Member Info for ToffAppleton1

Stewart

“What riles me is that this is the third straight day in a row the share price is sinking and not a single statement from Jope”

At some stage the market will start to price in the chances of a deal NOT happening. I think we’ve already seen the first traces of that this morning.

Since it went public there has been a tidal wave of criticism- and that has really turned the spotlight on the morons who run this company.

And like the proverbial rabbit in the headlights Jope has frozen - which you’d expect from someone of his ilk.

They must have got the message by now that the fallout from this potential catastrophic takeover has made their positions untenable

It’s up to the institutional investors to provide them with a pistol to bring an end to their tragic leadership.

With futures well down today and a takeover in the pipeline that has been universally condemned as insane, I can’t see anything other than another shareprice plunge today.

And the falls are gradually getting worse as the horrifying details and implications of this deal are absorbed by the market. And to make matters worse the proposed takeover has attracted the attention of every shorting institution in the world, putting further downward pressure on the shares.

I’m predicting another fall to £34 today
£32 by the end of the week.

But shareholders should take heart by the savage plunges because that’s the market telling Jope what they think of his crazed deal.

Only institutional investors can save Unilever from the abyss now. Jope’s tenancy has become untenable after this horror show. The shareprice was weak anyway - and in his peanut-sized brain he has sent the shares into meltdown with this crazed deal. I’m sure the moron didn’t intend it that way which only goes to demonstrate his obtuseness.

Jope has overseen one of the darkest chapters in the company’s history and for that he must go.

Fats

“and on assessing risk it's impossible to
factor everything in”

That’s the risk!

Jope has turned Unilever into a corporate kamikaze hell bent on self-destruction. The negatives for this insane deal are staking by the day. I just find it staggering that Jope was even allowed to make a bid.

“Ratings agency Fitch said that Unilever's bid for GlaxoSmithKline's consumer health assets would put the consumer goods group's 'A' credit rating at risk because of the huge debt it would have to swallow.
Unilever's 50 billion pound ($67.88 billion) initial bid for
GSK's consumer health arm, which owns brands including Panadol painkillers and Sensodyne toothpaste, was rejected by the pharmaceuticals company. ...
"Unilever's offer... is likely to raise Unilever's debt to an extent that it would not be able to reduce to levels consistent with an 'A' rating category over 2024-2025, opening the possibility of a multi-notch downgrade into the BBB category," Fitch said in a report.”

3569 on T212. Surely this price and over a 4% divi is cheap?

A 4 percent isn’t any good if Unilever have a £12 billion cash raise from shareholders to finance this insane takeover. (as is widely publicized)

That’s like you giving me a thousand pound and me giving you £40 back.

Paul

“I made a modest top up today of 87 shares at £35.86 (Inc tax etc.)“

Pity you didn’t have the good sense to wait till the end of the week. You could have bought for £32.

The market’s made it clear what it thinks of Jope’s deal to pay £60 billion for a bit of toothpaste and a few painkillers. It would be one of the most catastrophic takeovers in corporate history- any fool can see that.

Except for the moron leading the company.

The consequences of taking over GSK’s healthcare for double its value doesn’t bear thinking about.

I can only surmise Pfizer and GSK clocked they were dealing with an utter moron when they declined his eye watering £50 billion offer. Obviously they thought he was good for more.

Not a single broker has a positive word to say about this deal. Hopefully institutional investors will get together and show Jope the door. All he’s succeeded doing by making this crazed takeover public is shown himself to be totally inadequate to run a lemonade stand. And if he does get his way he will oversee Unilever’s ruin.

Freddy Goodwin’s ABN takeover jumps to mind.
And he was a megalomaniac psychopath.
In my opinion Jope is just a prize sucker.

Wise is in meltdown; for the third consecutive day it has plunged.

There’s no real news to explain it but one need look no further than the shareprice action to see there is something really nasty in the pipeline.

There are clues in the shareprice. And as usual the city has received the news while retail investors remain in the dark.

It’ll only be when Wise has been absolutely trashed retail investors will discover the bad news. In the meantime institutions are dumping shares at any price while retail investors are holding and hoping. And even buying.

Will tomorrow bring another huge drop?
Probably
And the drops are getting larger by the day.

Poker

“After the taxpayer losses on bailing out Nat West (RBS) which are estimated to be £38.8bn...the taxpayer has enough on their plate without getting involved with buying BT”

You’re comparing apples with oranges.
Nat West was a distressed company. Technically bankrupt. Government could either bail it out or face economic Armageddon and social unrest.

I don’t own BT shares but I do see the business as criminally undervalued. And that’s down to the huge intellectual deficit of British markets.

They know how to (over)value Ponzi schemes and cryptos but they don’t know how to value anything with any real value.

And as soon as any entity wants to buy BT the government jump in to scupper any deal.
How can a nation’s obtuse population be expected to be literate when it’s ruled be equally obtuse politicians.

Is it any wonder why Great British companies are continually taken over by coke-snorting asset strippers/adventure capitalists/vulture funds when the index is unable to value its most valuable companies fairly.

Maybe there’ll come a day when British blue chips are valued honestly but before that can happen London needs to eradicate the current market dynamics responsible for trashing our most valuable companies.

Tony

“I hope Polo Tang remains a permabear on BT”

With a name like Polo Tang how can you ever expect to be taken seriously?

It’s almost as ridiculous asToff Appleton;)

Anglo American + 65 percent
BHP + 43 percent
Rio + 17 percent

No reason for the huge valuation chasm
Only a pack of f**ktards could value stocks like that.

Rio need to leave the UK. Most of its major shareholders agree. Being listed in London is costing them tens of billions.

