Member Info for ToffAppleton1

Rahu

“Russ Mould, AJ Bell’s investment director, suggested the reaction could be a short-term issue and investors could flock to buy stock at the cheaper price.“

I don’t know about that, but what he did say was...

“Russ Mould, investment director of AJ Bell, said Deliveroo "could prove to be a high-profile turkey."

A high profile turkey looks far closer to the truth!

Hahahahaha.

Deepblue

“Look, some of us banked a few grand worth of profit today trading ROO”

Just how anyone banks a few grand profit out of an IPO that bombed on its first day is beyond me - unless by going short.

I’m not being condescending or cowardly in any way - that’s merely the paranoia of a green trader misinterpreting my intention, which was to express an opinion. Just because subscribers have lost 25 percent on the first day doesn’t mean I shouldn’t be honest in my evaluation of Deliveroo. If you can’t be honest with yourself you’ll never made the grade in stock trading.

IPO’s usually rise on the first day and I guess many who bought in bought for this reason alone. Today was an ominous start to life as a public listed company. You can put lipstick on a pig but it’s still a pig, as exemplified by ROO’s shareprice performance today. I haven’t seen obscene valuations like this one since the peak of the dotcom bubble. What we have here is a 15/20p share floated off for £3.90. But good luck with your flutter anyway, it’s your money not mine.

Will be financed by the suckers who bought into this puppy.

Firstly, the company doesn’t make a profit, even though the pandemic provided the biggest tailwind it could hope for. That benefit will fade as lockdowns end and diners return to pubs and restaurants over the summer. Remember, too, that Deliveroo had to be bailed out by Amazon last year, and it continues to operate in a highly competitive market.

I just find it incredible that anyone could be stupid enough to buy into a grossly overvalued IPO. This one will go down in history as one of the very worst.

Valued at considerably more than Morrisons or Sainsbury. And what is it?

A delivery boy and loss making company. Good heavens! Intrinsically it is virtually worthless as an investment. Hard to put a price on it but 25p is probably realistic.

I predict there’ll be a cash call within six months to plug the gaping holes in the balance sheet. By then it should be less than £1.

And I am rarely wrong.

As PT Barnum said - there’s one born every minute.

CSD

“ think DB could also be in the frame to take a serious hit .... excellent news“

And I’m sure DB will take a good drubbing too.

There’re two important factors to take into account to fully understand how this happened.

One - the hedge fund used financial derivatives to amass massive stakes in companies without having to disclose them. I’ve raised this issue before regarding shorting by stealth by hedge funds. By using complex derivatives their positions go under the regulatory radar. This wouldn’t have been possible unless CS and DB hadn’t provided an almost endless limit of credit and assumed responsibility. And to think these banks dishing out sell recommendations and peanut valuations on thriving blue chip multinationals. That’s like taking advice from a serial bankrupt.

Secondly - and this is what really damaged CS. The hedge funds traders were structured using financial instruments known as ‘total return swaps’
These put the positions on the banks’ balance sheets not their own. So when the margin is used up the banks are on the hook for any losses.

And I’m happy to say those losses have been brutal. CS and DB are very similar banks, both run like casinos with very little risk management. They’re trying to emulate the investment banking success of Goldman Sachs, but they don’t have the talent.

Incredible. CS are covering short positions on Glaxo, inherited from the US hedge fund Archegos, that blew up.

In short CS are on the hook for tens of millions - money they lent to these cowboy cokers to play fast and loose. They were buying obscenely valued tech stocks while shorting solid blue chip companies.

CS have got badly burnt - once again showing the endemic immoral unethical conduct that defines the bank

What I want to know is will they get charged for insider trading?

Issuing multiple sell recommendations on a stock that your clients are shorting is criminal surely?

That’s the reason for this afternoon’s rise. CS are desperately scrambling to close their client’s positions.

I’ve had plenty of opportunities to buy into this share much cheaper, but it seems to me that the dynamics have changed. I’ve always known it was criminally undervalued but I also know it’s listed in the world’s worst performing index - the Permabear 100.

Anyway as a trader I believe BT is on the path to a longterm uptrend. Even with all the bent market makers and unregulated hedge funds that have kept it trading for peanuts for so long - i believe it can’t be kept down.

£2 by summer is my prediction

And I am rarely wrong.

It’s good to see the tech bubble finally bursting. What I’m waiting for now is a “Day Of Capitulation” when the index will crash 500-600 points; signaling the end of the bubble.

Markets being what they are - obtuse and Neanderthal, the crash will be a precursor to global stock market falls.

In the UK that will equate to the world’s cheapest shares falling because the world’s most overvalued ones have fallen. But markets are anything but smart. Any drop should be seen as a buying opportunity. (In the ftse100 not the Nasdaq)

Glaxo
Unilever
BATS

And anything considered value should benefit from the Nasdaq crash.

Glaxo looks like it’s on the ascendancy. I called 1188 as bottom after the results. It fell as low as 1290.

Not a bad call. I don’t expect Glaxo to fall back to those levels again. A steady uptrend is likely now.

And rightly so
Glaxo was ridiculously oversold.

CSD

The consensus is commodities are at the beginning of a super-cycle.

“There has been broadening consensus recently that a "Green
Revolution" is afoot, referring to the world moving to cut emissions, a shift that will boost commodities such as copper, which is heavily used in electrification.
More broadly, with a vaccine-fueled recovery from COVID-19 under way, fiscal stimulus to support consumer demand and a weaker U.S. dollar, some believe we are on the cusp of a broad commodities "supercycle" – a multi-year period of broad price increases across commodities.
Indeed, ING notes the commodities complex has seen its best start to the year since at least 2008. The last such supercycle lasted from early 2000s until around 2014, underpinned by rapid
Chinese growth.

