Member Info for Thronegames

Zac04. Yes our situations are similar. I'm stuck with BP and RDSB too for a while. One question for you though. I have been having a look at SLA and ex d is next Thurs. Dividend still sounds secure; they sound as if they want us to think they have some moral obligation to income investors during these difficult times bla bla bla. As div is the same approx as LGEN, why do you propose to sell SLA? I know the div cover is not that great. Finally, I'm wondering what altruistic rationale LGEN have trotted out for maintaining the dividend? I'm also wondering if next April's high payout will be maintained? - they know they would be forgiven for a cut, given what's going on in the divi market at the moment. The dividend is the deciding factor for me as to whether I hold, increase or sell. What do you think?

Millithedog, in answer to your question, I haven't a clue! I would love if someone would give me the LGEN quote about sustaining the dividend. Oh alright then I'll google it ffs!! But if you look at Dow and Nasdaq, they have historically recovered strongly from corrections....that's based on charts I've looked at. UK stocks have been miserable by comparison over the last year. UK is basically 3rd world economy at the mo. Spent a while this morning looking at Standard Life charts and supports that. I listened to Warren Buffet's assertion that "most people should not buy individual stocks" and I thought about that and went 50% for index funds 8 months ago[ weighted in China and North America. I still - foolishly or otherwise - like LGEN....!! It's dividend consistency that is key for me here and I deffo see myself buying in the next crash. But markets may be poised for a huge leap forward?

The market is unpredictable. My FTSE 100 dividend payers have disappointed in every way over the last 2 years for obvious reasons. I am interested, RT003 in your strategy of buying LGEN, BP and RDSB at lows. I am invested and hold in all three of these for a number of these and anytime I topped up, I have been stung - with the exception of LGEN. I am careful of accumulating though.

When I look at trends in index funds over the last 3 months, 6 months, 1 year and 3 year time horizons, UK equities has been generally the worst performer in each of these time periods and North American equity the best performer in all those time buckets. I have been slowly selling out of UK individual equities and buying some o the obvious bigger names on the Nasdaq; no matter what happens, they always come back and do well.

The exception is LGEN. I have 'topped up' as you English say at 2.17. I have been moving into cash in my pension fund and will continue to accumulate LGEN for one simple reason. I can't remember the exact words used earlier this year by Director of LGEN but it was to the effect that many people rely on this dividend income stream in old age. That statement stuck out and they have effectively committed themselves to staying with the dividend as the 'Robin Hood' of the FTSE 100! The final dividend paid in June next year is huge, compared to this interim payable in Sept. So while BP and Shell have failed here, many still rely on LGEN and IMB for income. LGEN obviously the better choice by far!

It's a dangerous market though and I have learned to transition slowly to cash with view to buying more LGEN on any serious downswing. That's my strategy; any opinions?

A couple of you here seem confident this is going to fall back to 225p. On what do you base your confidence? All I can see is a steady upward trend, even after the ex div impact this morning. Are you expecting the FTSE to fall back to 6000 again, sinking all boats? Of course that's very possible!

If it turns out like I think it will, this will be my second multibagger in a year! I'm in at average 3.72p. Still sitting on substantial (for me) EUA ; used some profits there to buy her a few weeks ago.

...strange intraday trading pattern for a AIM share....or any other for that matter....very near to a straight line up to 3 p.m.

... increase is just fine. If it keeps going like this, I'll sell on Christmas Eve and buy a proper train set.

Hard to figure out if the uptick in the last few days is people buying in for dividend or is it a genuine realisation post results that this is a solid company? AllAtSea, what other opportunities you looking at after selling? Just curious. LGEN is now biggest holding in my portfolio and I can see myself adding more on any weakness. Can't see where else I'd get 8% plus some capital growth.

I would like to thank you, owlo, TDT and others for great links which it will take me time to explore. Westie, thank you for the implicit welcome aboard and yes, it does seem like a very informed, civil community here. I should point out that I already bought in at 3.5 and at 4.0 over the last few weeks. I should also point out that I am not a 'community' kinda guy; I'm a lone shark (not loan!) and I prefer to fish alone mostly. But I do take the advice and piggy-back on the expertise of other fishermen, before disappearing to catch a whopper!

Owlo, with regard to the share price in 2017 vs. now, that is not data that should form the basis of an investment decision. With the greatest respect, YES the company is worth a lot more than it was in 2017, with the Vermelho asset. But it is when you use the word 'deluded' that really got me thinking - no those buyers at 4p in 2017 were not deluded, they just had a different perception of future value of HZM assets.

Perception of future value is key. That's what drives the market for a share. I has nothing to do with fundamental value of assets. On EUA board, rowka did an excellent analysis of market value of Palladium assets in the ground, discounted it using a standard 75% (I think) for value of assets in the ground and arrived at a 10x + market cap projection based on current SP. I suppose I am looking for a similar analysis here. I dd my own calculation and came up with a lower multiple. I suppose I am really looking for a similar analysis here.

