Member Info for tidd83

Don’t sweat intraday movements whatsoever. Brent is up, production is increasing, netbacks increasing, revenue increasing etc etc etc. Recipe for repeatable success as is already being proven over the previous months.

Slowly, slowly, catchee monkey. Given the achievements to date and the huge uptick in gas reserves little has been added to the company valuation. Almost September and the commencement of the fully funded larger work program of multi well production and exploration, couple this with a resubmission to the RFP and it should prove to be an interesting period. Meanwhile ESIA is being worked on and other relevant generation permitting to seek the alternative route of selling directly into the SAPP. Sentiment will be quick to return and I’d imagine a strong case of FOMO especially if the tender is dealt with and successful in quick time.

Meanwhile Brent’s cruising toward $77

This should be beneficial for TXP in the longer term imho. I do think it will result in government looking at finally restructuring the tax system for benefit of increased production as 2fatcatz has mentioned. The country will now be geared to expand on crude exports, in order to do this it will have to be of major interest and benefit to all players within T&T to rapidly expand on production. I note the sensitive point around those workers affected, this could also play well for recruitment down the line. After all the aspirations of TXP are to be the largest onshore O&G Company. Article below is also of interest; “Yesterday the company announced it will shut down its refinery and marketing operations and focus on exploration and production.” “All refined products will be imported, while all the company’s oil will be exported. Petrotrin produces approximately 40,000 barrels of oil today. The refinery capacity is 140,000, which means the company has had to import 100,000 barrels per day to reach nameplate production. Because of this, the company is a net user of foreign exchange.” https://newsday.co.tt/2018/08/28/govt-silent-on-petrotrin-refinery-shutdown/

Keeping SHs informed; https://twitter.com/johnwoo64494325/status/1033958348192919552?s=21

For well number 8! Only 3 wells are contributing to current flow rate of the 2018 program, 5 to be recalculated with a further 6 to go totalling 14 for the year. https://twitter.com/touchstoneexp/status/1034114398430801920?s=21

This survey is the first to be acquired in Jamaica and constitutes an early stage of the programme to de-risk this potentially multibillion frontier hydrocarbon play. With the inclusion of our estimated value of a 20% carried in Crown, we have increased our core valuation for United’s shares from 15.7p to 17.1p on a fully diluted basis. This uplift also incorporates the impact of a significantly weaker Sterling/US dollar exchange rate since May which has provided a supplemental boost to our target price. At this pre-farm out discussion stage, we reserve the right to adjust our valuation of United’s interest in P2366 upon the completion of a farm-in agreement.

The UK Oil and Gas Authority (OGA) has awarded United a 95% interest in UKCS Licence P2366 in the Central North Sea which contains blocks 15/18d and 15/19b. These licences contain multiple hydrocarbon targets. However, of primary interest is the Crown oil discovery which could contain recoverable reserves of up to 16.0 mmbbls of oil. The licence term for P2366 commences on 1 October 2018 and the company is now poised to commence discussions with potential farm-in partners in order to expedite the future development of the asset. These blocks, which cover an area of approximately 13.6 km2, contain several interesting oil and gas targets of which the most exciting is the Palaeocene Crown oil discovery on Block15/19b. The Crown discovery was made by well 15/19-9 drilled by ConocoPhillips in 1998 and United’s internal estimates suggest a range of recoverable volumes for Crown of 4-16 mmbbls with a mid-case estimate of approximately 9.0 mmbbls. United’s blocks are located close to the Piper, MaCulloch and Dumbarton/Donan oil fields. We understand that there were a number of competing bids for the acreage. However, United was awarded the blocks on the basis of a work programme focused on seismic reprocessing in order to reduce the uncertainty of the estimated oil volumes and also to optimise the location of a future development well. We estimate that the initial costs for this work will be modest for United and unlikely to exceed £150,000. We believe that Crown would have been considered too small for development upon discovery However, with significant advances in technology since 1998, we believe that Crown could be suitable for a single horizontal well development and a subsea completion tied back to an existing platform, the closest of which is located less than 12km away. With the confirmation of the award of the licence to United, it is possible to ascribe a preliminary valuation to the Crown discovery. Using a conservative oil price assumption of $65/bbl over the life of a 9.0 mmbbls development as described above, we arrive at net valuation of $80.9m for United’s 95% interest. We expect that United will ultimately hold a smaller equity interest which could still be subject to a funding requirement in the event of a partial carry. However, for the purposes of illustrative value we have assumed that United will retain a 20% carried interest which represents 3.7p per share on a fully diluted basis; a very sizable asset to the company. In our previous note dated 24 May 2018, we highlighted the inclusion of an initial indicative valuation for United’s 20% interest in the Walton-Morant licence in Jamaica within our core valuation. We note that the operator Tullow has now delivered fast track 3D seismic data following the 2,250 km2 survey over the licence and the high graded Colibri exploration target (200 mmbbls+) is clearly identified on the dataset. This survey is the first to be acquired in Jamaica an

