Member Info for Tobin

We have to wait.
There are other companies that may deliver multibagger returns if they come good, but they equally could go bust. You just would not want to "bet the farm", or even more than 10% of a porfoliio.
TXP at these prices is a rare beast IMO were the share price is well covered by future earnings and has very significant upside in a stable jurisdiction.
You can invest a much larger part of your portfolio and just wait. 2-3years it could be 2-3-4x what it is now, and very, very unlikely to be less. If it is less its probably going to be even a better buy.
JLP looks similar, PETN also but less attractive given recent rise.

Ive know I ve said this before but I think this is worth repeating; the Royston well was an exploratory well. It was drilled with more the expectation on gas but found oil in 3 zones.
The well was not optimised to extract oil from any of these zones.
Development wells are likely to be drilled differently, into different places in the structures. They are likely to deliver significantly better flow rates than the Royston well is doing
I would look at Petrotal. 95% water cuts, but with long horizontal wells, with AICDs the latest wells are delivering 8000-10000 Bopd initially which is why their share price has rocketed.
I doubt we will see these at Royston as the permeability of the sands at Petrotal are very good and high aquifer driver; but with fracking? that PB has mentioned in the past, production rates in the 1000s bopd ?
Time will tell.

CM: If your an investor surely lower price are more attractive, your down 22k, but that just gives you an opportunity to buy more at a lower price.
If you don't believe the story or the company can not deliver then maybe you should cut your losses and let others have the opportunity to buy your shares at a lower price.
Probably read some Warren Buffett first though.

I'm agreeing with Prof. They spend big on acquisitions and investing in plant cf £37million but still have more cash, even though some of the investing in plant reduced output during upgrade.
Plenty of cash coming in and they are seeing opportunities to invest and grow. Thats what it is about.
Any accountant can slash investment and push up short term profits, that was a lesson I learnt from British Leyland 30years ago.
"Overall, the investment in capital expenditure over this period totalled 19.3 million (ZAR 414 million) with a further £ 17.7 million (ZAR 380 million) invested in acquisitions, leaving cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period under review standing at £ 21.7 million (ZAR 466 million), compared with £ 19.6 million (ZAR 384 million) at the year ended 30 June 2021.

So to rephrase that. In the half year £40M spent on capital investment and acquisitions and still cash and equivalents go up by £1.1M in 6 months."

TG5 From your posts one is Landor, I prefer JLP.

Thanks MJ, your referring to XMs twitter post.
I think its important to remember that the Royston well was drilled as an exploration well ultimately targeting and finding oil in 3 different reservoirs.
The next well will be a development well targeting just one of these zones. Optimally drilled, placed, perforated; AICDs if necessary etc.
From PB presentation it sounded as if they maybe producing upto 1000bopd from Royston.
A development well will likely produce significantly more.

but the BB is quiet.
interesting

I agree re sticking to TXP, but I try to inform my opinion with information.
I will try to stick to twitter.
Talking of twitter XM has been busy tweeting.
Some interesting maps, and he seems taken by CGX striking oil of Corentyne.
Seems positive.

It can take a long while to get over covid, though the same goes for influenza.
If there are any who havent had there vaccine or booster then the latest stats from the intensive care, you want the latest report, page 46
https://www.icnarc.org/our-audit/audits/cmp/reports
60% of covid patients coming from the 10% unvaccinated. The Stats don't tell the the whole story as those vaccinated and boosted are the highest risk and elderly. The unvaccinated are generally middle aged.
The unvaccinated will likely take up increasing percentage on ITU.
Hopefully TXP will be as successful as the vax!

Im not really into conspiracy theories; experience tells me that its less conspiracy than co..up,
There are risks around but I look to the US stock market that on many metrics look as over valued as it has ever been and chinas property market. Then we have putin and ukraine.
So where to but your money? Even cash is a poor place if we have high inflation.
Fortunately we still have TXP, and the world is going to need oil and gas for quite sometime.

Yes, but the share price bothers me less; I'm looking for value that is underpriced. A "healthy share price" is what I am looking for when I sell!

