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Good post Unimaginative,

There is a risk to shareholders that GGP’s lowly MCP of £350M makes it an easy target. Least best option here in my view is a massive equity raise to Wyloo to buy up the 70% and Telfer.

Even that scenario could yield a decent return if the Hav / Telfer valuation exceeds £1.2bn.

More balanced thoughts would be welcome.

Would be good to know exactly why Telfer /Hav didn’t make the cut for Newmont.

Seems like some exciting months ahead. Options are 1) GGP go it alone with debt finance or 2) some sort of tolling agreement with Newmont at Telfer that divest the long term future of Telfer to GGP or 3) a new party buys up Telfer and/or Hav and we get a new partner.

I don’t see Newmont walking away as I was under the impression the JV defaults to GGP if that happens. Obviously Telfer is separate.

The SP could go up fast if things become clearer over next few days.

Markie is correct.

It’s also far from clear that fundraising will happen via a placing. The RNS also talks about strategic partnerships , letters of I tent to fund from the US Governement and other funding streams.

BRES have all the classic risk reward challenges other explorers have. At todays £8.3M valuation it surely has to be worth a little investment.

All the best

People are assuming Newmont would sell Telfer and the 70% and that a huge cash deal would be needed. However, a deal could take any form. For instance, a profit share arrangement for as long as Telfer stays open would be an excellent hands off way of making a long term return for Newmont.

All things are possible. My moneys still on the status quo. I think we’re going mining with Newmont.

Good luck all.

In takeover terms the Hav / Telfer asset is relatively insignificant. Neither NCM or NMT want or need to argue about these assets future. What they need is a full portfolio asset report that gets the deal concluded.

They only question I have is whether SD publishes a GGP updated valuation. Neither NCM or NMT are going to want that before the shareholder vote.

I suspect SD will be keeping is head down unless there is any other commercial reason to publish an update.

For what it’s worth, I reckon Newmont are going to use Hav / Telfer as an early post takeover good news story. My bet is on a massive resource upgrade, approved decision to mine and a takeover of GGP’s stake at sensible market value. Anything less and GGP simply won’t sell.

At the risk of tempting fate I might point out that the SP has been in the 7p to 9p range since August 24th 2022 having dropped to 6.7p on a couple of occasions.

It feels like it’s trading sideways to me.

I appreciate like everyone else invested i would much prefer the 9p end of the range but to keep suggesting the SP is falling is not entirely accurate in my view.

Probably hit 3 year low of 6.5p tomorrow now I have said that…..

There are too many people with their own agenda’s on here pedalling opinion as facts.

From what I can see the reality of being a small pawn in a huge M&A and the unquantified spector of raising money is what is driving shareholder sentiment and the declining SP today. At the start of the year the SP was 8.5p as it was on 6th Feb and again most recently on 12th May. At the start of the year we were all sat there patiently awaiting and resource update and the decision to go mining. Either announcement galvanises our position as a miner not an explorer and puts SD’s multi asset multi billion dollar Tier 1 mining company ambition on track.

Then the merger announcement. Both parties non committal about the future of Telfer and therefore unwilling to commit to Havieron and whilst the merger gets done this will almost certainly remain the case. Then the leak of potential funding inexplicably linked to ASX listing without a clear explanation bring the spector of dilution.

But the reality on the ground as I see it is 100% commitment by Newcrest to the ongoing decline works, funding for Telfer to remain operational until 2025 and a very high probability of a significant upgrade to the resource including significant Copper credits.

Right now, SD doesn’t control any of this but with the long term plan to go mining still appearing to be on track I am not sure he will be having too many sleepless nights. As CEO, what he does have to do though is look at every angle and every eventuality and clearly discussing and having actionable plans to raise funds is part of the Boards strategy right now. That seem sensible to me as long as any raise, if it happens, is explained and is linked to our long term company prosperity.

If we could all stop rambling on about unsubstantiated shorter attacks and conspiracy theories that our CEO is a rogue agent it might make this board a better place to visit.

It does feel increasingly likely that us early adopter shareholders are increasingly unlikely to see multibagger returns here.

