Member Info for Thenorseman

NASA1

Agree. I was thinking the latest fund raise might have been because GBP now realize it will still take some time (longer than they thought initially) from farm in agreed (hopefully any day) until it is finally formally approved by the JV (Namcor and Aloe) and rubber stamped Namibian authorities and only then GBP would get paid back costs etc by the farminee.

My impression of Omar is good and he comes across is very trustworthy.

GLA

N.

….. as opposed to being controlled from Westminster. For the Falklands, Sea Lion represents very significant economic activity and tax revenues, and the project has already met with significant local support.  Value and upcoming news flow. We have a price target of 53p for Rockhopper, and this includes risking Sea Lion Phases 1 & 2 at 30%, and the rest of the resources at 20%. As such, there is large potential upside, despite recent positive share price performance, as Sea Lion approaches and moves through FID. FID, and the technical and financial requirements for this, could come through in 2025, giving the potential for material outperformance.

Sea Lion FID in sight Rockhopper holds a material 35% stake in the Sea Lion field in the Falkland Islands. Alongside JV partner Navitas, the company is advancing the project towards FID, and this has a very real chance of being achieved during 2025. Rockhopper is in the best position it has been in for years, and we believe 2025 could see significant positive performance for the shares.  Sea Lion a project of global scale. Sea Lion is a significant global oil project, containing 908mmbbl of gross discovered 2C resources. The JV is currently progressing an initial Phase 1 & 2 project targeting development of 319mmbbl gross via an FPSO and phased drilling, with a subsequent Phase 3 adding another 213mmbbl. Phases 1 & 2 are expected to drive peak production of 50mbbl/d gross, with Phase 3 increasing this to 120mbbl/d total. Pre first oil CAPEX is US$1.4bn gross, controlled by phasing the drilling and using a leased FPSO, with US$4.0bn total for all Phases 1-3. These numbers all demonstrate the material size of the Sea Lion project.  Navitas the right partner, now progressing towards FID. Sea Lion operator Navitas holds a 65% stake in Sea Lion, and continues to progress the project. Recently, the development plan and phasing have been updated, still keeping pre first oil CAPEX to a minimum. The licences have been extended by the Falkland Islands government, and the environmental impact statement is being progressed. There have also been press reports that the Aoka Mizu FPSO is being upgraded preparatory to use at Sea Lion, and the project debt process is expected to kick off in the coming months. Importantly, Navitas is also due to bring on its Shenandoah development in the Gulf of Mexico in Q2 2025 – this will add 39mbbl/d of initial net production for Navitas (or almost US$1bn of annual revenues using US$70/bbl oil). As such, Shenandoah demonstrates Navitas’ project and funding experience and capabilities, while the progress made on Sea Lion shows its intent to press on with the project, making Navitas an attractive partner for Rockhopper.  Farm out deal underpins Rockhopper CAPEX funding. Rockhopper has a farm out deal with Navitas that covers two thirds of its pre first oil equity CAPEX (that portion not covered by project debt), and this is then repaid out of project cash flows.  Italy arbitration providing significant additional cash. Rockhopper won a EUR190m arbitration award against the Italian government in 2022. The company has since monetised the award such that it received EUR19m cash in June 2024, and could receive another EUR65m in the coming months as long as the original award is not annulled in an upcoming court hearing (the company has also insured this payment at a minimum of EUR31m). This all has the potential to cover Rockhopper’s balance Sea Lion equity CAPEX requirements.  Project approvals a devolved matter for the Falklands government. Approvals for oil and gas are a devolved matter for the Falkland Isla

Makes you wonder why companies want to be listed in London and not anywhere else ?

From FT January 3rd 2025:

«Britons have the lowest appetite among their G7 peers for investing in the stock market, according to a new study that showed personal wealth in the UK was mostly tied up in housing, pensions and cash.

UK savers invested just 8 per cent of their wealth directly into equities and mutual funds compared with 33 per cent in the US and an average of 14 per cent across the remaining five G7 nations, according to an analysis of national accounts by Abrdn.»

JEBR

Please put me down for 68p end of year 2025.

N

….

« Shenandoah phase two, and Shenandoah South

Much more is on the way for Shenandoah. Beacon also announced that it has reached a final investment decision on a second phase of the development, which will call for two additional wells to boost the capacity of the FPS to 140,000 bpd.

The second phase will expand capacity via debottlenecking by early 2026, as well as installation of a subsea booster pump for hydraulic support.

Phase two activities should be conducted between 2025 and 2028 and will attempt to tap into roughly 110 million barrels of oil equivalent of resources.

Beacon and its phase two partners, HEQ Deepwater and Navitas Petroleum, secured an additional US $150 million in financial backing for the development. Total debt commitments for Shenandoah are up to $1.2 billion, Beacon said.

Gutterman said the second phase sanction “reflects the large resource potential we have confirmed during our initial drilling operations and through improved seismic imaging”.

Beacon is also advancing plans for another Shenandoah development called Shenandoah South, located in Walker Ridge in depths ranging from 5800 to 6000 feet. It would tie back to the Shenandoah FPS via a three-mile flowline and dedicated riser connection.

Preliminary plans for Shenandoah South include two wells that could tap into 74 million boe of resources by the second quarter of 2028.

A final investment decision for Shenandoah South could be possible by the second quarter of 2025, according to Beacon, who is partnering with Houston Energy, HEQ Deepwater and Navitas Petroleum on the development.

