Member Info for ToffAppleton1

The fact that Astra will report their future earnings from vaccines independent of the rest of their earnings equates to ring fencing.
Is that because their Covid vaccine has been a disappointment financially?
I would have thought so.

Their vaccine has been a question of much ambiguity over its efficacy. It’s undoubtedly inferior to others on the market but I’m expecting their updates vaccine in the autumn to be much better.

Sheungy

“Dividend is not diminishing they didnt decrease it?”

Dividend $2.80 - worth £2.24 last year
But only worth £2.01 this year on a strengthening pound

= DIMINISHING DIVIDEND!

For those of us who know maths.

My apologies

“It seems that profits take precedence over revenue”

That should have been:
“It seems revenue takes precedence over profits”

Unlike me to make a mistake:)

Interesting to see the reverse happened at Glaxo; revenue came in marginally short but their EPS beat market estimates by a margin. Whereas it was the reverse with Astra. It seems that revenue take precedence over profits in the world’s most bearish market - the Permabear 100.

Once again UK market makers are demonstrating its en Vogue to trash value companies which marking growth companies up to valuations that defy logic.

Not a bad set of results overall. Revenue beat market expectations but EPS came in short.
Interestedly the reverse happened at Glaxo; revenue came in marginally short but their EPS beat market estimates by a margin. It seems that profits take precedence over revenue in the world’s most bearish market - the Permabear 100.

The dividend t was maintained at $2.80. Which was at odds with their claim to a progressive dividend policy. A statement of jam tomorrow if ever I heard one. In real terms the dividend is diminishing with a strengthening pound. And in my view I see the £ strengthening further against the dollar for the foreseeable future .

Unlike most of the Permabear’s constituents Astra is generously valued. On these results and current valuation there is a definite shareprice overhang; it remains to be seen whether market makers will continue to price Astra at a premium.

Cheated

“1. Borrow 4 billion to cover all expenses.
2. The CEO will pay for it out of her piggy bank.
3. The ' split hoard 'under the floor boards will see daylight.
4. Dividends will be drastically cut. Shareholders , in our life time, will never see any benefits but the banks will, gathering the interest on the loan.
5. The new company will start off holding the debt burden of 4 billion, and will not show a profit for 20 years.”
______________________________
That’s an extremely pessimistic appraisal; some would say irrational pessimism. There’s a belief among some shareholders that the split is a negative development and the cause of Glaxo’s recent shareprice dive.

My answer to that is that shareholders always go on a witch-hunt when a share they own takes a dive; erroneously accrediting fallacious reasons for the fall.

The brightest minds colluded to determine the future of Glaxo, shareholders should show more faith in their decisions. What we’re witnessing right now are retail investors having an adverse reaction to a temporary blip in the SP. I could be wrong of course, but Glaxo is a titan and the chances that your losses are permanent are remote.
I know you’re hurting from the content of your posts. My advice is to learn to tolerate short term pain because there’s nothing you can do to change the vagaries of shareprice fluctuations.

Shareholders are emotional.
Shareprices are indifferent.

Drug

“This is going to drop another 20 percent. The market clearly has no interest in 2 companies paying a lower dividend.“

Is there really any point posting now you’ve sold your 50,000 ADR shares?

Or do you still have them?
Because you sound like you’re still emotionally invested.

I’m surprised at you - a former Wall Street banker getting so erratic and hysterical over a loss. One thing we pros know is how to tolerate losses - it’s retail investors who can’t tolerate losses.

Which casts doubt over you Wall Street banker claim?

Rock

“05-Feb-21 13:06:59 £4,083.95 220,736 Buy* £9m“

I wouldn’t get too fixated on individual trades. The only number that matters is the current shareprice. That number is the accumulation of sentiment/buys/sells/news/broker recs and everything else

NewK

Do we really need to ask who is behind this perma-bear attack on GSK.

CS & DB often work in cahoots with one another. Anyone who has or had BT shares will know DB followed them around like a bad stink for two years - with one downgrade after another and an ever lower price target which bottomed at 75p

Deutsche Bank is the ugliest of banks. They nearly went bankrupt because of their complicity in the subprime scandal and almost lost their US license.
They just made their first tiny profit since 2014.
So whoever’s running that bank is no banker.
It’s not so much a bank as a rogue boiler room operation with a bank sign on their door.

