Member Info for TheTrotsky

I'll bite. Where do you get £6 from?

Both Drax and Foresight bid below NAV for HEIT. Thanks but no thanks.

You work hard all day trying to climb the mountain and the very next day they chop your legs off ;-)

ManU, I know that you were replying to robleo's post. What I was pointing out is that he might have been comparing ex-div with ex-div when he made his statement, whereas you are comparing cum-div with ex-div (apples and pears). On an ex-div to ex-div comparison his statement was factually correct. I'm just saying that you should allow a little latitude for posts occasionally being information lite and not just always read them at face value.

PS. You may be correct in assuming that Robelo erred (that he too was comparing cum-div with ex-div) but on a proper comparison of ex-div with ex-div he might just have lucked out.

In fairness ManU, you're not quite comparing like with with like. You're comparing the cum-div price on 19 March with yesterday's ex-div price. Adjusting for the 13.5p dividend, yesterday's closing ex-div price was higher than the equivalent ex-div adjusted price on 19 March.

They've just increased their price target from 537p to 730p! That's some leap.

You do have to wonder sometimes whether brokers just randomly pick numbers out of a hat.

I know that PHNX's prospects may have improved but a 36% uplift in Citigroup's price target! That's crazy. I rather suspect that their original price target was total bunkum.

Regardless of how illiquid this share may be, it doesn't help when the MMs cut the bid-offer prices from the get-go. Ho-hum!

Suddenly gone very quiet today.

I see that there is no further news on Ilovesushi's much ramped additional Artemis and directors buys. Maybe tomorrow, eh!

One should point that, although Atemis was undoubtedly a buyer last week, we don't know from the information in the RNS whether Artemis was already an existing holder (albeit with a holding below 3%) and we shouldn't overlook the fact that Blackrock reduced its holding (below 5%).

Also, although TysonX was keen to point out that SimplyWallStreet had a DCF fair valuation of £1.34 yesterday, he's failed to ask himself what the valuation was before the interims (I can't see if that historic information is available). One would suspect that the valuation might have been markedly higher before the profit warning. Interestingly this evening SimplyWallStreet is showing the valuation as being £1.24; I don't know whether that's because TysonX made a typo in his original post or whether the analyst forecasts used by SimplyWallStreet have since been revised downwards . I suspect the latter.

In any event, as we should all know by now (much to our chagrin), UK-listed shares rarely trade at their "true" market value (UK-listed shares generally trade at a marked discount and have done since Brexit, if not before) and it generally takes a bid to narrow the spread between the share price and fair valuation. The c32% discount between tonight's closing price (85.20p) and SimplyWallStreet's latest DCF fair valuation (£1.24) isn't particularly out of kilter with the rest of the UK market (if anything it's a bit narrower; e.g. just today Renold announced potential bids at a premium of c40-45% to its closing price on Monday. I'd be extremely surprised if VIC wasn't trading at a similarly large discount to its DCF fair valuation before the profit warning (the figures have just been shunted downwards since).

As I've said before, I think a recovery to c90p might be achievable in the short term but I genuinely believe that a recovery above £1 will need to see evidence that the new MFI initiative is bearing fruit and that's probably going to take at least 6-12 months.

GLA

I could see the sale of all, or part, of Onyx being a potential issue. SEIT might struggle to realise the value from a potential sale that it might have expected.

As matters currently stand, the imposition of tariffs in the US on Chinese imports have probably significantly increased the cost of new/replacement solar installations with potentially less scope to recoup the additional costs through higher income generation (Trump's "drill baby, drill" policy is likley to drive down unit energy prices in the US for the foreseeable future). You'd therefore expect a consequential knock-on effect on the NAV of Onyx.

Just a thought.

I certainly wouldn't complain but on what basis do you suggest £7+?

According to an article on Sky News two years ago (see link below), it was rumoured that Macquarie was interested in the asset management business and that they'd look to divest the insurance business if thye made a successful bid; PHNX was considered the most likely suitor for the inurance business. Can't find any more recent news/rumours.

https://news.sky.com/story/australian-financial-titan-macquarie-plots-takeover-of-5bn-mandg-12823131

The NIC changes kicked in at the start of H2 , are expected to increase H2 costs by c£2m and are over and above earlier inflationary changes. QED c£4m per annum going forward. In the longer terms some of those additional costs will be offset by general price increases, its the way of the world, but some of those additional costs will inevitably stick and will have to be offet by increases in future sales volumes.

Bit of a mixed bag. The core business showed some improvement (which appears to have continued into H2) but its clearly facing some headwinds e.g. the NIC changes might be expected to increase annual costs by c£4m (offsetting most of the cost efficiencies that TPT is trying to implement). ProTiler continues to trade strongly. The CMA investigation into the acquisition of CTD may not have identified any major concerns but the integration of the acquired business has been stalled for six months whilst the investigation was ongoing (you've got to question the merits of the investigation and the time it took to complete) and some housebuilder and A&D customers have been lost that TPT would, no doubt, have liked to have retained. TPT has also incurred some additional one off costs because of the delay. It'll probably take TPT six months to steady the ship and probably at least 12 months for CTD to start gaining new traction.

