Member Info for TheTrotsky

On balance, this morning's RNS is now looking totally inept. Is CASP a boat hire company masquerading as an oil explorer? It's now 45 days since we've had a deep well update. Methinks that Clive has made a big misstep this morning and needs to issue a deep well update (good or bad) PDQ.

Kheldar/Smarty, The original RNS said that the charter rate was expected to be in EXCESS of $150,000 per day and in today's RNS they say that the work is expected to take AT LEAST two months. So there is some leeway between the charter rate and the the company's own expectations on how long the scheduled drill is likely to take to get to the figure of c$15m.

Cheap, Perhaps the "loons" are the ones who buy digitals (it's Tulipmania and Soth Sea Bubble writ large). The trick is to realise that digitals are a house of cards and being sure to "stage exit left" before it all collapses.

Realistically there's no way that MNG is currently worth c380p i.e. double what it was worth a month ago (even with the best will in the world) but there's absolutely no basis to the 100% rise in your digitals apart from new money chasing old money (when the new money stops the "wheels" will more than likely fall off). Many people have already been burnt by the rise and fall of BTC et al over the last 12-18 months (albeit that the price has stabilised for the last couple months). I wish, with the benefit of hindsight, I'd bought some BTC back when it was sub-$100 in pre-2015 but I'm not going to dabble at $18k per coin (the likelihood of 10x rise from here is, IMHO, a lot less likely than a 10x fall; it's not worth the sleepless nights). All I'd say is don't let greed outweigh logic (don't lose sight of your original target simply because there has been a rapid rise); it's always better to leave something for the next person rather than overstay your welcome and having seller's regret. GLA

Talk about talking to yourself ;-)

Strategywise, I think SOS is heading in the right direction but its going to take 12-18 months to start paying dividends. They are clearly set on expansion and, in the short-term, that's likely to result in increased costs (customer acquisition). Top line should continue to improve but EBITDA may flatline. It will be interesting to see where, how, and with who, they are going to start their overseas expansion (I wouldn't be surprised to see them rolling out a Next or Sainsbury's like tie up before trying to roll-out an overseas website). Interesting times.

Paul2566, You are correct to understand that when you Bed & ISA any capital loss crystallised in your dealing accounts can be offset against any gains arising in your dealing account in the same tax year.

The 30-day rule does NOT apply to Bed & ISA but please note that:

1) Any current year CGT losses have to be utilised against any current year CGT gains BEFORE your annual CGT allowance i.e. you can't opt to utilise your annual CGT allowance instead of current year CGT losses (so, ideally, you'd only want to crystallise a CGT loss in 2022-23 if you've already fully utilised your annual 2022-23 CGT allowance);
2) Any unutilised current year CGT losses carried forward to later years can be used at your discretion i.e. you can opt to use your annual CGT allowance in preference to brought forward CGT losses;
3) The annual CGT allowance for 2022-23 is £12,300; and
3) The annual CGT allowance for 2023-24 was reduced to £6,000 in the last Budget and is due to be reduced to £3,000 from 2024-25 onwards

Hope that helps.

What do you make of the reversal and reinstatement of yesterday's 1.35m trade this morning? As far as I can tell, nothing's changed. So why?

I never said I liked the herd. Apart from always trying to keep a keen eye out for any approaching precipices, the usual fundamentalist caveats still apply i.e. "should I sell or should I hold", top slicing, "a profit is a profit", "never serves to be too greedy", "leave something for the next person" ;-)

What do you make of it T.Rat? That's a sizeable trade. Can't recollect many recent transactions for that number of shares all in one go. A purchaser I would hazard, given today's rise. If so, does it mean the sell off is perhaps, at last, at an end?

