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I got arrested today. They charged me with casting doubt on the ability of Paul and his sidekicks to develop a world beating mine to magnet facility, publicising Paul’s past failures, pointing out some issues with the cv’s of Paul and others on the Pensana website, speculating why two non execs legged it on the same day, doubting that the company would get a nickel from the ATF, questioning the environmental wisdom of digging up East Yorkshire, casting aspersions about the non independent drilling assessment of Longonjo, well it was such a long list of charges I have forgotten the rest. Now they are looking for collaborators, which I take to mean people who do not have a shrine for Paul, with photos and little candles, in a corner of their sitting room. I think if I am lucky I’ll just get two more years of posting on the Lse chat. Doa of course will have already left.

China, nice to see you are so concerned that Dao will lose his bet. Can you give me a single example of when I haven't told the truth, oh and what happened to the Bank of NY takeover you told us was imminent? And btw if you are 500% up on your investment why are you fretting about the Chicom FUD's you obsess about??

Dao, sounds reasonable to me!

I’ll take the bet!! Nothing is going to happen July 21st to 28th. Contrary to Paul, Vicky and Tony’s assurances there will be no financing this month. Oh and has the company confirmed it got a load of cash from the ATF? What an absolute shambles.

So Vicky, anxious not to disturb the directors, who are putting the finishing touches to the bond financing and the 45p placement, takes an executive decision. Money is tight because a lot of the proceeds of the placements got wasted on digging up East Yorkshire, so Vicky goes and buys a shovel from Aldi. She sends Baroness Hangover out to Luanda to dig a hole and cut a ribbon with the mayor and witch doctor of Longonjo and what happens, the damn shovel breaks. Digging holes is obviously not the board’s forte. Then news gets out and the share price tanks. What a day! Personally I blame the Chicoms and Lynas, clearly they were behind this!

DP there will be no exemptions. When the markets dry up nothing happens. Certainly there is a flight to quality because markets become extremely risk averse. Project finance goes straight in the bin, doesn’t matter if it’s tin, copper, RE. Nobody knows what is going to happen now. Not a single economic forecaster predicted that inflation would exceed 2%. What is happening is so off the grid it has taken everybody by surprise, the Fed, BOE, ECB. You, me, everybody. The best investment strategy? Cash. Do nothing. Sell if it’s not too late or you can afford to ride this out. But for the next six months at least everything is going to get trashed.

Joe, maybe that would be like topping up on ANIC at 20p??!! But I would buy THG at 70p.

The City is as dead as I’ve ever seen it. Equity and debt markets drying up fast, activity is non existent. First lay-offs in a while, a very bad sign, everyone hunkering down for what is going to be a very bumpy ride the next six months. I know the halfwits will come out of the cracks and call me a fud or a shorter but I am just telling you as it is, it will need a miracle to pull off a bond financing to Vicky’s timetable. Drift of the SP into the 50’s totally predictable, there is nothing to support the sp over the next few weeks so I think we will definitely be low 50’s and quite possibly back to the 40’s. The other problem is it is like putting a house on the market at an inflated price. It sticks around to long and then fetches even less than it would have had it been priced sensibly in the first place. There’s been too much mine to magnet hype, in fact too much hot air period. This coupled with a whacky approach to financing could put the Company into the worst possible situation, everywhere they go get’s greeted with a yawn, market sick of seeing the same term sheet with the same outlandish numbers, every time with a different sponsor or sticker. The Atherley fiasco all over again, same approach, same script, same outcome. None of which is actually my fault!!

I agree with your sentiments, I don’t think he/she/they are quite the full shilling, best just ignored.

Tony, there is no point whatsoever running some DCF analysis when you don’t have finance, you don’t have an income stream, you don’t have a credible BFS and in any event the market is throwing the whole lot out of the window and sticking more or less to a 95% discount to the FEED NPV. You can sit there and punch any numbers you like into your 12c or whatever and you will have achieved absolutely nothing. Your comment about full value before production is ignorant. There are risks associated with all these projects, risks re the geology, finance risks, political risks, market risks, execution risks, taxation risks and typically these risks fall away or abate as you get towards production. As the risks fall away the value increases because value is a function of risk. Some risks will remain after production so in that sense theoretical full value may never be realised. The assessment of risk will be reflected in the discount factor you apply to the cash flows, that is if you’re just trying to establish an NPV. Now tell me about your mathematical evaluation of Pensana.