I predicted CS would come in with a double-downgrade and that’s what’s happened. Talk about contrived!

But even with CS & DB & their clients and all the hedge funds shorting Glaxo I’d be surprised if it falls lower than 1188. Glaxo is no BT and their will be funds buying into it for value/dividend.

With so many companies slashing or cancelling dividends Glaxo is a must for income funds.

The paradox is (and this sums the bent uk market up in a nutshell) the merest hint of a dividend cut in the distant future is enough to wipe £8 billion of the shareprice. Whereas some companies that have cancelled their dividends come out unscathed.

One of the hallmarks of the Permabear100 is any negatives (or imaginary ones) are priced into the shareprice MULTIPLE times.

Glaxo has rarely been below 1285 since 2011. Any dips below this price have been short-lived.
The market has really turned against Glaxo; all good news is negated and negatives and amplified.

Market makers take their cue from broker recommendations when pricing (mispricing) shares, but in the UK they take their cue from the most bearish ones, which in Glaxo’s case are CS and Barclays. One negative rating carries the same weight as ten positive ones in the eyes of UK market makers, so expect them to follow CS not HSBC.
When a wave of negative sentiment envelops a share hedge funds collude to short by stealth and conspire to keep the shareprice depressed. Before the update they kept the price below £14 with concerted selling every time it rose above that level. The trading range has changed now - that level is now below £13.

Expect bear raids by hedge funds working in unison after any small shareprice rise. The bear raids will come in the afternoon - that’s when the falls will happen.
With so much downward pressure from market forces I expect the shareprice to follow the “line of least resistance” which is down for now. But if past performance is anything to go buy any drop below current levels should only last a few weeks.

There’s something rotten to the core in a market that values a company like BT with an in comprehensively low valuation.
First you have to look at the market it belongs to - the ftse100 (Permabear 100) the worlds worst performing index over the past 21 years. While other markets are making fresh highs the ftse100 languishes about ten percent above its 1999 level.
And you can understand why when you see companies like BT getting trashed by uk market makers, hedge funds, brokers and all the other scum responsible for valuing shares.
There’s something very wrong about a market that constantly burns and smashes Britain’s most valuable companies down.

But getting back to BT - we all of us know it’s criminally undervalued, but unfortunately this doesn’t mean it’s going to rise any time soon. Assets can stay undervalued for a very long time, especially when you belong to a market that constantly trashes its constituents.
If BT belonged to an EU or US index it wouldn’t trade at these levels, it’d trade much higher.
Uninformed people come on this board and use the same sticks to beat it down - if they had a second braincell they’d know those old chestnuts have been factored into the shareprice multiple times.
And UK markets getting worse. As we saw with Glaxo yesterday and Unilever and BT today - meeting market expectations means getting hammered down by the dark forces who preside over our most valuable companies.
A complete inquest and overall is needed to get to the root cause of this malaise. I don’t see any other country in the world smashing their stock markets down.

My personal opinion is that because regulation is lax in the UK it’s become the shorting capital of the world. While other global index trade near all time highs the UK has become the place the whole world comes to to short.

Papucel

“Also I observed when Fat is busy to reply TR64 disappear from the radar”

While I agree with you about fats I think you’re wrong about TR6. He posts loads of valuable information about Glaxo, and I think he’s very bullish about the company too. Definitely not the same person (TR6 is educated whereas fats isn’t)

Neil

“appears the FAT PROFITS guy is a bit of a player and loves himself a lot! “

There’re a lot of posters on these boards with very little to say; Fats has got a lot to say about very little. I don’t know how he makes money on markets but if he does it must be very little. I’ve said it before he’s not the sharpest knife in the kitchen (and he’s uneducated). I filtered him out, not because he has opposing opinions, but because he has nothing to say of any value.

As seems to be usual these days meeting market expectations incurs the same reaction as missing them.

Today is a wonderful buying opportunity. I doubled my holding @£41.18. Average is £42.

It’s a fantastic business and the shareprice is underpinned by the threat of a takeover. Any drop below £40 will bring Warren Buffett back to the table and markets know that.

