Member Info for Tobin

Historical there has often been a discount but not always. And arguably there shouldn’t be when a company has such a successful record.
I think there was a hope that the discount would narrow on entry to the ftse 350 but alas not.

Share price is up but there seems to be a lot of red on the trades. Something the MMs know?

More purchases. Buying at such a discount has to be a good idea but quite limited.
It will be interesting to see what comes out at the AGM

So suspension pushed out further.
I still consider this a company with a great future but with such a low market cap I can not see how they can raise the cash they need by fundraising from PIs.
If Australian PIs where keen they would be buying on the AIM at these prices.
I suspect it may get bought out by a bigger player, or taken private.
There would have to be an offer, it looks like sirius minerals all over again.

Well recent RNS have shown purchase of own shares. Sensible but small and why now? They have had the authority to to this for years but we haven’t seen this.

I dont think we have seen the porosity of cascadura but the porosity of carapal ridge is in the order of 17%,.
https://cupdf.com/document/carapal-ridge-1-recompletion-2-fluids-recap.html
It sounds like the porosity is similar to this, the obvious offsetting wells are carapal ridge, there are not many other or any significant gas wells. The question is always how much gas.
The wells are deep so the pressure is high, porosity seems reasonable but we will have to wait for the testing. it there is a lot of gas the pressures will pop right up, if they dont ....

Broke £30 for the first time. Would be a red letter day but I am also heavily invested in TXP so double red letter.

From RNS “The team has commenced planning production testing operations in the Herrera Formation using the same equipment that verified the Cascadura discovery.”
Presume this means the special off shore testing kit.
This has to be very positive, or why say it???

Its a little more than this. Assessing reserve is a science with large confidence intervals. Much of the assessment of the reserves is on the basis of that this looks like what has been found before ( Carapal Ridge), and everything we are seeing ....seismic, geology, gas pressures, flow rates etc etc are the same.

The "dilution" was very limited, 8%, and significantly the money raised was at little or no discount, indeed at todays price a premium.
Your share of the pie is slightly smaller, but the pie just got bigger. Your piece of pie weighs the same.
The cash they raised the company are spending on what they believe to be a great opportunities to make more money, faster.
So this is not the dilutional raises that are at big discounts and allow the "in-crowd" to fill their pockets at PI expense.
I continue to trust the management on this.

Thanks for posting, good summary by PB.

The tailings quantities are not quite as high as some guessing. The Zambian government resource department estimated 17.72 million tons.
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/189848/cape-lambert-resources-secures-environmental-clearance-for-cobalt-exploration-in-zambia-189848.html
Its still a lot of resource, 75,000 tons of cobalt, but do we have better grasp of the processing costs, likely extraction rates and the costs of putting the tailings back into some sort of better state?

M2, in the past gas on T+T really had no value at all which is why Shell back in the 1950s gave up the drilling in this area. NG doesn't have the value it does in some places but it is what it is.
So this gas will be mainly be used as an industrial gas, such as turned in to methanol.
Methanex, the worlds largest producer has plant in T+T that is under capacity but they will only pay so much for the gas. They are looking at a new gas plant in Louisiana, Geismar 3, and are penning in a price of $2.90/mmbtu ( mmbtu aprox equal to mcf).
So $2.50 off the well looks a reasonable price.
https://www.methanex.com/sites/default/files/MX%20Business%20Update%20Investor%20Presentation%20July%202021%20-%20FINAL.pdf

I like the pizza analogy. Placings like this for the long term investor should be seen as a positive. Even with shed loads of money coming in management are seeing shed loads of great deals that warrant the placing; and city investors agree enough to pick up the shares at a very modest discount.

I agree that TXP is markedly undervalued on what it has already found, which is why I still have a good six figures in it.
However we didn't see a SP rally on spud which is sometimes what happens. So I dont expect to see a SP surge at TD.
If Royston is a duster I suspect the SP will go down. Maybe into the 60s, maybe less.
I am sitting on quite a bit of cash now. I don't like the way the US markets are; they look like one of the biggest bubbles in history on the basis of many metrics ( Buffet indicator). But I will buy more TXP if Royston looks good, or if the SP falls.

PB has said that Casc and Casc deep both will need more wells to drain them at any reasonable rate ie over a decade or so.
And there is the original cascadura deep target that they have tried to drill twice but "failed". I would like to see what that has to offer.

New high.
Continues to start at the bottom left and end at the top right of the price chart.
Double SP over 5yrs.
A lot to like.

Thanks Cardo
Something of a Pandora’s box.

Hi DrLinus
Have you any reflections on JLP?
You have been on the board since 2017 and now your first post.

Jonah58, I agree. Especially in places like Zambia where there are lots of legacy mines, and the companies and country has little expertise and even less cash there are clear opportunities.
Colin Bird, Non Exec chairman of Jubilee has his fingers in many pies, and one of these is BMR, CB was appointed as a director I believe as a potential joint venture with Jubilee but BMR ran into trouble and was delisted from AIM. What became of this?