Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Having reflected on yesterday’s news i can only see positives based on known information and logic.
We have a rapidly advancing mine and GGP are a 30% partner who doesn’t (yet) have funding to pay their share of the costs. The 5% was included in the deal for just this reason and it should put GGP in a very healthy cash positive position after deduction of costs. This gives us security and reduces further dilution risk and allows us to get on exploring other opportunities with future cash flow guaranteed.
This all adds value to the company which makes us a better Institutional investment opportunity and we only lose 1/6th of our main asset.
It also might provide a platform for a significant buy out of GGP as a whole, but only at a massive premium to the current SP given the future potential. Yesterday’s announcement makes a full buy out much less likely in my view and I believe SD’s long term multi tier 1 mining company remains on target.
Outstanding long term prospects here.
GLA.
The valuation rules will be set in the contract. Any discussion on valuation must surely raise the issue of a full GGP / Hav buy out. All of this gets done by mutual agreement I hope as low ball offers based on proven resources knowing how much more is down there would tarnish the NCM reputation.
Great news for GGP and the SP I hope.
Rosso,
Not many on here would dispute GGP are undervalued. You need to benchmark the junior explorer sector which, for the sake of argument, is down 50% this year. By threat rational GGP’s performance is a little less terrible.
Oh, and your earlier post needs to take a broker valuation as 25p for 30% of Hav, not 100%. I do understand the point you are making though.
Come on POG!
It has been widely predicted here many times that we are in for a 12p share price and seems like that is where we now are.
Here’s hoping the market recognises this as the floor and we can build from here.
Good luck all.
Good post.
Option C example of 1.5Bn offer for 30% Hav. How as a shareholder can I extract value unless the board back the deal with a cash back special dividend? SD as CEO could only accept a cash deal if the money released the buisness to do its exploration or invest in other company growth assets otherwise he is simple hollowing out the business. But as a shareholder I don’t see this working for me as you have sold the prize asset and the SP would drop substantially even with piles of cash in the bank. I just don’t see this working for anyone.
Has to be option A or nothing in my view. It’s the only way everyone wins assuming of course the offer is good enough.
It was the proactive q and a sessional and he referenced 30/50/70 percent buyouts. It wasn’t a throwaway comment either but a gentle warning to investors of what happens if the company stays way undervalued.
To be fair to SD he may have been thinking medium term after updated MRE and further drill results.
Welsh,
The principle behind buyouts ain’t complicated. Somebody offers to buy your company for a price. Due process determines if a company accepts or rejects the offer.
If you want to ignore this possibility carry on. Each 1p drop makes us more attractive to the big fish swimming in our pond.
Anyway, taken her rumours would boost the SP so quite how you reference my post as de-ramping is beyond me. But then I have been green boxed so presumably talking to myself anyway….
All the best.
Two days to drill update and we hit a full year low of 13.8p. Surely NCM must be considering a full company buy out given their free cash flow situation. A £1Bn/24p offer would be an absolute steal and before someone talks about responsible partnership and not low balling the JV partner, £1bn MC for a explorer and a 20x share price valuation from JV to buy out is the dream ticket for any junior explorer.
Seriously worried about the buy out scenario as I see 50p as possible once in full production in 2023.
Read all the comments since the RNS. I am still struggling with the timing of the raise and need SD to issue out a coherent explanation, ideally next week but certainly at the AGM.
If it is bank funding and a precursor to Newcrest not taking the 5% and of the bank funding and raise money get us through 2022 then faith will be restored. If it’s to buy a micro cap explorer then game on.
As annoyed as I am now I never took SD to be a fool so there must be a reason for the timing. In 10 weeks we will have an updated MRE and we all hope a 20p plus share price.
Confused. Something does not add up.
Very poor form this and smells like a desperate move. Grabbed a piece at 16.7p yesterday and now this which opens the door to a certain drop tomorrow. Guaranteed that any investor with cash will be able to buy at 14.5 or less tomorrow.
Lost a little faith today:-(
…. That Greatland are a exploration company and this is what we do best. Follow this up in the next couple of weeks with an update on exploration drilling on other resources that includes finding some gold and let’s hope this puts the SP back in the ascendancy.
Anybody wondering where the funding to drill is coming from? GGP are about to become the best funded explorer on the planet as silent partner to the worlds most exciting new gold mine.
Brilliant news this morning. Well done SD!
Can we get a sense check on NCM reputation being damaged if they ‘steal’ Hav for 40p+.
GGP SP was 1p. NCM enter JV. NCM spend $200M proving up GGP world class resource. NCM pay £1.8bn for proven asset. This I believe is every minor explorer juniors dream ticket.
What am I missing…..
Takeover vs non takeover. Why argue. Both offer shareholders financial gains. Takeover SP would need to be attractive so 40p plus in my view based on current information.
Non takeover is a much longer play and relays in my view on long term high dividend returns to drive shareholder value.
The argument here appears to be over which camp your investment strategy sits.
I think odds are firmly in favour of takeover / buy out of Havieron and it gets done in the next 6 months. We shall see.
If a full takeover is coming it will be in the option period in my view. Agreeing a 5% valuation puts a price on the remaining 25% and if Newcrest want it then our only hope of a better price will be a rival bidder.
SD’s multi asset mid cap minor business plan is the only plan he can communicate to protect shareholders but I’m with others that a COO role alongside a £2Bn offer price for Hav is a done deal.
Either way there is a lot of money to be made backing this stock. We shall see.
Indeed 28th for next update. That’s 10 trading days plus today. Results will be great again but it will be more of the same, very unlikely to include anything firm in terms of resource update. It might include step out drilling on new targets outside of the main ore body though.
Any investor has to be clear on upside vs downside here. I don’t see downside unless you are looking to get out on a short timetable.
16p was the recent bottom and we are back there again today.
Takeover or not, GGP market value at £650M is exceptional value considering the huge upside being signposted.
Surely it’s a strong buy!
No. 1.9moz plus 1.6moz plus copper. There is still a destinction between the two resource classification. Only 28% of known mineralisation included and only results up to Feb 21 used.
It’s all in the report.
Thanks Hydrogen - I appreciate your thoughts. Threat of a buyout makes sense for driving up the SP and it has always felt to me like a 50p for Hav offer after PFS would get the job done. SD has to talk up the long term growth point plans of course.
At least a buy out would make investors minds up on when to sell up.
Interesting week ahead.