One appreciates that the CMA has a job to do but the remnants of CTD were on the verge of collapse and the delay could have proven terminal; the interim manager installed whilst CTD conducted their investigation had no concern in growing/improving the business and has hampered the turnaround process. The CMA's remit is now too wide (it now has to consider local/regional competition issues, not just national) and it's a hamfisted process.

"... How expansion is affected by tariffs, God only knows ..."

The cost of buying new batteries (from China) in the US will be c80% higher for starters.

Both Maven Capital Partners and Schroders have been buying in recently whilst Octopus has been divesting. Over on ADVFN, TiltonBoy suggested today that the share price is recoveing from an oversold position. I'm not sure there was anything new in the interview; they've never lacked enthusiasm despite having been thrown several curve balls since the start of COVID. In the absence of any other news take your pick.

I think H1 FY26 is an important stepping stone on the share price recovery route. They need to show that the transition from discounting to full price is now, finally, complete, with both increased sales and, hopefully, profitability (or at least breakeven). I suspect that current market conditions are unlikely to make this task any easier. This seems to have become a perennial problem since the start of COVID; just when you think you've managed to deal with one problem, up crops another e.g just when you thought you were getting to grips with the cost of living crisis up pops the Orange One to throw yet another spanner in the works. The imposition of US tariffs has probably not helped global expansion plans but, you never know, the recently announced EU trade deal may have opened a few new doors.

From today's share news, courtesy of Reuters:

"British finance group Legal & General said on Monday it had agreed to acquire a 75% stake in real estate investor Proprium, as the company sharpens its focus on private markets under chief executive Antonio Simoes.

Proprium has $3.5 billion of assets under management in global real estate private equity. The deal is expected to close by the fourth quarter of this year, L&G said in a statement. It did not disclose the purchase price."

* $3.5 billion of AUM would NOT equate to a purchase price of c$2.6 billion before people start jumping the gun. I believe that a purchase price of c4%-8% of the AUM would be normal practise. So, I'd hazard that LGEN has spent c$100-$200m for a 75% interest but stand to be corrected.

Ssh! Don't jinx it ;-)

I suspect that the batteries are already in situ; the projects are completed awaiting energisation. The main impact will probably be on future US replacement/expansion. On the flipside, it could reduce the rate of saturation in the market which, in turn, could mean higher income due to less competition from other battery storage providers.

It was an odd Fact Sheet. Downbeat may not be the right terminology. I think that, like a lot of us, the current tariff situation has left GSF a bit confused with more questions than answers. It will take time to assimilate all of the new legisilation and determine its longer term impact. GSF may have found itself well placed, more by luck than design, at its existing sites - batteries already installed, tax credits in its back pocket and potentially facing less future competition. However, the tariffs may have put the kaibosh on any future expansion plans in the US plus the current forex rate isn't helpful. GSF may need to wait and see how the dust settles before drawing any final conclusions.

Was that a demand or a plead? MFI is entering a very competitive homewares market and it will be competing with much larger businesses, such as B&Q and Dunelm, with much greater purchasing power. Other investors ain't that daft; they know that MFI will be loss making and a drag on the group's results for a good couple of years even if it does eventually succeed.

The only thing that's going to drive this share price north of £1 in the short/medium term are PIs with more money than sense. If you buy now, you need to be patient and have confidence in the management's ability to deliver. If you are thinking of buying in the hope that the share price will be back to £1 in no time, and a quick profit, I'd seriously think again. They've issued a (significant) profit warning (adjusted PBT for FY25 is going to be c£3m-£4m less than the market might otherwise have expected based on previous performance) and they are going to be paring away any rising profits in the their existing business to cover losses in this new venture for probably at least 12-24 months; it's quite possible that the group's adjusted PBT could be remain flat for the next 12-24 months and you don't get a go-go investment rating for delivering flat profits.

90p might be achievable in the short/medium term (on the premise that markets are always wont to overreact to bad news) but I seriously think that £1 is out of reach based on these H1 results and the forward looking statements.

These were placing shares taken up by Arlington Group Asset Management Limited, in which Cannon Brookes happens to have a 50% interest (see the RNS issue on 4 December) not 100% (the other 50% is owned by Simon Charles Catt who did a bunk to Italy in June 2023). No director has bought in the market since the placing. Interestingly the Duke shares owned by Arlington Group are held under current asset investments in their latest accounts to 31 December 2024 (likewise 2023) which would normally indicate that the shares aren't being held as a long-term investment.