Member Info for Tildo

One happy bi-product of all this is it might stop NCM Hav sell rumours and force business as usual full steam ahead activity until Newmont completes purchase.

The closer we get to first ore then the harder we are to ignore on my view and I can’t see this sale process concluding for a good few months.

Also think a GGP buyout becomes more certain with the new owners.

Interesting to see how market reacts this week.

LA - if there is a right of first refusal then that would change everything. Given that GGP can’t expect to raise £800M without help then it’s the terms of any help that would be of huge interest.

I can’t see first right of refusal on Telfer so that’s a major complication.

Not sure uncertainty equals SP upside but would be great to see 10p on speculation rather than 5p.

Good luck all.

Lots of noise for a Sunday.

I am always amazed that investors in GGP seem to think NCM place the same value on Hav as GGP do. Have you seen the size of their gold resources and inferred assets.

I’m not saying Hav and Telfer are irrelevant to NCM, or to a buy out but if anyone thinks your going to get a spreadsheet detailing the true value of Hav out of this buying process then your living in cloud cuckoo land.

The article spells out a confidential due diligence process and value will be attributed to Hav. NCM won’t need to openly declare this unless it suits them to do so.

If we get lucky then an unwanted bid for NCM May see a change in them talking up Hav but it’s far from certain.

Personally, the only thing that matters is if NCM get bought what changes this may mean for a GGP buyout or accelerate progress on the mining side.

Having bailed on GCAT for a big loss I would like the chance to get my money back but I would be amazed if sensible terms could be agreed for funding without significant share collateral being issued.

We were all expecting funding of 13M quid. Based on the mcap of £5M you’re looking at a minimum 2-1 issue ratio. With funding secured could you guarantee the SP hitting 1p again without some solid production figures?

As soon as dilution hits then I might consider investing again if RM is removed. Whilst he stays I wouldn’t invest again.

Sad state of affairs this….

Another news day another failure by the markets to respond. I feel that the markets / investors have now accepted Havieron as a proceedable project that will continue to grow in size so you have to wonder what is going to move the SP up.

NCM are not going to overstate reserves and its simply not in their interests to ‘big up’ the project for our benefit. NCM are sat on 61moz of proven reserves (June 2022 figures) with double that in the pipeline so whilst I am sure their shareholders are interested in Havieron it now just forms part of the background noise. Its just another line on their already impressive spreadsheet.

I also feel that FS and DTM are also priced in with GGP. It may de-risk the investment and attract some more institutions but at some point the remaining PI speculators are going to exit here. My best guess is this changing of the guard will occur over a period of time after the RNS on FS and DTM are given. Resource upgrades should help us break back into the 10p+ range in my view. 12p (+50%) by the summer would be excellent progress and hopefully give investors who subscribe to charts and Lassonde curve theory a reason to go long.

From there I believe there are five factors that could move the SP.

1 – The Gold Price. If this moves as expected back above $2000 and onto an all time high then all gold producers will all benefit.
2 – GGP sets out its business plan based on the newly generated free cashflow in 2023 and beyond and includes a dividend forecast or my preference, a share buy back. This would peek institutions interest and move us up.
3 – GGP gets bought out. If the gold price fly’s this year NCM (and other producers) will all have unexpected windfall profits. This could allow the new NCM CEO to revisit the opportunity to take out Havieron. This remains the most probable end to the story in my view. A 20p-25p £1Bn+ buy out based on the recent share price history would surely get the job done.
4 – GGP uses its free cash flow to invest in new gold producing projects. This would be in line with SD’s ambitions to grow the company.
5 – Discovering Havieron 2. This feels like a long shot based on the last 3 years exploration efforts but could transform the company in to a serious mid cap producer if we get lucky.

The only macro downside risk is a Gold Price collapse which seems very unlikely or mismanagement which also feels unlikely.

All in all, GGP remains a superb investment for those looking to the medium / long term. Its time as a day traders delight are hopefully behind us and I am backing the team to sustainably grow the business following the last two years challenging SP journey.

Good luck to all invested.

A 12k loss on this one Mickey crystallised last week after the Chairman went. I’m as entitled to my view as anyone and you suggesting the only way is up is faintly ridiculous.

What a mess. There is a very real chance GCAT are insolvent. If the SP tanks to 0.25p tomorrow dilution won’t even be able to save them. Either way shareholders still holding here are on a one way ticket on my view.

Best case is a company sale to an established player but once the money lenders get their cash out there won’t be anything left for your average PI.

Doomed.

Hope you are right Mickey

100% agree AP.

Feeling let down this week. I had my finger on the sell button of a 30% gain when we hit 1p three or four times before Christmas but I believed the funding RNS and felt that the company could be well positioned to ride the gold price wave.

Two weeks later and OCIM funding gets pulled. Could have still got out with a 5% gain but I held and then doubled down first at 0.6 and again at 0.5 to be presented with the Friday 4:30 RNS.