IMHO chartism cuts both ways. I take your point about their fixation with "gaps" having to be filled (it can be self-fulfilling, in as much that they stay out of the market until said the "gaps" are filled at which point, all other indicators being equal, they will pile in). On the other hand, their fixation with candlesticks and bands is just a reflection of how fundamentalists trade i.e. sharp movements up/down tend to give fundamentalists the jitters ("should I sell or should I hold", top slicing, "a profit is a profit", "never serves to be too greedy", "leave something for the next person" etc. etc). Ignore chartists at your peril; because they influence the market just as much as the next investor.

Personally, over many years, I've tried, instead, to become a keen observer of the investor "herd" (watching and waiting for them to "bolt" before deciding whether to buy/sell) and trying, where I can, to disassociate myself from any given share (the worst mistake you can make is to try to buck the market, regardless of whether you think they are right or wrong; my share portfolio is littered with my "lost campaigns"). Fundamentals only ever get you so far; if the market doesn't like you, you are on a hiding to nothing. Based on fundamentals I've always avoided the FAANG's and their kindred because I've never believed in Goldilocks and, despite their share price falls in the last 12 months, on the whole I'm worse off for doing so; bottom line, more often than not, it pays to follow the "herd" (the money) whether they be right or wrong.

MrBasse, Come the revolution citizen! Power to the people ;-)

CC, I think the TheThinker is right; there's more often than not a pull back after a sharp rise (particularly if there is a gap up at open). From a long term holder's perspective this is usually just a temporary blip (the expectation being that after the initial pull back the share price will recover based on fundamentals, such as dividends). We've already seen this over the last few weeks when the share price surged towards 8.5p; the share price has since started to recovere but still hasn't, as yet, returned to the earlier peak. From a trader's perspective this is an opportunity to make a "turn". It's the psychology of the herd and, in reality, the basis of charting; we are creatures of habit, it's where FOMO meets FOJI and FOMO reverses (the fear of losing the profits you've just gained). It has absolutely nothing to do with fundamentals.

False dawn I'm afraid. I decided to speak to SpreadEx this morning. There are various reasons why they might stop people from opening new buys/sells; in this instance it appears that they are close to their internally determined limit (the amount of exposure they are willing to accept on any one share). They have now "re-opened" CASP (because they are not quite at their limit) but that might change again. The position with other spread betting firms may be different i.e. the change I saw yesterday may only have been unique to SpreadEx.

PS. Despite all that, very quiet today. Only one trade reported thus far.

ECHO? What does that mean?

I hope you are right but I would have thought the first transaction would have been executed above the mid-closing price if it was a buy.

I would suspect that these are a matched buy and sell

I would suspect that MNG's investment is HYVE is as agent (invetsment manger) rather than principial.

Also, a c20% increase in HYVE's market value would equate to c£50m and, if MNG was holding HYVE as principal, that would only equate to a c£1m increase in the market value of MNG's 2.1% holding; that would hardly justify a c£377m increase in the market value of MNG ;-)

If it was simply the last trading day of the month then surely it would apply to all shares; my other current spread bet isn't restricted. I'm not saying that there will definitely be an RNS today/tomorrow but it's strange that I suddenly can't add. I don't know whether it's the same for all spread bet companies; I'm with SpreadEx.

Could we have news this pm? It's not unheard of for CASP to release RNS in the afternoon.

I'm pretty sure I could buy/sell this morning, so I'm wondering what's changed. Could the markets know that an RNS is about to be released, albeit that they might not know the content of the RNS, either later today or tomorrow morning?

I've just noticed that I'm now unable to open any new CASP buys (or sells) on my spread betting account; I can only close my existing spread bets. It's usually indicative that the spread betting firm can't find any hedging counterparties to share their risk. It would therefore appear that we are now on a knife edge and (one would suspect) that the market is expecting news imminently.

It would appear that the MMs are up to their usual games today. I wouldn't be surprised to see some large sells coming thru later in the day, to explain this morning's drop.

When trades were recorded in hand written ledgers, one could understood delayed reporting but in this electronic age there seems to be no excuse other than to take advantage of unwitting PIs and line the pockets of MMs!