When do you propose the investment into Burgh was made? If it hasn’t been included in the final results to April then we must assume it’s post dated, given they had cash of £118k it can’t be much unless they’ve facilitated a deal at which point would that even be in an RNS given any likely holding would be nominal? I also note the director sales, reasoning?

Back through $75 this morning. Cha ching.

Great to see further engagement from the team, i wonder if the call will be post some expected news or at the conclusion of further major milestones with FEED. Excellent comms from the company as it progresses as planned. First batch of warrants exercised puts more cash in the coffers for INFA and likely already sold into market.

Draft that means little. Other entities on AIM do the same thing, never means anything comes of it. A spoof perhaps? Regardless looking at the financials I can’t see how this is not already overvalued, more so - I’m still waiting for Brainer to explain the £250k profit??

Where did they make a £250k profit? Are you assuming a reduction in loss is banked at profit? They have still posted a loss for the year. Assets written down, revenue down. It looks to me that book value is currently trading at a premium or, am I missing something?

Likely Kums, no late reported trades as yet so let’s see how today looks. Meanwhile Brent has moved back up strongly since yesterday now testing $75. It will be interesting to see if the 2000bopd initial milestone is RNSd when reached, PB announced those wells should be online shortly.

Pick - given the short timescale to submit id imagine there won’t be a great deal of change to the documents both parties will be entering. If it did surely they’d have raised their points at the recent meeting, we shall see. If the main thing was to omit all the unnecessary requests and constraints in the government forms then I wonder how much actually needs to be ammended from Tlous side, if anything at all? Only weeks away now.

Bob frustrated to a degree like the rest but much of what occurred was down to the gap hazard handling of the RFP. The recent raise was a kick and imho poorly handled there is no disputing that point however the project will and is continuing. Until the RFP is dealt with then the SP will likely tread water even if I believe the company are undervalued. As with any stock, if the fundamentals are strong then what happens in the interim is only noise. AIM is all about sentiment, Tlou on the deliverance of news will return that. I’ve not gone anywhere, I have other holdings which I focus on that have some big catalysts approaching but Tlou is still the same story with the same potentials.

Garth, I agree. Have been leaving this one to tick over - September should be an interesting month and only weeks away. From there Tlou take the submission to the RFP for upto 100MW and the Work program commences on a sizeable development of 6 wells followed by additional coring. Meanwhile the rest of the market is on a summer break but some decent movers of late. I note my little stalker elsewhere has been following me. Comical, crying out for attention whilst banned from here for lying about Tlou and years later he is still at it haha. I think there was a film title that bares relevence here something like - “He’s just not that into you” ?

Very positive, JW has the focus of the company and by backing it to the tune of £180k by on market purchases his focus is well aligned with SHs. John has some excellent credentials, a complimentary step now in the major turnaround of the company and the full formation of a very strong board. This is excellent news.

Just had a listen to the podcast, good to hear Solomon confirm the story and very strong investment case. JTD we have covered the 10mw proposal a number of times and I stand by the point that reserves are what is the key to the valuation of this company. A PPA of any size be it 1-10-100MW shows a direct route to sale of gas via electrictity and realistically will have very little opposition on expansion once the initial route has been opened. With such a huge acreage position and a country that is keen to progress the gas industry and realise their own ability to satisfy a cleaner and cheaper fuel for energy it still remains to be an open ended growth prospect. Not sure what your reasoning is on directing the question at myself and buzz? Interesting..

Is in the process of being redone I believe. Puts that one to bed for you, but yet - as others have stated - more important things being worked on at present.