Member Info for Tobin

I was just looking at the Xmas game we did last year on the board. I was quite conservative I recall; 115p
Looks like I may be on for a win, I don't think we said which Xmas did we?
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gmjhgbGhFPDpTIpcB77JXBo3-8GhWd3wzXvWvWYG5Z4/htmlview#

Hopefully I will be wrong, I was last year!

Either not all analysts think the same or analysts don't have much influence.

Its strange that the price dropped, you would have thought the analysts would have been on their phones to their clients?

I like the line:
"We see Jubilee as highly cash-generative with exceptional ESG credentials."
,,,"Exceptional ESG credentials" are important for many investment funds.

There's actually a tower crane index, I think they actually did used to count tower cranes and in the USA they still do.

I still wonder about Cascadura Deep target. They have tried to get to it twice and "failed" having hit huge amounts of gas on two other zones but they must be still keen to see what is down there.
And if that exploration well is not successful they can still use it to develop the zones above.
Or am I missing something?

https://www.reddit.com/r/TouchstoneTXP/comments/rcefvv/chances_of_a_placing/
But a placing is likely to be small, I suspect less than 10%.
I too have said this is a clear possibility before.
And though it can look like a dilution you have to remember than the company after the placing is the same company but with now more cash. The dilution for PI is not the cf 10% but the discount to SP the placing is made. If it is at a 5% discount a 10% placing is ultimately a 0.5% dilution to PIs in real terms.
If the extra cash is used for more rapid role out of exploration as it has been in the past then PIs can see a bigger return much more quickly, providing that there is indeed future success.
As I believe they will continue to see further success then I am quite relaxed about this scenario.
Ultimately if you believe in the company and its management then you should to.
Otherwise don't invest here!

Thanks for the direction to the Asset Retirement Supplement.
https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_41f44659abf34bf5da1fe1c2f3408a76/dgoc/db/562/4383/pdf/DEC_Asset_Retirement_Supplement.pdf
The value of this company imo does depend heavily on this.
"the major assumptions" is the area of risk.
If gas is not allowed to flow for up to 75years?? reduces income. Gas prices may go up, but they may not as we decarbonise and you can not hedge decades ahead.
We have seen the increase spend on reducing leakages and being shown to reduce leakages. One of the major things to come out of COP26 was how much methane is increasing global temperature. This isnt going away.
There maybe increased efficiencies in plugging costs, but then I can see increased costs especially around complying with increasing regulation.
The ARO cash account earns 3% interest. Again this maybe subject to more regulation; like we have seen companies hit by changes in pension liabilities and having to cover this long tail liabilities by buying bonds. Treasury 30year bonds are at 1.8%. It doesn't seem much but when you start projecting over 40-50-60-70 years ?
I still think these issues, how much can be paid out in future dividend and ESG issues will way heavily on those who should be natural buyers of such an asset such as pension funds. Share price is reflecting something.

Corpse: Crapping as in Thomas Crapper ... 2 ps pls, lets keep some quality up on these boards!

re ESG This came up at the AGM and in this presentation, They were an early signatory of UNPRI in 2007.
This side of things is important for a number of their corporate investors such as pension funds.
The risk is that they turn down good investments. I did raise this with Sir Laurie Magnus and certainly one of the other companies he is involved with is more than happy to invest in companies such as tobacco which they feel may be over sold because of ESG bandwagon.
For Pantheon they don't see it as so much an issue as many of the firms they are ultimately invested in are in technology, healthcare, support services etc.
Certainly hasn't damaged their performance so far but for those that believe the world is changing and needs to change then this means that the companies of the future are going to be found in the venture capital sector today. And if your also interested ensuring your money is invested in companies that hold ESG principles highly for a "better world tomorrow" then Pantheon remains a good investment IMO, DYOR.

