Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
The lack of regular consistent format gold production figures is a major oversight here. We all understand that GCAT are on a journey and with funding I am confident 2k oz per month plus is achievable. To fail to report and explain the operational issues is a major erosion of confidence.
An explanation is needed.
Once OCIM paid money then ‘conditions precident’ would presumably be step in rights if GCAT failed to produce the gold.
Given the recent nature of the deal what’s changed? Without an explanation from RM it will be presumably be Caracal not wanting to proceed with the deal as they are going to miss targets giving OCIM control of the mine.
Yes, RM is right to step away from the deal but it begs the question who is going to step in without similar conditions precedent.
It’s a mess.
I am a shareholder and i’m taking a medium term view with this one.
You can only conclude all the ramping hype and short term Hail Mary trader brigade hoping for a quick multi bagger are responsible. A lot of them will be taking money out before the Christmas break and may well get back in come January so I expect an uplift back to 1p first week back.
I don’t believe sell prices hit 1p in the last two weeks otherwise I might have bailed out. Fortune will favour the brace here though and a run on gold into the new year above $2k oz could see GCAT and other goldies fly.
Best seasonal wishes to you all.
Morning all,
Like most on here, I can see upside from the current £400m company valuation.
Benchmarking good producers based on their stated reserves is one way to look at it. Last time I looked Newcrest were valued around £200 per ounce. Based on this GGP would need a 2 million ounce reserve. The more ounces the more value we would be.
Gold price would obviously enhance the value. I have high hopes 2023 will be a breakout year for gold.
We are already seeing signs of exploratory drilling slowing down as they are shutting up shop in the wet season. There will be less of a drive to expand the resource after the next update. I fully expect in time that Havieron will exceed 20m ounces but I don’t think we will get close to this as a proven resource for a long while.
The final share price driver is what SD and the board do with the free cash flow from selling the gold. My preference would be a stated plan for a c£100m buy back or dividend per year. This would drive us back towards a £1Bn company. Excess profits could go into company expansion and rapidly progressing exploration on other licences.
Here’s hoping we can get back above 10p early in the new year as some of these major announcements Land.
Good luck all.
Future valuation is a difficult assessment and I don’t think broker notes are not that helpful.
If GGP are considered a miner then i did an assessment a year ago using bigger miners reserves linked to Market Cap. Newcrest came out at $200 per ounce.
The other valuation approach is to look at dividend payouts to Market Cap. If GGP’s model is to return cash to shareholders every year then this could drive up the share price.
Simply dividing applying 30% of 20moz is unlikely to be how the company is valued.
Be interested in others views.
Been watching with interest and decide to buy again this morning at just under the placing price. Looking at the NCM results and their own ongoing issues I think we have been lucky with timing to retain the 30%.
I believe SD will want to confirm funding sooner rather than later and the placing shares and cash generated will manifest tomorrow. With funding terms agreed and our path forward clear I hope we see some momentum back to the 12p-15p range before the confirmation on mining and upgraded resource is issued later in the year.
I would also like to see SD be more active on exploration and associated updates outside of the Hav and Juri JV. The potential of new exploration success seems very low on the priority list and it would be nice to see more on other potential assets and new discoveries.
All the best.
Important speed bump on the journey tonight. It was never going to be good.
If SD has his stuff together the RNS will include bank credit secured against the $60M to cover all costs to development.
If this happens then there is a small chance of a blue finish. Otherwise it’s down down down….
I’ll hold my hand up to a 1M share sale today. I couldn’t resist over extending my position when we were at 64 last week and the RNS having landed has worked to my advantage.
I still retain a healthy number and am now waiting for 100+ before I take any further profit.
Really pleased with the progress at GCAT. Good luck to all.
After considering the position all morning I also have another 1M tucked away now. Been buying aa the price keeps dropping and each time feel like I got a good deal until the SP drops again.
Difficult to believe I am in at 0.7 when the CEO bought three weeks ago at 1.035!
Patience is key as when this goes it has the mote tail to multi bag quickly in my view.
Good luck all.
I think that the last few days Gold Price has not been helpful to underlying sentiment but this stock definitely feels like a coiled spring to me. When news drops then this will move quickly in my view.
Lots of logical points made on Robbies share purchase. He openly stated they have no intention of raising at these low prices and he must be very confident in near term news to push up the SP to position himself in this way.
Patience is key.
I agree that the presentation was very exciting. Clearly Caracal floated as they need access to the market for funding. For new investors there will naturally be a concern over level of dilution and the impact of share price going forward. I hope that further clarify can be given on the specific use of funds and expected returns set out in any investment case.
All in all I remain very positive over the future and hope that the increase in cash flow from ongoing operations and impending resource updates gives Caracal that 2.5p to 3p platform in the coming months.
Been resisting this for over a week and finally gave in this morning and doubled my holding. The SP is 20% down in a month set against a significant rise in the POG.
Any encouraging RNS on good reserve or discovery could see this test new all time highs in my view.
Magpie, we finished on 15.36p yesterday before the UT at 16.9p. So I see today as consolidation rather than down.
Must admit I got quite excited when we settled in the mid 16’s earlier but sadly it did not last.
No idea what tonight’s results will do but POG is back to below $2000 and seems very likely to go up again and test new highs in the coming week so hopeful GGP might make useful advances back towards 20p as well.
Any good news tonight which was not expected could move is back up to 24p very quickly. Here’s hoping.
Hoping for good things here in the next few months. Took my first position last week but was banking on a sustained short term rise in the gold price to lift GCAT up to the next level.
I toyed with the idea of buying in at 1.02p two weeks ago and should have done it then. Still feel an average of 1.13p will be well placed.
Very promising future here.
I appreciate that events around the world are generating a lot of excitement on the markets but in GGPland it feels like FY22 could turn into a slow year to me.
Perhaps time to log off and come back in 12 months.
Very frustrating……
Been out for a long while but had hoped to buy back in at some point. Look to logic. No foreign buyer will get board approval for a while now. No Russian buyer will be able to access cash and given the Russian market response the last thing anyone is focussed on is M&A.
Common sense required and a clear head. Hopefully anyone who needs their money out in the near term has already cashed in.
My thoughts go out to the people of Ukraine.
If the arbitration clause on the contract is properly drafted there will be strict deadlines. We can expect the next RNS to confirm non agreement by the parties and clarification that the matters will now go to arbitration.
That could well be this week based on original 5%RNS. So it is possible that NCM bite the bullet and agree our valuation but not very likely based on what we think we know.
Good post Zoros. It’s also worth noting that NCM’s own share price is dependent on their efficiency as a miner combined with their gold reserves. Whilst they may be able to delay MRE publication for a couple of weeks eroding their own shareholder and investor confidence in the reporting accuracy and credibility is the fastest way for SB to get fired.
He cannot and I am sure will not jeopardise NCMs reputation by misreporting or misleading investors for a 5% share of a gold mine and a cash purchase valued at less than 1% of NCM’s market cap.
Time will tell. GLA