Tony, I don’t think I need a calculator. FEED has a NPV of $3.5 billion. The current market cap of Pre is $210m. So the market is valuing Pre at a 94% discount to FEED. Yes, that’s 94%. So what the market is saying is this company is not going to get finance, whatever Vicky says. The issue then is when do the Angolans lose patience and revoke whatever licences or rights the company has. I imagine if we get into 2023 and nothing has happened this must become a real possibility. I would think a discount of 94, 95% is probably reasonable at this stage. I don’t think Saltend will ever happen because the Company does not have the skill, the technology or the personnel, to me it is a flight of fancy, Paul’s folly, mine to magnet smoke, mirrors, hot air, a total nonsense and a distraction. But there will forever be an ounce of hope that finance for a mine could be procured or that somebody takes the rights off the company’s hands. Hope value? Maybe $100 to $150m, say 30 to 40p/share. So take that as a floor, coincidentally darling Paul’s last venture, Berkeley Energia, has a current hope value of £80m, so smack in this range. So I see a drift into the 50’s perhaps low 50’s by the end of July if no rabbit out of the hat by then. So there’s my back of an envelope, hope value is a bit of a flip of the coin, let’s be optimistic and go for $150m or 40p.

Good post Tom. I can tell you the City is a morgue just now. Zero activity. First redundancies. A very grim six months head.

Thanks Tony, So probably not next week but definitely by 18th July.

Thanks Tony, look forward to announcement of the bond financing next week and details of the accompanying share issue. Guess there will be some conversion options on at least part of the debt, guess we are looking at 50p odd with an issue and a ratchet on the conversion, perhaps starting at 55/60p. You agree with this? Seems odd to me to put Saltend before Longonjo.

Tony you’ve lost the plot. So you really suggest a Dear Victoria letter would clarify PA’s scrambled message about a bond financing to be announced either the week after next or in December, depending on how you interpret what he said?? This is childish stuff. You are scrambling to get away from your bull about the letter from the busy director. The letter that fully explained (joke) why Hohnen and Maclachlan left but did not explain why they left on the same hour of the same day of the same month. I cannot believe you are suggesting someone writes a dear victoria letter to find out what on earth is going on at this company. Is it not a fact that if this all turned out to be a car crash people would look back and agree that all the clues were there, the false promises, the missed deadlines, the incredible claims, the world beating this, the mine to magnet that. Saltend 1. Saltend 2. Great Wall. The Norwegians. The BFS. Then the FEED. The visit by dignitaries to their piece of scrubland. The baroness non exec. The departure of Hohnen and Maclachlan. The miraculous Thorium solution. The Leyshon, Murchison, Berkeley Energia pedigree. The misleading cv’s for leading personnel on the company website. Join all the dots. Why on earth would anyone think of even touching this??

China, you have lots of problems, I know, but your greatest one is your total fixation about FUD's. You do not seem to either understand or accept that a share price can move down without it being shorted by some narco chicom screwball FUD. It could move down because there were simply more sellers than buyers, has that possibility ever occurred to you? Even the slightest mention by any poster of something negative or something that does not fit with your blinkered vision of a utopia where darling Paul sits astride the largest RE processing operation in the west and off you go, fire and brimstone, spouting your usual garbage. You need to calm down and accept that there are two sides to every coin.

Patents are granted following full disclosure of the invention. The details are then published and made available to the public. KFC and Coca Cola recipes are not patentable, that’s why they are only protected by confidentiality. If Pensana had applied for a patent you could check that, it would be marked as patent pending. Or Tony could write to the Board. I suspect that the company has come up with what they believe to be a solution, not a proprietary patentable process. Also what works in Angola is likely to be a little different from what works in Australia. Or elsewhere.

Mumbles you will recall extensive discussion and speculation on this forum about the departure of Hohnen and Maclachlan. Tony participated in that discussion. Then a year later he magically produces a letter purportedly written by a director in 2021 that explains everything?? A very poorly written letter. Then he says he won’t disclose who wrote it because he doesn’t want me disturbing the director who as we speak is putting the finishing touches to the bond financing. You find that plausible??? Really? I figured you as a bit smarter than that.

Colin.

You seriously believe that a director of Pensana wrote this:

They are both hugely experienced business men in their own rights and the reasons for their stepping off the board was nothing more than transitionary. Mark is based in Australia and in addition to Covid restrictions the companies migration to the UK meant we were always going to look for a replacement in the UK who was closer to the Saltend operations which came in the form of Dr Jeremy Beeton who rolled out the UK Olympics. Similarly, Neil Maclachlan, with respect to his age, was always looking to step down at age 78 once another Board member/s was in place and Baroness Lindsay Northover and Sandra Bates fulfilled that position.

It’s pathetic.

China, Tony, sad sad stuff from you two. So the two non execs leave, no announcement from the company, not a dickiebird other than to confirm they have left. But Tony, some nobody shareholder, gets a letter from a director, written in the most appalling English, explaining exactly why they left. Same director’s identity not disclosed because he is so busy applying finishing touches to bond financing. Give me a break, this is beyond childish.