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Been thinking long and hard about this. There is a limited amount of time NCM can withhold MRE2 as it is 100% market sensitive info. I think this may be a short term position by NCM hoping that GGP might agree a lower offer for the 5%. Once arbitrators are mentioned then NCM may well just get on and release the info. Remember, they have a 70% stake here and don’t want to underplay the opportunity forever.
I also think we might see an offer for GGP as a whole shortly. Buy it now price is on the 30p-40p range in my view and that is surely a massive bargain for NCM given their free cash flow position and banking facility of $3.2Bn and the gold price only going one way.
Interesting period of time coming up. Patience all.
Well we will see how the market reacts. The RNS might be what sone LtH wanted to see but anyone trading will use the no news RNS to sell. I agree it’s irrelevant in the long term but this RNS is about trying to address the short term otherwise be wouldn’t have issued it.
Now if he had given a timescale indication that would have had a very positive impact on the SP. Unfortunately the state of negotiations don’t appear to have allowed that.
Let’s see how he goes later. Have a good day all.
Doublehun. The only instruction SD needs is to sit still and keep quiet. GGP are holding all the cards at the moment and it’s only certain PI’s that are impatient. The only thing SD is worried about us an unwanted offer to buy the company. If it comes today at 35-40p a share then our chances of a £1 share price disappear. Any less and it r went get shareholder backing. Time is all this needs.
No reported upgrade but the headline of the report states ‘Major increases driven by organic growth at RC, Hav and Lihir’. Not on the numbers on Hav though.
Logically all this tells us is that GGP and NCM hadn’t reached agreement when this report was drafted for NCM board approval a week or two ago. Nothing else.
It’s possible we won’t get and RNS tomorrow as there ain’t nothing to report. I for one will be listening at 6pm to the proactive interview.
Patience all.
All this shorting rubbish does my head in. The only way to depress the share price is to sell more than the market wants to buy.
That may be being done by somebody but if the market saw the value in GGP then the selling would be absorbed and ultimately the SP would be forced up by the market. That’s why it’s called the stock market.
Progress and patience will (we all hope) stimulate the market and increase demand for the stock. It is simply a matter of time. I’m going to do my best to avoid LSE this weekend as all the loony’s are going to be out.
GLA.
Poor old man.
GGP are the weakest they will be today. The minute a payment for 5% is made we will be funded and revenue inside 2 years will make bank lending or shareholder raise a thing of the past.
I wouldn’t disagree that now is the time for NCM to buy us out but nothing SD is doing suggests that will be on the cheap.
One factor I am trying to work out is how much of NCM 5% payment is effectively going to be paid back to NCM. If you look at it like that it’s more of a loan than a payment as costs to date, further exploration costs and other operational costs continue to be paid on proportions going forward before mining starts.
This is why I think NCM will be fair. It’s in their interests for us to be well funded as it’s them we end up paying!
Roll on next week. £200m to £300m is my guess.
It’s a 3 year performance related award is it not. Linked to as yet undisclosed performance related indicators. Bad job equals low award of shares and a low share price on any the Board do get. Good performance equals high award of shares at a high share price. Everyone wins.
It’s business not sport. Each company sets basic, good and stretch performer targets for its management team. Awards vary.
Am I missing something?
Exec remuneration is always contentious. Stop looking at the individual and start thinking about how you, the shareholder and owner, would recruit and incentivise your CEO and his team.
The mission over the next 4 years. Quadrupled the share price through Hav growth and new exploration. Achieve a 50p SP to reflect the value added to the business. Manage corporate governance goals well.
In return for adding £1.5bn in shareholder value I promise to pay you in bonus shares for your success.
Not sure why anyone with a vested interest in GGP would have a problem offering share options for successful outcomes.
The alternative is your Management team leaves. I for one don’t want to see that.
Let them get on with it and hopefully we all win.
GLA.
Barna - I wouldn’t read anything into SD’s response to bank funding and likely 5% FMV. He has to be measured but having listened carefully he is simply outlining a process involving two negotiating parties. I think he has every expectation that FMV will fully fund the Havieron mine and give us two plus years of cash for other exploration until mining free cash flows land.
I wouldn’t rule out a first payment and further payments on proven resources. He clearly wants to negotiate quickly and move on provided the process is seen as fair to GGP.
Anyone interested in Greatland Good must listen to this Podcast.
Simply the best, most confidence inspiring CEO interview I have heard in a long time.
Nothing short of a complete collapse in gold prices can stop this company succeeding.
Brilliant performance SD.
PR77 - the bank balance post 5% purchase combined with free cash flow from 2023 should remove any II concerns on dilution. I 100% agree with you that this could be a catalyst for achieving something like a sensible SP.
Roll on tonight….
If you accept the lassonde curve theory then the shift to the SP responding after news should provide some comfort to long term investors that we are at the bottom of the curve now. If an update MRE and a valuation of the 5% above £100M done move us up then we may need a new theory….
Roll on tomorrow night.
That tweet Ortex graph is interesting. First shorts turned up Sept 21 at around 24p. 20M short shares doubled to 50M held and must have been burnt badly until early January. Big 20M chunks have also been picked up in May 21 at 20p and Nov 21 at 17p. Now today at 14p.
Certainly anyone shorting in 21 is in the money.
Should we be expecting these to act as break out prices?
I still maintain 1% of the stock being shorted versus 99% long makes it difficult to believe this is shorter manipulation…. More likely they are just better than us at seeing downward price trend!
I have seen a number of posters talk about NCM reputation if they buy us out and it’s rubbish. NCM enter JV when GGP was worth £50m. NCM do good work and buy whole asset for £2Bn. That is the dream! Every junior in the world would want that.
A £2bn 50p per share buyout is there to be done today in my view. If it saves me from this forum every day I would certainly snap their hands off….