JLP are not in the business of cleaning up dams unless there is resource in the tailings dams that make it worth their while. JLP are not a charity and Leon made this quite clear in the last presentation he made. Obviously if there is remedial work that needs to be done, and there is a lot of dams that do need need remedial work then there may be opportunities....

Shore capital sum of parts valuation 240p
https://*********************/
I only have access to the abstract, anyone with an account care to share more detail?

PB said in one of his earlier presentations ( pre any drilling) that he thought that some of the targets in the Ortoire may need fracking; I wonder if that will be the case for the lower Royston zone. There's oil but it didn't sound like the flow rate was particularly high because of the relatively low permeability?

Vallance said early on the real covid deaths are not the real number of deaths, what matters is the total excess deaths and its one of the few things that he said that I agree with. Certainly many who die within 30 days of covid may have died of something else anyway, and most deaths are in older people but the calculated loss of years of live from each death is still about 10years each for the UK. But there were many deaths in the community in the first wave that probably died from covid, especially among the elderly, who where not diagnosed as having covid because there was no community testing.
And many deaths have occurred because the health system has been at times overwhelmed with covid.
On the other hand probably as many have died in the uk in the past 2years from smoking, and average loss of live there is about 10years each.
But you need to look at the excess deaths and also appreciate how many deaths would have occurred if we hadn't had the lockdowns and had massive community spread before vaccines. Total deaths in the first year of covid from the herd immunity approach would have been north of 500k, maybe closer to 1million.
Fortunately we have the vaccine and its stopping deaths. If your not vaccinated stop reading twitter, and talk to your GP.
PB has it seems got over Covid, I am sure he will have been vaccinated; he has his head screwed on.

What I was really meaning to post on, having listened to PB presentation again is that PB said ( 32.30) that after they drill the 2 wells at Coora they are going to move the new rig to Royston and drill 2 wells there.
with Cascadura ready to come on in July they are still intending to drill more wells at Royston first rather than more wells at Cascadura.
One can only conclude that they see more money coming out of the ground at Royston than at Cascadura, or certainly more quickly.
Obviously it is likely that the initial flow rate at Cascadura is likely to be quite high and will fall, but maybe 90mcf/day. That is probably $5million/month. But PB is clearly thinking Royston wells will bring in more, or they sure would drill more at Cascadura first. If this is the case and maybe they get $50/barrel net back at current prices each Royston well would have to deliver more than $2.5million/month or 50,000 barrels/month, or 2,000bopd.
It also sounds like they maybe moving up to 1,000bopd from Royston at least some days during testing from an exploration well, so optimised development wells producing 2,000bopd doesn't sound unrealistic; and it could be significantly more.
Time will tell.

Sorry, GP registered population 61.5million.

Hopefully your assessment of share data is better than your assessment of covid data! As your on TXP forum this may be the case.
Covid deaths are very heavily driven by age, and most older people are vaccinated, but when they end up in hospital and die significant numbers will have had covid in the month before they have died. It doesn't mean that covid killed them, though it may have contributed. We see the same every winter with influenza or with norovirus but the statistics are not gathered.
The reason there are not huge numbers dying like last year, or even more, is because of the vaccine.
Probably about half of those ending up on ITU are unvaccinated, but they are coming from the may be 4-8million unvaccinated, and primarily from the probably 1million unvaccinated over the age of 50.
Interestingly it is hard to be more precise because we don't actually know how many are unvaccinated because we do not know how many are people are in the country, The ONS statistics of population is about 56million, but the GP registration statistics are about 6.5million. And even though the ONS data is based on a census done just last year most people believe the GP registration data is probably more accurate, certainly the NHS monies are distributed on GP data.
When you start to understand this then you start to understand why you really want to get vaccinated.
And when you start to understand risk/reward is why you should keep buying TXP.

what's the source re the cobalt circuits?? Tx

Malcy has ADV in his bucket list but seems even more positive since his interview with the CEO yesterday.
"I have commented a number of times that this well offers significant potential upside with pretty low risk exposure for investors and that the company is providing plenty of updates as drilling continues. The management and indeed the board in total have impressed me with their strategy and I look forward to seeing the results of this well. "

https://www.malcysblog.com/2022/01/oil-price-advance-energy-and-finally/