SD’s focus is not of the share price, he is only interested in building a bigger company and right now we are in a very difficult spot. The chances of a raise at 8.2p seem very unlikely to me.

Depressing…..

I really don’t understand why people think NCM or NMT would walk away or even consider selling Hav or Telfer. It’s completely illogical. Both companies are gold miners. It’s what they do. NCM have spent hundreds of millions proving up and dug over 2km of access road. In which universe does that not result in an operational mine.

Even if you indulge in the sell fantasy, it will go straight to the market so any cheap deal is a complete nonsense as well.

Here’s hoping we get a good gain tomorrow and perhaps even test the 10p range again.

GGP seems to be defying the market again!!!

I do wonder if the average PI is wondering if the opportunity here is as good as we think it is. If the tide turns here and the SP makes a move I can see a strong upwards movement here. Maybe the DTM or resource upgrade will be the turning point.

I would certainly feel more confident we were in control of our own destiny of the company was double its MCAP.

Serious question. Is there any way GGP buying 70% Hav and 100% Telfer doesn’t lead to hideous dilution for LTH. I would appreciate an informed view on what other likely options could be on the table.

Thanks

It’s late. My apologies.

£1,000,000 divided by £0.08 per share equals 12.5m shares. Sorry - couldn’t resist….

There does appear to be a curious disconnect between what GGP and its investors are doing and what NCM are doing.

Gold miners decision must be singular in focus. Profitable mining of gold. With NCM under threat it makes no sense to delay the upgrading of a value enhancing asset. I don’t know why NCM messaging is so underwhelming but it won’t be because they have intentions to sell it. Why would you talk down your own asset if you’re going to sell it?

There are a few missing pieces of the jigsaw here. Time will tell. More patience required.

Agreed Bamps - it’s all in the structure of any deal and the money raise solution. If we could borrow £1Bn and not dilute then our SP would rocket and we could then do a modest raise and pay some of the debt or pay debt on the basis of ongoing cash flow.

Bamps - I think we all love the idea of a 100% owned Telfer and Hav. It’s not the real question though is it. The real question is at what cost. Assuming an equity raise of 3 new for every 1 old you need a new 38p share price to balance the PI books. Whatever the offer - it needs to add value for shareholders.

Hi MF11 - you may be right about inflating the value of the 70% but a low Mcap is a problem from an equity raise perspective to buy that 70%. There is a small chance we get a ‘deal’ on Telfer but if Hav is as good as we are led to believe why would Newcrest or Newmont let it go?

Far too many permutations but I still think at our current SP a buy out of GGP is a risk getting done at sub 20p. All very interesting.

I agree it’s a win win either way based on 8.7p a share but I must admit the way this is now moving it feels more likely us PI’s will have to settle for sub 20p equivalent if GGP/Hav end up being sold. Really need SD to get an updated resource estimate out to shake things up and get our SP up. Our best SP in the last 12 months was under 17p!

Would be a shame to see the journey end given the long term potential here.

Great interview and very helpful insights by CB.

A change it control event won’t automatically trigger a right to buy unless the JV contract states it.

I can’t imagine NCM lawyers agreeing to this type of clause as it affects the ability of any buying company to value NCM and complete the transaction. Bear in mind also that NCM are the $17Bn company negotiations the JV before Hav developed. We were hardly negotiating the deal on equal terms.

So, I can’t see this Newmont buyout triggering any form of buyout clause. As Callum stated, Newmont are buying Newcrest because of their future project value and Hav is part of that.

Most likely that Newmont complete NCM purchase and then offer on GGP or look to sell Telfer and Hav 70%. Exciting times.

Anyone suggesting GGP own all of Hav under any scenario, please explain what this means to us PI’s.

Option 1 - massive dilution to buy 70% and more massive dilution to buy Telfer or fund a new processing plant?

Option 2 - ?

Vamps - I note your point about Newmont and exploration but I presume when you are as big a gold producer as they are that investors don’t care much for exploration. It’s all about ozs produced….

Good luck all.