.16 Apr 2013 13:13
Amusingly, Goldman was stopped out on yet another trade overnight, this time its Commodity Carry Basket which hit the firm's -6% stop loss signal, and yet even with gold crossing Goldman's target, the firm has so far refused to close out its position:
Although gold has now traded below the $1,450/toz target embedded in our short recommendation, we are maintaining our short as we argued last week that prices could decline more than we initially thought as positioning is stretched and the momentum is to the downside. The most recent ETF holdings showed acceleration in the liquidation of length, which points to a broad-based sell-off extending beyond the futures markets with potentially more room to go. As a result, we are now lowering the stop to $1,400/toz (which locks in a potential gain of 12%) while we wait for evidence of a bottom, though we are not changing our price forecasts now.
Looks like Goldman has much more gold to buy from its muppets, who continue being routed on the firm's various other trading recos with realized losses.
Below are some other fresh overnight view on gold:
Credit Suisse:
The price is now not far from the level CS’s technical analysts identify as the next key area of support: $1,310
Next key level is $1,156, then $1,122; Beyond that, $1,000
HSBC:
Factors affecting the metal: April 10th FOMC minutes showed some members favor an early end to QE, a shift out of commodities into equities and bonds, ongoing gold ETF liquidation and reduction in net longs on the Comex
Price break of $1,525/oz followed by $1,500/oz at the end of last week were important technical support and psychological levels
Of the top 20, 17 of the biggest drops occurred during the 1970s and 1980s; this daily drop is the biggest for 20 years with the next biggest occurring in Oct. 2008 at the height of the financial crisis
Expects “slow grind” higher
Liberum:
Gold is the key sentiment setter among commodities; price moves appear to be the result of a concerted short sale by funds trading futures
Seems to have been a series of drivers behind collapse; key has been the potential for an end to QE in U.S.
Will be a while before there can be a strong rally; would require a big policy mistake from a major central bank to reignite anti-dollar sentiment
Coutts:
Although risks still skewed to downside, an attractive entry opportunity is unfolding, especially if gold consolidates around next technical support level near $1,250/oz
Recent selloff is an exaggeration; sales of ETFs have unwound almost all of the eurozone crisis buying seen in 2012
Numis:
Longer term fundamentals remain unchanged
Gold likely to bounce in 2H and move slowly upward as inevitable further monetary easing comes to play
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-16/overnight-sentiment-gold-rout-halted-now?
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