Member Info for TimberTrader

If it's any use, I've posted the following before on here about how Newmont Mining, with assumptions, correlate a rising gold price with reserve value, with, essentially, reserves increasing by 5% for every $100 increase in the price of gold.

They show this in their annual accounts, as follows:

QUOTE

GOLD RESERVE SENSITIVITY

A $100 increase in gold price would result in an approximate 5 percent increase in gold reserves while a $100 decrease in gold price would result in an approximate 6 percent decrease in gold reserves. These sensitivities assume an oil price of $75 per barrel (WTI), Australian dollar exchange rate of $0.70 and Canadian dollar exchange rate of $0.75. These sensitivities assume all other inputs remain equal, including all cost and capital assumptions, which may also have a material impact on these approximate estimates.

UNQUOTE

Typo should read $2443, not $2433!

Currently @ $2433, just $7 shy of the all time high of $2450.05 on the 20th May....

https://s.tradingview.com/dailyfx/widgetembed/?hideideas=1&overrides=%7B%7D&enabled_features=%5B%5D&disabled_features=%5B%5D&locale=en#%7B%22symbol%22%3A%22FX_IDC%3AXAUUSD%22%2C%22frameElementId%22%3A%22tradingview_c0f8c%22%2C%22interval%22%3A%22D%22%2C%22hide_side_toolbar%22%3A%220%22%2C%22allow_symbol_change%22%3A%221%22%2C%22save_image%22%3A%221%22%2C%22studies%22%3A%22%5B%5D%22%2C%22theme%22%3A%22Light%22%2C%22timezone%22%3A%22exchange%22%2C%22studies_overrides%22%3A%22%7B%7D%22%2C%22utm_source%22%3A%22www.dailyfx.com%22%2C%22utm_medium%22%3A%22widget%22%2C%22utm_campaign%22%3A%22chart%22%2C%22utm_term%22%3A%22FX_IDC%3AXAUUSD%22%2C%22page-uri%22%3A%22www.dailyfx.com%2Fgold-price%22%7D

Nice steady increase in the gold price today.

Currently @ $2434, with a high of $2438...

(They clearly meant to say Newmont)

Newmont and environmental regulators are still working to fix two troubled tailings dams at the Telfer gold mine, months after production was switched off.

The US-owned company shut down the Pilbara processing mill twice in the past eight months because of problems at the dams — and the plant has been out of action since April.

The reservoirs were used to store waste products from mining and processing gold.

Newmont was issued a directive by the Department of Water and Environmental Regulation in late June, armed with concerns the wastewater would cause pollution.

The notice specifically gave Newmont 30 days to empty the dams but The West Australian understands the reservoirs had already been drained following an emergency order months earlier.

The order requires Newmont to keep the dams empty until leaks have stopped.

It’s not clear how much has seeped from the dams or exactly what is in the wastewater.

But documents previously lodged with the Environmental Protection Authority related to the Telfer plant suggest the tailings were expected to contain chemicals including cyanide and sulphate, common byproducts of gold processing.

A spokesman for DWER said the latest directive “facilitates the continued dewatering of (the dams) as necessary”.

He also said the notice would ensure the company “can continue to undertake required emergency engineering and maintenance works.”

A Newmont spokeswoman confirmed production had been suspended since April this year.

“All water has already been removed from both (the dams) TSF7 and TSF8 following engagement in April with DEMIRS and full remediation is underway,” she said.

“Newmont is working to bring Telfer back into production safely, responsibly and as quickly as possible.”

Worksafe said an investigation into the Telfer tailings trouble was ongoing.

“Prohibition notices for the tailings storage facilities at the mine remain in place,” a spokesman said.

Telfer had been operated by Newcrest until the business was acquired by Newmont in a whopping $26 billion deal in October last year.

Newmont swiftly moved to put the site and a series of other mines up for sale with a price tag of roughly $3b, labelling the operation a “non-core asset”.

But the tailings troubles have been a headache at the 47-year-old operation, which in the 2023 financial year produced about 350,000 ounces of gold....

https://thewest.com.au/business/mining/tailings-dams-at-telfer-gold-mine-in-the-pilbara-still-a-headache-for-newcrest-environmental-regulators-c-15304633

An interesting comment...

https://www.mining.com/mining-vs-ai-whats-wrong-with-this-picture/

Why funny? I've always signed off business emails, and the likes with 'Kind Regards', and still do.

Apologies, ignore that. I understand the potential confusion. However, as others have said, Palmer did indeed talk about weeks, not months.

@ culpepper. The piece states "until Q3 this year". If it was Q3 in the financial year it would be 1 January to 31 March, which has already passed.

- Newmont is selling Telfer and its stake in Havieron after taking over Newcrest Mining in a US$15bn deal last year

- That means the M&A potential of the Paterson Province in WA’s East Pilbara has been blown wide open

- Newmont-backed Antipa Minerals is one of the biggest resource holders across the district, holding the 1.8Moz Minyari Dome project and JVs with Rio, Newmont and IGO

The first step to rejuvenating the 32Moz Telfer has been uncovered in the form of the 7Moz inventory at the 70:30 Newmont/Greatland Gold Havieron JV.