Importantly, the company seems to be financed for the next year?? New finance pending? So I see 10p mentioned as a possible SP? I've been in exploration oilies that went bust, so I'm cautious. After EUA, this is my second 'dipping of toes' in AIM stocks. Again thank you to all for your pointers, links and your welcome.

If you look at other AIM shares this can happen actually. If you look at the charts, some can rise by x5 in a day. Unfortunately I sold out 65% of my holding at 350% profit here and bought AMZN and MSFT and AAPL. So I now hold in value about £7k at the moment and I'm leaving it now to the end. I won't sell them for anything under 80p. Even then I would be reluctant. I suspect there are many like me and that the shares held now are in very sticky hands. I'd be surprised if anyone would sell their holding at this stage and there is only one way for the price to go to get them to sell.

Again, limited research from me, but this sounds good. Owlo I look forward to any new data you can give me.

Can't have such a rise based on a chat board speculation? Surely not?

Can anyone tell me in a few words wth happened?

If you have an informed opinion backed by data and analysis, then it should be shared. If your intellectual assets consist of innuendo and insult, then move to another board. The comments of SlickMongoose have been very valuable to me as an amateur investor. Is there anything of use here that you would like to share, Finlay?

Again SlickMongoose, I have thought about what u said and it makes a lot of sense. The problem in my thinking is that as investors exit bonds, the yield rises. But there tends to be a global exit from bonds when global equities rise, therefore for LGEN, the SP rise is magnified when FTSE rises. Am I wrong ?

SlickMongoose, thanks for the excellent information and analysis and it has provided me with much food for thought. You obviously either work in the industry or have researched it really well. I have obviously done neither of these. I'm left wondering though; firstly why the US 10 year bond in particular - or are you using that as a benchmark.? So when the treasury yield is up, doesn't that mean the price of the bond is down; i.e. investors are net sellers of the bond and net buyers of equities. If that were the case then why did the L&G share price tumble in the March crash? Just trying to make sense of this and not asking for a Macroeconomics lesson! Any correction of my assumptions would be welcome.

SlickMongoose, what site do you use to make the comparison between LGEN share price and US 10 yr treasury? I have just increased my holding today; boughtt @ 2.17 so my average is now 2.00. It's the one share in the whole of the FTSE 100 that has rewarded me over the last few years. And the FTSE 100 has been miserable for me as I am buying using euro and the GBP has been a bloodbath for the last year or so. They have now committed themselves to a moral or 'robin hood' stance on the dividend; it was the dividend that drew me here 3 years ago. I'm now up to my neck in LGEN and it's my largest holding behind MSFT and AMZN.
SlickMongoose I do use a tool on CNBC site for comparing stock trends but I'm a bit green and can't see why the 10 yr US treasury note would influence LGEN price. Would appreciate any enlightenment.

I've 'traded' BP since 2015 and always wanted to hold long term for dividend. The landscape has changed. When I look at the 10 year graph for this share vs. for example MSFT or AAPL or AMZN. the comparison is miserable. I am sure, looking at the graph, there is upside for BP if buying now, but I will not continue to hold. I had it in mind that the share price would continue its upward trend or at least hold around 5.50 and pay a decent dividend. I think there will be a short swing up after tomorrow's results due to removal of uncertainty, but I will be transitioning out of this share quite soon. Can see oil stagnating at 40 to 50 to the end of the year. FTSE in general and GBP FX also dismal.

Messages from the three of you have been very informative. I'm a rare enough poster and did let off some steam a couple of months ago about the pirate games, the futility of 'ramping / deramping' etc on a message board like this.

I do actually read the board each day post suspension. Mac your prediction of the share price being held (manipulated) in a range of 18 to 20p has been validated thus far. Do you see it breaking above 20p without a final offer, given the recent surge in Palladium price? I remember reading reports last Jan about the trend in the Pd price and analysts had predicted it would be $3k by the end of 2020. Obviously, anyone valuing the assets of EUA would have to consider the projected average or median price of Palladium over the lifetime of the mine. Just an important variable in the equation when valuing the assets, Rowka. I believe your last valuation was based on a $2k value per unit of Pd. a few weeks ago. Today it's $2.3k. Would you reconsider on that basis? I remember waking up one morning and seeing the SP cpme out of suspension and shoot to 12p and 17p in two days. What beats me is this: if the world and its mother knows that the true value of the share in at least 73p (as per the ACF report) then why is it not at that level already? Surely it is not possible for MMs to hold the price back at this level given that it is a coiled spring at full tension?

You know the ultimate irony would be if someone accused me of 'ramping'. Lol.

Thought you might be interested in comments here on PGM's in relation to shares in Tharisa. Not interested in the share, just comments on trend in PGM prices:

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-crash-reckon-dividend-060825050.html