Robbie has until Monday at 8am to get another RNS together with a replacement non-exec, some funding update or exploration success otherwise it will be another 20%+ down.

What’s most galling is that funding is the route of the problem and the worst the share price gets the more dilution will be if they run out of external funding options.

Anyone have any views on a takeover position. Somebody is going to make these assets pay at some point. I just hope it’s Caracal.

Good luck to you all.

The lack of regular consistent format gold production figures is a major oversight here. We all understand that GCAT are on a journey and with funding I am confident 2k oz per month plus is achievable. To fail to report and explain the operational issues is a major erosion of confidence.

Muldoon - this is why an explanation is needed. There is missing information here and that may be for good reason.

Investor confidence will take another big hit here.

An explanation is needed.

Once OCIM paid money then ‘conditions precident’ would presumably be step in rights if GCAT failed to produce the gold.

Given the recent nature of the deal what’s changed? Without an explanation from RM it will be presumably be Caracal not wanting to proceed with the deal as they are going to miss targets giving OCIM control of the mine.

Yes, RM is right to step away from the deal but it begs the question who is going to step in without similar conditions precedent.

It’s a mess.

I am a shareholder and i’m taking a medium term view with this one.

You can only conclude all the ramping hype and short term Hail Mary trader brigade hoping for a quick multi bagger are responsible. A lot of them will be taking money out before the Christmas break and may well get back in come January so I expect an uplift back to 1p first week back.

I don’t believe sell prices hit 1p in the last two weeks otherwise I might have bailed out. Fortune will favour the brace here though and a run on gold into the new year above $2k oz could see GCAT and other goldies fly.

Best seasonal wishes to you all.

Morning all,

Like most on here, I can see upside from the current £400m company valuation.

Benchmarking good producers based on their stated reserves is one way to look at it. Last time I looked Newcrest were valued around £200 per ounce. Based on this GGP would need a 2 million ounce reserve. The more ounces the more value we would be.

Gold price would obviously enhance the value. I have high hopes 2023 will be a breakout year for gold.

We are already seeing signs of exploratory drilling slowing down as they are shutting up shop in the wet season. There will be less of a drive to expand the resource after the next update. I fully expect in time that Havieron will exceed 20m ounces but I don’t think we will get close to this as a proven resource for a long while.

The final share price driver is what SD and the board do with the free cash flow from selling the gold. My preference would be a stated plan for a c£100m buy back or dividend per year. This would drive us back towards a £1Bn company. Excess profits could go into company expansion and rapidly progressing exploration on other licences.

Here’s hoping we can get back above 10p early in the new year as some of these major announcements Land.

Good luck all.

Future valuation is a difficult assessment and I don’t think broker notes are not that helpful.

If GGP are considered a miner then i did an assessment a year ago using bigger miners reserves linked to Market Cap. Newcrest came out at $200 per ounce.

The other valuation approach is to look at dividend payouts to Market Cap. If GGP’s model is to return cash to shareholders every year then this could drive up the share price.

Simply dividing applying 30% of 20moz is unlikely to be how the company is valued.

Be interested in others views.

Been watching with interest and decide to buy again this morning at just under the placing price. Looking at the NCM results and their own ongoing issues I think we have been lucky with timing to retain the 30%.

I believe SD will want to confirm funding sooner rather than later and the placing shares and cash generated will manifest tomorrow. With funding terms agreed and our path forward clear I hope we see some momentum back to the 12p-15p range before the confirmation on mining and upgraded resource is issued later in the year.

I would also like to see SD be more active on exploration and associated updates outside of the Hav and Juri JV. The potential of new exploration success seems very low on the priority list and it would be nice to see more on other potential assets and new discoveries.

All the best.

Important speed bump on the journey tonight. It was never going to be good.

If SD has his stuff together the RNS will include bank credit secured against the $60M to cover all costs to development.

If this happens then there is a small chance of a blue finish. Otherwise it’s down down down….

I’ll hold my hand up to a 1M share sale today. I couldn’t resist over extending my position when we were at 64 last week and the RNS having landed has worked to my advantage.

I still retain a healthy number and am now waiting for 100+ before I take any further profit.

Really pleased with the progress at GCAT. Good luck to all.

After considering the position all morning I also have another 1M tucked away now. Been buying aa the price keeps dropping and each time feel like I got a good deal until the SP drops again.

Difficult to believe I am in at 0.7 when the CEO bought three weeks ago at 1.035!

Patience is key as when this goes it has the mote tail to multi bag quickly in my view.

Good luck all.

I think that the last few days Gold Price has not been helpful to underlying sentiment but this stock definitely feels like a coiled spring to me. When news drops then this will move quickly in my view.

Lots of logical points made on Robbies share purchase. He openly stated they have no intention of raising at these low prices and he must be very confident in near term news to push up the SP to position himself in this way.

Patience is key.