I would argue we are in the very-early stages of a decade-long supercycle fueled by a Green Revolution that will result in a substantially larger metal-intensity in the economy.

Toli

“According to lse there are no shorts anymore”

Are you really that naive that you believe every short position is declared. Going short is just as normal as going long - the only difference is the transaction is done in reverse.

Glaxo has high liquidity because it’s a big-cap, that makes it easy to short because there’s never an issue finding available shares to short.

The hedge funds that are shorting some of the tens of millions of Glaxo shares are doing it collectively and short-term. Selling it down and buying back when it falls - sometimes on the same day.

Hedge funds collude with one another to do this - they program their algo traders with mathematical complexities to execute trades to get the desired results. They’ll do anything to stay off the radar, so keep their positions small to avoid scrutiny. What they do unethical but they’re only exploiting a flaw in the set-up. The collusion however, if it could be proven, would breach accepted market practices.

Hi CD

“Hi Toff
Notice the MMs kicked RIO by a fiver for £3 divi.
Not like you to buy before ex div.“

Yes I ignored my own advice and look where it got me:-))

Never again - but do I mean that?
It’s nearly always better to buy after the toxic dividend.

But I’m hopeful my reckless trade will still come good. Miners are riding high for sure but unlike techs their valuations are underpinned by sky high metal prices. Rio for example only trades on a p/e of about 12. Which is high for the Permabear.

Of course all that would change if metal prices were to plunge. But with the world on the cusp of opening up and a period of rapid economic expansion on the horizon I wouldn’t bet on it.

I do think Rio will fall to £55 before it climbs back up though. Dividends are a bruising game!

Denby

“OK TOF & fATS conclusion NO one can make money by just investing in a company and make money.”

I think the difference between traders and investors is:

Traders try and make money in the short term.
Investors have a longer term outlook.

I wouldn’t worry about Glaxo’s SP decline if you’re a long term investor. The current price will soon be forgotten about.

If you’re a long term investor, in it for dividends, it doesn’t matter if the SP is £12 or £16

As long as you didn’t intend to sell.

Fats

“is they are heavily reliant on the normalisation of airline travel”

Meggitt get a lot of defense contracts off the government. They’re better positioned than most aerospace companies.

I predicted a drop in the SP to £60 weeks ago. We’re well on the way now.

The hype from the vaccine evaporated when the profits weren’t forthcoming. It’s falling back to earth now - valuation is approaching normal.

Let’s hope it doesn’t get a Permabear 100 valuation like many in the index or it’ll fall to £40.

Can’t see that tho
I’m sticking with £60 as the floor.

Fats

“Chasing' dividends is usually the road to underperformance.”

As you know I advocate selling most shares before ex dividend date and buying them back in the post-dividend carnage.

But today I bought Rio Tinto @6345
They go ex dividend tomorrow
£2.88 a share

Miners are valued differently from the rest of the Permabear 100. It’d be a brave man who’d short mining stocks. They are by far the most valuable sector in the ftse100 now.

I’ve always liked Rio
It’s my preferred miner
The king of iron ore
No one takes it out of the ground cheaper

Not expecting to make anything on the deal
But if I can break even and pocket the dividend it’ll do.

Baffled

“I predict that a market correction will devastate some fairy tale stocks while solid, predictable, boring, unremarkable shares survive.”

The situation now isn’t too dissimilar to the dotcom era. The major diffence now is that valuable companies are hugely overvalued, whereas in the dotcom era worthless companies were trading on obscene valuations.

Back then any stocks with solid fundamentals paying dividends were derided as old-economy stocks and shunned by investors in favor of worthless dotcom trash.

Once again the market has decimated value stocks. The question is - will these beaten down stocks also fall when techs crash?

My guess is that they will in the beginning of a sell-off, but when the smart money starts to buy, value stocks will benefit. Any rebalancing of growth/value ratios in global markets will be swift. It’ll happen in weeks rather than months.

Techs can’t go on growing at previous levels forever. I understand some of the tech giants are among the world’s best companies but that doesn’t mean investors should pay 2/3 times their intrinsic value.

Stevie

“i cant see that ,,but it could get down to £11 which would be great,,my advice is to keep buying on the drop“

I called the bottom at 1188 right after the full year results. It now looks as though it’ll go lower. But at current levels it’s a red hot buying opportunity and if it falls to £11 it’s even better.

Guessing what stocks will do short term isn’t easy but it’s what traders do. I hardly ever use leverage, I buy stocks outright so I’m comfortable sitting on losses over the short term.

Stevie

One has to separate the wheat from the chaff on these boards. I’m sure you understand that being as you’ve been posting since 2016.

Anyway - you need to re-read my post I was referring to the ftse100 being a perennial under-performer not the wider uk market as a whole.

I’ve earned credibility on these boards (or at least I like to think so) because I make predictions. Predictions that are often right.

If you have any forecasts for stocks you think may be worth investing in, I’d be glad to hear about them; as I’m dsure others will. What I don’t want to hear is yesterday’s winners and yesterday’s trades.

So what are your future forecasts?

Stevie

Toff/i have been investing for 45 years,,i have over 2M invested,,

Oh pleeeaaase!!!
I ain’t no investor - I’m a trader
They’re polar opposites.

I also know anyone can come on here and lay claim to anything - however outrageous.

Like you for example.
Jingoism i suspect?
Is that the motive?

The most trashed stock market in the world but in the eyes of the patriotic the center of the universe.

All I can say is that you’d have made a hell of a lot more if you’d ‘invested’ in any other global market.
And the statistics back me up on that.
Unless someone is You of course.

But thanks for contributing anyway.
You kept the discussion alive
And gave ToffAppleton an opportunity to showcase his wit and literary skills;-))