It’s important to distinguish the difference between the two.

“The Shell results will also quickly be forgotten. They are largely accounting rather than cash losses, the result of a giant write-down in the future value of the company's oil fields and prospects.”

Making a profit in during the pandemic is astonishing testament to how well Shell is run.

“The $140 bln oil giant earned $4.8 bln last year as rivals made losses. Next week’s strategic overhaul is unlikely to involve big cuts in crude output or BP-style wind power targets.

Royal Dutch Shell on Feb. 4 reported a net profit for 2020 of $4.8 billion, after stripping out one-offs and the effect of price changes on inventory, below a $5.1 billion forecast from a company-provided survey of analysts. Fourth-quarter net profit was $393 million, compared with a forecast of $597 million.
- Shell said it expected to raise its dividend for the first quarter of 2021 to 17.35 cents per share, up 4% from the previous quarter.
- Shell’s net debt rose to $75 billion at the end of
December from $73 billion three months earlier. Net debt is now 32% of total capital, up from 31% at the end of September.“

There are some countries multinationals should never do business in, and Nigeria tops that list.

“Royal Dutch Shell needs to take another hard look at its onshore oil operations in
Nigeria due to continued problems with theft and sabotage, Chief
Executive Ben van Beurden said on Thursday.
A Dutch appeals court on Friday held Shell's Nigerian subsidiary responsible for multiple oil pipeline leaks in the
Niger Delta and ordered it to pay unspecified damages to farmers, in a victory for environmentalists. ...
Shell maintains that the spills were caused by sabotage. In
November, it also lost a Nigerian high court case that could lead to $44 million in damages for spills.
"Our onshore oil position, despite all the efforts we put in against theft and sabotage, is under challenge," van Beurden told reporters, saying it was a headache.
Shell's Nigerian onshore joint venture SPDC has sold about 50% of its oil assets over the past decade, he said.
"But developments like we are still seeing at the moment mean that we have to take another hard look at our position in onshore oil in Nigeria."

Drug

“with no guidance on how they plan to payout on the 2 new companies.”

Get real!
You’re blaming the company for circumstances beyond its control. Glaxo can’t see around corners - corporate divisions aren’t an exact science. They can give guidance that’s all - and bent market makers can fill in the banks with anything they want.

It’s not the fundamentals that are pulling Glaxo down it’s the dogs who run the market.
You’re obviously unaware that the ftse100 is a crock if s**t in the thrall of organized crime.

Didn’t you ever wonder why the Dow has nearly quadrupled since 1999 which the ftse100 has risen a derisory ten percent in the same time frame?

TR6

“GSK at £12.89, with full employment and paying into the treasury, making profits and all the City can do it try to take it down for fun”

On top if that Glaxo makes almost all its money overseas; about 95 percent I think. Because it’s based in Britain and lists in the ftse100 cesspit it pays all its taxes to the uk treasury.

In return it gets trashed by bent market makers. Exposed to unregulated hedge funds who collude with bent brokers and market makers to smash it down.

And as we saw today regardless of results. Truth is obsolete in UK markets. They place their bets - fabricate a reality - and collect their winnings. At the expense of honest investors.

Glaxo needs to relist to somewhere where it can be protected from market colluding criminals for the sake of its shareholders.

Burning a country’s most valuable companies down on absurd pretexts so market bandits can profit is no way to carry on.

Cheated

I think we all feel cheated today. As an experienced trader I’m used to shares getting hammered if they come in even just a little short.

But today Glaxo got hammered on meeting market expectations.

The trap was set. Two minutes after the results were issued at midday CS and their army of hedge fund accomplices bombarded Glaxo with sell orders to drive the SP down

It was an ambush. One which has been signposted for some time.

The FCA needs to investigate.

1)The timing and volume of the orders after midday
2)The inordinate amount of tiny algo sell trades for 1 or 2 shares (a devious method designed to drive prices down)
3)The hedge funds responsible for the coordinated attack
4) crédit Suisse’s part in the drama
5) distortion of distant possibilities into statements of certainty.
6) the shafting of retail investors
7) market collusion to determine SP direction
8) forming cartels for profit

Any many more...