Mando

Rio is the king of iron ore. 75 percent of its profits derive from ore. No one takes it out of the ground more efficiently and profitably. They have the highest margin on iron ore of any miner.

Market makers have persistently beat Rio down and down. I know iron ore prices have dropped but the bonobos responsible for valuing shares have factored those falls in ten times. There is no correlation between the iron ore price drop and Rio’s plunge. They pick any number they like and it’s invariably a lower one - if they ran a casino like they do the Permabear 100 they would be shut down overnight.

We’ve arrived at the point where one of the world’s most prosperous companies is valued at peanuts and trading on a distressed company valuation.

Since the £4.04 dividend the market makers have slashed a good £18 off the shareprice. If Rio was in a decent market they’d double in value from where they are in the Permabear. Like BHP, Rio know the MMs are stamping the shareprice into the ground so instead of doling out huge dividends why not use the money to buy back shares for chump change instead.

I could go on all day about the valuation anomaly but don’t have time. I sincerely hope Rio will follow BHP and leave this horrible Permabear index. Their shares already trade at a 20 percent premium to the London listed ones.

Is it any wonder why so many British companies fall to overseas predators when the morons who value them are unfit for purpose.

While the USA and other countries take pride in valuing their biggest companies, the trash that value ours smashes them into the ground on any pretext, at every opportunity.

I

Potentially Rio could see a nice upswing from here hopefully if we see a good upswing in the materials pricing.

Don’t count on it. Coke snorting market makers have got it in for Rio. Trades on something like 5.3p/e compared with Anglo’s 20 p/e

The only upswing room will have is when it follows in the footsteps of BHP in 2022 and only lists in AU.

It’s not unusual for distressed companies to trade on tiny p/es but only world-beaters like Rio can trade for chump change on the cesspit that is the Permabear 100.

It’s an index that is incapable of valuing shares fairly.

Tim

“It's been straight down since the Italy scandal”

Investors always try to curve-fit when shares take a hammering.
But most of the time those unrelenting hammerings are totally unwarranted.
And no more so than with companies unfortunate enough to belong to the Permabear 100.

They uk market does not know how to value its most valuable companies fairly. Whoever is pricing these shares is clueless and unfit for purpose.

And it’s not just companies with issues that get Smashed on a daily basis. Take Rio Tinto for example. The ultimate cash cow. Second biggest mining company in the world. Pays out billions in dividends. One of the most successful businesses in history.

And it’s trading on a pathetic p/e of about 5
If Rio belonged to a decent index it would trade at at least double its current value. It trades at about a 20 percent discount to its AU value. As a Rio shareholder I’m really hoping they will follow BHP out of the door and list solely in Australia. (I also own BHP)

That’s the price you pay for belonging to the world’s worst performing stock market over year past 22 years. I’ve worked in the industry long enough to know the chronic washouts who value uk shares shouldn’t be allowed to run a lemonade stand.

Our companies deserve much better than the rabble that trash our most valuable companies.

“Drahi bought via Altis group shares for 2,2 Billion £ and sits on a massive paper loss.“

He certainly is sitting on a massive capital loss. (Reminds me of Buffett’s disastrous Tesco’s flutter)
But he bought in a lot cheaper than most BT shareholders.
Who are sitting on an even greater capital loss.
(Collectively) And have been for many years.

BUZ

“I actually took some profit on my BP shares today and added to my BT. Feel a good level to switch”

Common mistake among inexperienced investors.
Sell your winning positions and add to your losing ones. What usually happens is that the winners continue to rise while the losers continue to fall. It’s what’s known as momentum.

That psychology often leads to being overweight or all in on one stock. Invariably a losing one. Such as BT. I’m predicting 130 before the month is out.

And I am rarely wrong..

For those of you that don’t know
Bt is the definition of a bear trap.
It’s a share where most people are nursing hefty losses. Looks cheap, which admittedly it is, but that’s no guarantee it’ll revert to fair value any time soon.

I know those who bought in at £1 are in profit (but most of those have already sold)
anyone who bought in at £5/4/3/2 is out of pocket (and almost all of those are still holding)

People buy in because of its cheapness. Then as soon as they buy in they expect it to rise. And get angry when it keeps falling. Always the same crude psychology with bombed out shares.

Bt = Ultimate Bear Trap

Took a small punt on Qinetic today @285
Shareprice took a dive on disappointing results
Fall looks overdone to me
Fundamentals are sound
Negligible debt
Earnings took a hit on supply chain issues - which will only be temporary.

Of course I could be wrong on both counts
But I rarely am:-))

Diver

“I dont think many people would disagree, BT's venture into sport has been a financial disaster”

I would disagree. Multinationals spend billions annually on advertising. And with good reason.
Bt sport may not make much money but the advertising value is priceless. Bt is synonymous with PL football and box office sporting events. The revenue from advertising must be terrific. But most importantly it raises BT’s profile and makes it a household name. It adds relevance to the company. I don’t think disposing of it would go down well with the market. It could plunge to £1 on the news in my view.

Bling

“When news of BT Sport arrives, this will merely stop the rot”

In my view disposing of BT sport would be a massive own goal. Their sports coverage heighten the company’s profile and gives it prestige. It also gives it the opportunity to sell packages including fixed lines and internet. Then there’s also the loss of advertising revenue to consider.

If they do flog it off I can see a 45 minute shareprice rally followed by another interminable plunge when reality sinks in.

H-hi

“BT is a joke”

Maybe, but it’s a joke best avoided. Investing in shares that continually plunge is a sure way of losing your capital. The bearish sentiment that follows BT around like a bad smell frightens savvy investors away. Telecoms on the whole have been a disastrous investment for ages now. Vodafone is a stand-out dog which will also destroy your capital.