice action like this in the UK. Other markets are regulated against it.

But as you say proving it would be extremely difficult.

Sentiment is so toxic around Glaxo now I’ve decided not to buy back any of the shares I sold before the dividend at any price.

I’ve put the proceeds into Barclays instead;)
Share buybacks support shareprices far more than toxic dividends

TR6

CS and other brokers who are shorting Glaxo through their investment arms and affiliated hedge funds will use the threat of a dividend cut as a stick to beat the shareprice down mercilessly.

The threat of a dividend cut has so far cost seven billion pounds and counting. By the time the MMs have priced it in it could cost as much as £20 billion off the company’s value.

No other stock market in the world trashes its most valuable companies like the UK. You only have to look at the incredible valuations of Dow and Dax companies to see their markets take pride in valuing their companies.

Isn’t it high time Panorama stepped in and did an exposé on a market (ftse100) that is ROTTEN TO THE CORE!

If you ask me the FCA are covering up to spare the index’s reputation. They know damn well what’s going on but are terrified of the damage a shareprice fixing scandal would do to the city.

I’d just like to add to that

The dividend is an albatross around Glaxo’s neck. Even the threat of a small cut has been enough to drive the shareprice down by several billion pounds.

This is the Permabear
And dividends are toxic.

Interesting to see that although Barclays reinstated a dividend it was only nominal (1p)

The bank has signaled its intention to return money to its investors through share buybacks instead.
The £700 million announced is equivalent to 4p a share. And they’ve stated that further buybacks will take precedence over toxic dividends. It also sends a statement out that Barclays are considerably undervalued. (Which they are)

Glaxo’s investors would be better off if the company cancelled the dividend entirely and spent the money on buybacks. They would bolster the SP boost the EPS and stem the shorting cartel. After all its pointless paying out 23p dividend if the SO us going to get smashed down by 80-90p.

Market makers deduct dividends on a ‘permanent’ basis too. They wouldn’t be able to do that with share buybacks.

CDS

“but I am confident the selling will continue for rest of the day, “

Hahahahaha. If only the selling only lasted one day but it doesn’t. Permabear shares go ex-dividend for 3 or 4 consecutive days. The time to buy Glaxo is Monday or Tuesday next week when the market makers have priced the toxic dividend in 4 or 5 times.

Shell is a little different. It’s only a small payout.

Smashes market expectations and still gets trashed.

“Barclays reported a profit before tax for 2020 of 3.1 billion pounds ($4.29 billion), well above the average estimate of 1.96 billion pounds from analysts' forecasts compiled by the bank”

It seems that meeting expectations is like issuing profit warnings in the Permabear.
And even when you beat them you get punished.

There’s no other market in the world that does that to its companies. I’m not in Barclays right now but they’re resumed dividends and announced a £700 million share buyback.

Sold one third of my Shell shares yesterday at 1388
Bought back today @1340

That’s equivalent to a 48p share dividend minus negligible costs.

I wouldn’t recommend selling shares before dividends in other stock markets but this is the Permabear. Dividends are toxic in this market.
Selling before and buying back afterwards is definitely the way to go.

Looking to buy some Glaxo back at 1220 or lower. Sold one third @1285

Next time I’ll sell all my shares not just one third. And buy back after toxic dividend day.

Interesting to see Shell in Holland was UP earlier in the day on the back of higher oil prices. But it’s uk listed shares were well down

That’s the Permabear factor in play.

Poker

“If you have the staying power and want to see though what you decided to go for..at the beginning....then....hang on in there“

Think a distinction needs to be made
Between traders & investors

Traders don’t want long term holds - they want to deploy capital into momentum stocks. Short term trades for fast gains.

Even if they don’t work out - sell at a loss - deploy the capital elsewhere - rather than getting saddled with a donkey.

Of course this is from a trader’s perspective. For those who hold longterm my view has no relevance.