Commented Gutterman: “The nearby Shenandoah South project would mark the second lower Wilcox subsea tieback that we plan to produce via our expanded Shenandoah production hub. Shenandoah South and our Monument development, which is expected to achieve first oil in the fourth quarter of 2026, represent the implementation of our strategy to commercialize the sizable, discovered resource opportunities within tieback range of the Shenandoah FPS.”»

«Published 20 December 2024, 17:55

US operator Beacon Offshore Energy is having an eventful end to 2024, announcing on Friday that it has sanctioned two developments in the US Gulf of Mexico while also beginning the journey of its Shenandoah floating production system from South Korea to Texas.

The 25,000-tonne Shenandoah FPS sailed away from HD Hyundai Heavy Industries’ shipyard in Ulsan, South Korea on 13 December and is scheduled to arrive at Kiewit Offshore Services’ fabrication yard in Ingleside, Texas in the middle of February.

From there, it will undergo final preparations and inspections before being towed to the Shenandoah field in the US Gulf’s Walker Ridge area.

Mooring pile installation has been completed at the Shenandoah site, and infield pipelay activities should be performed in the first quarter of 2025. A 102-mile (163-kilometre) pipeline associated with the development has been successfully completed.

Rig operations are underway for the completion of the second of four wells in Shenandoah phase one, Beacon said. Rig blowback should be conducted in first quarter, followed by completion operations on the final two producing wells in Shenandoah’s first phase.

The FPS will have nameplate capacity of 120,000 barrels per day of oil. Initial production is still on track for the second quarter of 2025.

In announcing the FPS voyage, Beacon chief executive Scott Gutterman thanked HD Hyundai Heavy Industries for its work on Shenandoah, particularly after an accident in February that claimed the life of one worker and delayed the project’s timeline.

“The successful sail-away represents another major milestone for the Shenandoah project and is the direct result of the relentless, detailed oriented, engineering driven, and collaborative approach of our talented project team, partners, vendors and suppliers,” Gutterman said in a statement».

Contd…

Jocko we are still awaiting the Ombrina Mare courts verdict remember :)

Would be a nice Xmas present for all

N

Blatav1

Everything for you:)

https://www.upstreamonline.com/rigs-and-vessels/engineering-under-way-to-redeploy-fpso-from-uk-north-sea/2-1-1753213

Auson

Try this link for market cap. Not sure how accurate but looks like > £1billion back in 2012 equivalent to around 150p today.

N

https://companiesmarketcap.com/gbp/rockhopper-exploration-plc/marketcap/

A Norwegian energy engineering firm has been awarded a front-end engineering and design contract for the redeployment of a floating production, storage and offloading vessel currently operating in the UK North Sea.

Engineering firm Aragon said it had been awarded the contract by Bluewater Energy Services for the Aoka Mizu FPSO redeployment project.

The Aoka Mizu is currently working on the Lancaster oilfield, and has been earmarked by the Israeli operator Navitas Petroleum for the Sea Lion project in the Falkland Islands.

Sea Lion joint venture partner Rockhopper Exploration said last month that a memorandum of understanding had been signed for the supply of a redeployed FPSO currently in the UK.

Aragon, which is majority owned by Seatrium of Singapore, said the FEED contract “signifies another milestone in our enduring partnership with Bluewater, built on mutual trust and shared success”.

“The refit and refurbishment activities are scheduled to commence in 2025, paving the way for the FPSO to become operational by 2027,” it added.

Navitas is eyeing up a three-phase development at Sea Lion — the Falklands’ first offshore development — starting off with the redeployed FPSO for phases one and two, and increasing to upwards of 120,000 barrels per day once all three phases are completed.

It is understood the redeployed FPSO will have a peak production rate of up to 55,000 bpd of oil.

Oh taxes I remember you from iii days

Good to hear from you

N

Hi Gardie

I have no interest in Energean but posted the article as finance is relevant to Sea Lion in particular as Navitas is also an Israeli company.

Kind regards

N

«A matter of price

But Rigas remains confident that when the right project comes along, Energean will have no problem financing it.

“The right project, well-structured, with the right company always finds funding. It's a matter of price,” he said.

While European banks have largely stepped away from oil and gas financing under energy transition mandates, US and Middle East banks remain willing to lend, while the capital markets are buoyant, he said.

The company’s Israeli focus also means there “is also a big pool of capital in Israel” that includes institutional investors across debt and equity as well as insurance and retail funding.»

https://www.upstreamonline.com/field-development/energean-looks-to-balkans-uk-and-africa-for-new-gas-opportunities/2-1-1747312

Donalb

Tx my mistake.

Regards

N

Soldier

He is NOT convicted!

You are one of those people spreading false information.

Get your facts right.

N

Soldier

I’m not aware Trumph is convicted. Please enlighten me with your knowledge here?

N

I honestly believe as things now stands with higher resources, an available FPSO to design around, pre-FEED confirming concept/cost, EIS approved (more or less), minimum OM payout guaranteed with high chance of up to 60+ million euros we are in a better position than when 20p last time was the resistance. So I expect (hope) we will break through the 20p easily very soon.

N

Complex 80million bls 1424 million bls for whole complex as per page 26 below but lost track of how relevant these numbers are today with latest information from drills. Anyone know?

https://rockhopperexploration.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/NFB-Exploration-Capital-Markets-Day.pdf

I understand the Navitas business model is to develop already proven resources, not to explore for oil or producing oil. With that in mind I think Navitas will continue as operator for the first phase(s) and maybe let someone else operate later.

So maybe Murphy (or Talos, Beacon…?) would farmin for a minority share now with a view of increasing the share later?

N