I still don’t think they have properly accounted for the plugging costs of their tens of thousands of wells.
And yes I’ve looked at their accounts
But happy if someone wants to correct me on this; the yield is attractive

The latest NAV last week was 394.3p, or at todays price a discount of 18.4%.
It is certainly more reasonable and looks like the share split has worked.
Arguably logically the company should trade at a premium given its long term out performance but it has rarely traded at SP=NAV.
The company has also stopped buybacks though again logically even at 18% discount buybacks would increase NAV as well as increasing the buyers to sellers and both effects would increase SP.

This doesnt sound as if Stuart Young "gets it".
As an investor I often put the " country first" in my investing decisions. There are countries that I prefer not to invest in. I have been reasonably relaxed about T+T, but that can change.

The YouTube video by journalists from Bloomberg of all people's rather points this out, the company somehow got the plug rate decreased. So they are plugging 144% of 70 wells legally required.. so 100/yr? So 700 years to close them all?
The numbers don’t add up; it looks like they are pushing of liabilities to keep cash flow and dividend up. It’s going to bite them sometimes and that sometime is likely to be sooner than later.
One think that I gleaned out of COP 26 is how big an issue methane is for global warming, in the order of 0.5C.
Leakage and plugging is going to be a big issue for DEC.

Plugging methane leaks looks cheap, a few hundred $/well, but the costs of plugging these wells isn't; in the order of $20,000/well. https://phys.org/news/2021-07-reveals-key-factors-abandoned-oil.html
Maybe on bulk the company can get this down to maybe $15,000/well but with 70,000wells that is a liability of more than a billion $. I don't see that this is properly accounted for or am I missing something?

https://www.malcysblog.com/2021/11/oil-price-kosmos-petrofac-touchstone-and-finally/

Interesting that Paul is in London, the “wall of cash” is coming but it’s not here yet and there are now 2 big rigs on the island that can drill the deep wells to commercialise these discoveries, and there are plenty of exploration wells yet to be drilled.. kraken, steelhead but also Cascadura deep (surely has to be drilled to know how to develop the 2 Cascadura zones we know of)
In the short term that means cash.
I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a raise. Some small dilution for faster roll out and bigger return??

Go Linton!,go Linton!…just go.

Made it to the AGM, thanks to my ever persevering wife.
Voted for the 1 to 10 split that will no doubt be announced soon, and come in from the 1st November. They have been advised that it may make PIN more attractive to retail investors. They maybe right but I doubt it will narrow the discount much. But maybe it will be teslas share split?!
The wide discount does vex them, and though when I asked Sir Laurie Magnus at the Q+A if there would be more or larger buybacks he was properly noncommittal not wanting to give the message that the company would become the buyer of last resort; but he did not that they had made recent purchases and did not rule out more.
Notably John Burgess who joined the board in 2016 has increased his holding in the past year from 39,982 to 193,063; so nearly £6million. A man with long career in PE ..Candover, and then joint founder of BC Partners ( formerly Baring Capital).
A knowledgeable insider buying in big, what's not to like?
Founder Roddy Swire was there still, sitting in the audience having stepped down in 2019 ago from the board after his 9 years as is guidance for ftse 350 companies apparently. I said in 2019 that I felt that this was inappropriate and that continuity was more important; so it is good to see he is still around and still involved.
I spoke to a couple of PIs including one who was the original tax inspector for the company 30+years ago, as well as SLM and several of the directors, their auditor, etc. Remains vey much what it has been all the time I have been investing with them; a professional and friendly team who I am sure will continue to guide the good ship PIP from bottom left to top right though there will no doubt be a few waves along the way.

VLRM ...Block chain... "Little gamble"???!!!
I have just been to Pantheon international Agm (again), 12% annualised growth for 30years and it is sitting at a huge discount. go figure. Like TXP the managers come across as knowledgeable, honest and approachable.
While we wait, I still like Jubilee, and also JZ capital a Split cap that is heading for wind up and the ordinary shares are sitting on an even bigger discount huge discount.
But arguably TXP is at an even bigger discount to its "underlying NAV"; which is why it remains my biggest holding.