CSD

“I've followed in toff's shoes and just sold 1/3 of my GSK shares @ 1274p.“

Bold move. I think you’ve made the right choice.

Although I’ve sold one third of my Glaxo shares I’ve no intention of buying them all back.

I was overweight in Glaxo and I needed to lose some.
But I will be buying some back at hopefully drastically reduced prices.

And the proceeds from the same have already gone into Meggitt (250 company)

Diversification is critical in trading.
And weighting also.

Symmetrically restored

Back in BATS

@2615

Should have bought in at 2570
But hesitated:-((

Great share for short-term trading.

TR6

“Its not that the value of investments is not reflected in GSK sp, its the UK listing that is the problem
GSK investment in CVAC as increased to $2.1 Billion from $126 ,million 6 months”

That is sooo characteristic of the Permabear 100
It only prices negatives in - ignores the positives

The Permabear is obtuse
The Permabear is deaf dumb and blind.

:-)

Good call on BAT

Results beat market expectations and the shares got smashed;)

CSD

“This does create a chance to buy at a 5 year low,”

The problem with new lows is that they’re often followed by more and more new lows. For those getting in at a new low it doesn’t mean the shareprice won’t go lower.

And repeated new lows equate to a downtrend.

And when a share is in a downtrend hyena hedge funds jump in and it becomes a war of attrition

Because these hedge funds know a lot of trading is executed on technical indicators.

So it scares buyers off much to the delight of hedge fund cartels loading their algo traders to inflict the maximum amount of damage.

Downtrends are hard to reverse
And the longer they go on the more bearish they become.

Bt was the biggest victim of shorting cartels in recent time even though there were no sizeable short positions declared.

Because these hedge funds shorting cartels avoid scrutiny by keeping their positions small and short term and doing it en masse (think of 10,000 bullets rather than a bomb)

As Papucel knows they program multiple 1 or 2 share sales to increase sell order volumes. These are the trades the FCA need to investigate.

George

“Well done Toff
Selling for 2780 yesterday for small profit ??“

Yes I bought in at 2682...

Druggie

“Nobody is shorting GSK....look at the Puts. No volume. “

You said exactly the same about Game Stop when it rose to over $400 - when in fact shorters doubled down on their short positions.

I don’t know where you get your information from but it’s way off base.

Only a small fraction of a company’s shares are traded on any given day. And it’s that volume that determines daily price fluctuations. When multiple hedge funds collude to short a stock they keep their positions under a threshold that goes unnoticed (shorting by stealth) but with so many of them trading the same way it impacts the shareprice negatively (this is what’s known as “leveraging the shareprice down” on trading floors)

Their algo trades are programmed to cause the maximum amount of damage with the minimum amount of attention.

They make a point of keeping a position low, but with a company the size of Glaxo there’s plenty of liquidity and the amount of shares available to trade which works in their (shorters) favor.

Seaking

“Who in there right mind would sell now”

I can assure you I am in the right mind.
That’s why I sold.
Only a third of my shares - but it’s already looking like a mistake. I should have sold all of them.

I learned long ago companies that pay above average dividends get smashed when they go ex dividend. There is not better time to buy than in the days afterwards when the market has trashed the shareprice. If memory serves last time Glaxo went ex dividend it fell by four times the 19p payout.
And there’s nothing like a dividend payout to send shares to the next level down in the

Permabear 100

British American Tobacco reporting tomorrow (final results)

Sold my small holding yesterday at 2780 for a small profit. There’s no way I was going to hold over a trading update after seeing Glaxo Unilever and Shell smashed after meeting market expectations.

If they get hammered I’ll be looking to buy back in.

Interesting to see the US hedge funds colluding to smash Glaxo returned again today after a day of respite. As is evident with the all too familiar afternoon bear-raids. Ex-dividend date in the UK is always a golden opportunity to short a stock to oblivion in the Permabear 100. Be prepared for the next leg down. And don’t expect the hyenas to ease up.