.....But with the underground development only likely to fill a portion of Telfer’s enormous processing plant and a number of challenges around tailings management at the Telfer mine itself, a premium will be placed on additional discoveries made in the surrounding region.....

https://stockhead.com.au/resources/telfer-for-sale-asx-juniors-could-play-a-role-in-the-consolidation-of-a-legendary-wa-gold-field/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Stockhead%20Morning%20Newsletter-07-11-2024&utm_content=httpsstockheadcomauresourcestelferforsaleasxjuniorscouldplayaroleintheconsolidationofalegendarywagoldfield&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=AM%20NL%20July%2012%202024&utm_content=AM%20NL%20July%2012%202024+CID_8b08bbb882bbb8b63acf10dc6b8141a5&utm_source=Campaign%20Monitor&utm_term=Telfer%20for%20Sale%20ASX%20juniors%20could%20play%20a%20role%20in%20the%20consolidation%20of%20a%20legendary%20WA%20gold%20field

Even Antipa have published the piece...Hmm...

https://antipaminerals.com.au/investors/in-the-media/article/77-the-australian-telfer-for-sale-asx-juniors-could-play-a-role-in-the-consolidation-of-a-legendary-wa-gold-field

Indeed! I've said before, several times, that, IMHO, and is often the case with M&A activity, the final 'outcome', in terms of how it's done, and which organisations (Mining/exploration/other, financial & state) are involved, could be very different from what anyone has even suggested.

Indeed! Looking god @ $2410 currently...

https://s.tradingview.com/dailyfx/widgetembed/?hideideas=1&overrides=%7B%7D&enabled_features=%5B%5D&disabled_features=%5B%5D&locale=en#%7B%22symbol%22%3A%22FX_IDC%3AXAUUSD%22%2C%22frameElementId%22%3A%22tradingview_37cf9%22%2C%22interval%22%3A%22D%22%2C%22hide_side_toolbar%22%3A%220%22%2C%22allow_symbol_change%22%3A%221%22%2C%22save_image%22%3A%221%22%2C%22studies%22%3A%22%5B%5D%22%2C%22theme%22%3A%22Light%22%2C%22timezone%22%3A%22exchange%22%2C%22studies_overrides%22%3A%22%7B%7D%22%2C%22utm_source%22%3A%22www.dailyfx.com%22%2C%22utm_medium%22%3A%22widget%22%2C%22utm_campaign%22%3A%22chart%22%2C%22utm_term%22%3A%22FX_IDC%3AXAUUSD%22%2C%22page-uri%22%3A%22www.dailyfx.com%2Fgold-price%22%7D

OK, just as some financial background, the POG has risen from approx. $2000 to $2400 in the past year or so.

Newmont Mining, as you'd expect, with assumptions, correlate a rising gold price with reserve value, with, essentially, reserves increasing by 5% for every $100 increase in the price of gold. They show this in their annual accounts, as follows:

QUOTE

GOLD RESERVE SENSITIVITY

A $100 increase in gold price would result in an approximate 5 percent increase in gold reserves while a $100 decrease in gold price would result in an approximate 6 percent decrease in gold reserves. These sensitivities assume an oil price of $75 per barrel (WTI), Australian dollar exchange rate of $0.70 and Canadian dollar exchange rate of $0.75. These sensitivities assume all other inputs remain equal, including all cost and capital assumptions, which may also have a material impact on these approximate estimates.

UNQUOTE

So, if you correlate this with Havieron, our reserves (and, OK, I accept that you can argue on the probable v proved reserves question), but, on that basis, they'd be up around 20% currently on the POG alone.

The POG hit an intraday high of $2393 on Friday, and has a high of $2391 so far today....

Newmont puts funds into junior gold explorer Antipa

"American gold giant Newmont has put funds into a junior explorer which will use the money to examine the potential of a site near the Telfer mine in Western Australia...."

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=TAWEB_WRE170_a_GGL&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theaustralian.com.au%2Fbusiness%2Fdataroom%2Fnewmont-exercises-topup-right-to-maintain-86-per-cent-stake-in-junior-explorer-antipa-minerals%2Fnews-story%2Ff0017bc2bddd91de58d9121686209fec&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium&v21=GROUPA-Segment-1-NOSCORE&V21spcbehaviour=append

Wall Street sees green lights for gold next week; Main Street jumps back on the bullish bandwagon

https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2024-07-05/wall-street-sees-green-lights-gold-next-week-main-street-jumps-back-bullish

That looks just like the sort of classic post that Freddie would make! Oh! It was Freddie! Lol!

Looking for a motivated Mechanical Technician to support Telfer Operations with maintenance of key surface assets, carrying out Maintenance tasks in the Processing Plant.

Getting ready for all of that exceptionally high grade gold ore from the South East Crescent!

https://www.newcrest.com/careers/current-opportunities?job=982179

Just short of $2370 today, but clearly rising. I'd expect $2400 in the next few trading days....