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Thanks to all those offering a view on the HnP note. Consensus seems to suggest it’s a load of rubbish.
I hope that the Swag 2020 results arrive Monday so we can get that monkey of our back and then a slow and steady re-rate back up to 28p ahead of the interims. If somebody could ask the FED to fix bond yield rates and stop them rising that would be good before the gold price drops below the 1750 resistance please.
Must keep the faith here but I will be glad to see the back of February.
I read it as 600k AU for 30 years which is 18m oz. I hope I have read this wrong.
I get the point on gold price and the long term but the upside assumptions would be much higher if HnP started at $1500.
If someone more intelligent could review the HnP note and establish what they are actually valuing it would be much appreciated.
I wish these brokers would adopt a standard method for valuing a stock. This note reads to me that they assume a tier 1 mine. They guess at its longevity and then estimate an annual yield. Build in some guesstimates on cost and gold price and hey presto a number just over 30p.
The note then cryptically talks about uplift in valuation when more resources are found. Why can’t they just value the MRE so we and the rest of the investor world can work on a long term SP growth as the resource grows.
Beyond an initial 5-10% market response this note is not going to encourage the SP to 40p anytime soon. Bit deflated by that.
Also see a red flag in the gold price at $1900. All the majors benchmark on a sub $1500 figure. Hmmm.
To try and be helpful, you have a cost of getting out the ground and a cost of selling it. Havieron is located 45km from Telfer, a billion dollar plus mine processing facility that is running out of ore. Costs are therefore going to be low - let’s say $500 an oz. gold is at $1800 an oz so that £1300 dollars an oz profit.
Grades are relevant but Newcrest are also recognised as one of the worlds best block cave miner. 1 g/t is currently 3-4 times higher than the current Telfer grade being processed.
You say you missed out when GGP were £50M market cap. I would respectfully suggest you might review your decision now whilst the SP is momentarily in the low 20’s. you have 10 working days left to the interim results which will be the 14th exceptional set of results in a row at Haverion and will include words such as still open at depth and not yet defined the full extent attached to the RNS.
GLA
It’s hard to understand the market at the moment. I can’t help feeling sentiment for GGP has shifted after an amazing 2020. It feels like investors are ignoring the fundamentals. You have to keep reminding yourself the whole sector is down I suppose but it’s bonkers!
Annoyed at myself for selling - yes. Should have waited a week. But we are all here to make our point. You all remain invested and want the stock to go up. Good luck to you.
Your saying I shouldn’t point out the obvious. Shares go up as well as down.
Long term I think you’ll do well here. Just don’t expect the price to go from 30p to £1 in a straight line.
Me to JohnZ. Worse still sold OMI at 29p on Thursday. There is a 30% gain I am never going to see. On the other hand the aim of the game is to make money and I was 30% up on OMI when I sold. If you hold GGP then patience is all you need. The OMI board is always comparing the two stocks and I see as much upside in GGP over the next few weeks as I do in OMI.
Note to anyone who wants to point out my stupidity and thinks OMI is so much better investment than GGP. Check out the PAT graph. A 50% drop can and probably will happen here at OMI. The question is whether the news RNS expected next week will act as a catalyst for a proper restate to 50p or whether sell on news happens.
Good luck all.
Evening all - need a bit of therapy so sharing my journey.
It’s all been a bit of a rollercoaster the last few weeks. Have a real mixed feeling over the drop. I sold 40% of my holding in the run up to Christmas with my last big sell at 35p. I bought into three other mining stocks to diversify after being exclusively GGP for most of the year. Then the drop. Ouch.
I now find myself 90% back in GGP again. Bought back at 26.5p (oops - to early) and 22.5p (1 day to early). I am really hoping this has turned the corner now. I have no reservations about buying back. I very much hope by the summer I will be thanking the MM for dropping this. For now I am just going to ignore my end of year account balance and the 25% portfolio drop in the last 6 weeks.
The patient will be rewarded here. Good luck all.
I appreciate the early enthusiasm but +5% doesn’t really feel like they have let it go. If we can hold 25p at the end of the day that will be progress. It’s going to take a few weeks to get back the right side of 30p but it will get there. Absolute HOLD and BUY the dips if you have the spare funds.
GLA
SW. I appreciate hearing your views and you are at least setting out your figures. I just don’t accept that the company is valued based on published figures alone. Hope value and investor sentiment is what drives all stock prices. Look at Tesla!
Anyway, hope you manage to get in at a price you are happy with. 50p to 66p by the end of the week might be a tad optimistic but I wouldn’t be surprised if we get there by the PFS.
Good luck
Good financials. Also spotted significant cash reserves. Be interesting to see if they continue to grow the pot over the next 12 months and position themselves for a buyout of Hav. The PFS is the trigger for buying the 5% and would be the obvious time to make an offer.
Kitco interview today highlighted all of the gold majors generating billions of surplus cash and there is an increasing likelihood of takeover / m&a as we move through the year. GGP must be on the majors radar and the current SP must be tempting takeover talks.
No it’s not SW. total Hav drilling was about 130km in the first 18 months and they have already earned in 60%. It was a lot more than $20m spent. The next 65km is a substantial uplift in drilling and will go a long way in expanding the resource.
By the way the SP figures you claim don’t allow for the potential of the project. I think you have turned up tonight hoping to add your own spin on the situation hoping to hit your target buy price of 18p. If you had a little longer term vision you might have bought in 12 months ago....
Companies like Newcrest don’t include speculative resources in their reserves. This is now a committed project and has been the minute the MRE was published.
The brokers need to step up and reissue guidance with a sensible risk rating. 66p unrisked x 75% = 49.5p.
The whole mining industry is down in the last 4 weeks but it can’t last. I expect a reversal in the SP back to 33p current broker rating before the interim exploration results in 4 weeks and the next MRE update in April at the latest. It is written in black and white that the 65,000 expansion drilling is to the end of June. So much going on to drive shareholder value here.
At 23p I can’t think of a better stock than GGP. Unbelievable price!
GLA
Robert66, that’s a great find. He states that finding traces of gold and a series of geological signposts is really exciting for Scallywag. If I interpreted his comments correctly he is saying there is gold down there!!!
Looking forward to further Scallywag drills this month. Could well be this week as it’s SD’s turn in charge.
GLA
Rob, I have seen this before too. Looking at OMI’s journey there will be significant PI shareholders who have tripled their position here and want to move on. It could be warrants. This is what makes calling the market so difficult in stocks with limited liquidity. All it will take is for us PI’s to decide to hold and the price will go up. The old adage of time in the market springs to mind.
If our JV partners step forward in March and step up exploration then all you have to do is nothing. Unfortunately, for most PI’s doing nothing is the hardest thing to do!
Phoebus, as someone who sits and stares at the GGP share price daily I can assure you that good news has rarely been met with a SP uplift. The sell on news brigade will be gone today and I expect (like GGP) this to move up to the next price point in the next week or so. Now is the time to buy and hold. Looking good for OMI.