Member Info for Thenorseman

Hi Laura2022

They have managed to keep the lid on who the possible farmin partner is very well, so I have nothing to go on.

If I was to guess I would say Equinor, based only on the way they have approached and dealt with GBP.

Chevron already have a Walvis licence (PEL82) and one might thing if they like what they see in the nearby PEL82, they would be eager to secure additional acreage nearby.

Anyone’s guess obviously.

What do other people here think/guess?

N

Seems like there is hope for very high porosities for Marula (and therefore most likely the other plays in the licence which are all similar age ie Maastrichtian). High porosity means high permeality which means good oil flow into well and high oil production per meter reservoir. Low permeability seem to be one of the problems with the Shell discoveries in the Orange basin.

Note that the Marula prospect has an overburden of only 1500m or so vs Shells Graff Discovery of about 2500m. More overburden will compact the reservoir sands more and lower porosity and permeability.

The very exciting thing about GBPs PEL94 is the number of same age Maastrichtian plays so that if we hit oil in Marula with good reservoir properties then there is every chance many of the other prospects come good also as long as the trapping mechanism works (Marula trapping mechanism is special as it onlaps onto sea floor high to the West).

N

«Using the log data from the nearest offset well (2012/13-1), which has a similar-aged and type of sandstone reservoir to Marula, to perform porosity and fluid substitution analyses. These demonstrate that if this sandstone was increased in porosity from that seen in the well and charged with oil, then the resulting AVO anomaly matches that seen at Marula. This allowed the assumed porosity at Marula to be increased, with the impact of further increasing prospective resources.»

https://globalpetroleum.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/23-03-27-GBP-RNS-PRs-PEL94-Marula-2023-Final.pdf

«The Ugab River is located in Walvis Bay and has provided the sedimentary entry point in to the Walvis Basin since the late Early Cretaceous time. This river has its source in the South African plateau of the Congo craton and Damara belt and crosses the marginal bulge, a conspicuous large-scale feature, close to the outcrops of the 132 to 125 Ma Etendeka flood basalt [4]. Interestingly, the Etendeka volcanic province provides only ~4% of the present day of the sand in sandy beaches of the Skeleton Coast [1]. From the Murombe well result, it is likely that longshore drift has provided a clean-quartz-rich sand into the Walvis Basin since the late Early Cretaceous».

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/320615183_Hunting_turbidites_in_the_Walvis_Basin_offshore_Namibia

Sorry should read:…so no way the write off ONLY NOW have «spooked» or possible farmin partner…….

The problems with Shells discoveries (porosity, permeability and gas content) have been known to the industry for a long time (Ithere are plenty of Upstreamonline articles on this last year) so no way the write off new have «spooked» or possible farmin partner.

The Chevron well only spudded December 20th so no one would know ANYTHING on drilling results until second or third week of January, long after end of the year so cannot have spooked our farminee.

I still think the reason we are late is that these things take time. Gil from Eco Atlantic said their deal with Total in South Africa for far out of Blocks 3B/4B took nearly a year to negotiate.

IMHO

N

Kever

Omars posted that the company needed no cash 3months ago. Things change we all now that. I am sure the money will be well spent to speed up progress on all fronts.

AIM is a terrible place to raise cash so a significant discount to share price before placing is normal….just ask Jeremy at TRP.

Timeline was set by GBP but they dont run the show. Alone. The commercial farmin partner and partners Namcor and Aloe all need to agree. I believe Namcor has a 17% free carry TO FIRST OIL (not only exploration) so that is perhaps what is being negotiated (down) with the farmin partner and is why it takes time.

The current commitment is the acquisition of 2,000 sq. kms of 3D (firm) and drill a well (contingent). Really hope they can convince the farmin partner ( with the consent of the Namibian authorities) to drill Marula and as such swap commitments so that 3D then becomes contingent. Hopefully in only a few days or weeks we will now!!

I’m actually now VERY excited about the Juno Project as the upside here could be enormous, and progress is very good and all results do far extremely promising. Just look at the share price history of Greatland Gold (the company that found the Haverion Gold/Copper deposits that our Partner Mr Baxter led). Juno could be much bigger than Haverion.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/GGP/greatland-gold-plc/company-page

Can believe we are at £8.08 million market cap!?!

Kind regards

N

Kever, again, there could be many reasons they cannot reply to your emails. Did they reply before to any of your emails?

Kind regards

N

Kever there could be many reasons they cannot reply to your emails. Did they reply before to any of your emails?

Kind regards

N

Just added 5 of the GBP derampers to my filter. Works great!

I can now read informative posts from normal people without having to read through the drivel.

Highly recommended!

N

Havieron, a large IRGS gold and copper deposit +8Moz gold equivalent…...Juno could easily be 10x that if all goes well! Can’t believe we are at > £10 million market cap still. The upside is massive!!!!

Then there is Namibia…

N

Chevron continues to activate its strong and GROWING (!!!) exploration portfolio, the company says. So are they our farmin partner? Already in licence PEL82 (same Walvis basin) and PEL90 (Orange basin).

(Probably reading too much into this but just saying).

GLA

N

« Updated 43 minutes ago

Chevron's initial bid for glory in Namibia's Orange basin has failed, with the US operator failing to find commercial hydrocarbons with its debut exploration well.

On Wednesday afternoon, the US supermajor confirmed in a statement what multiple sources had been telling Upstream since Monday - that the rapidly drilled Kapana-1X probe in Petroleum Exploration Licence 90 was unsuccessful.

"Chevron reached total depth 25% ahead of plan in the frontier Kapana-1X exploration well.

"While the well did not find commercial hydrocarbons, it provides valuable information on important aspects of the basin and our effective and efficient execution increases our confidence in our future programme," said the company.

The statement added: "We are incorporating results and anticipate future exploration activity in Namibia," adding that Chevron "continues to activate its strong and GROWING exploration portfolio."

Over the last two days, exploration sources contacted by Upstream said either that Kapana-1X - which spudded around 20 December - was a dry hole or that it had oil shows.

The results of this probe are in stark contrast to the success TotalEnergies seems to be having on its exploration tract directly to the south, where Upstream reported on Wednesday that its latest exploration well, Tamboti-1X, has made a discovery».

https://www.upstreamonline.com/exploration/chevron-first-bid-for-orange-basin-glory-in-namibia-fails/2-1-1765183

Updated 15 January 2025, 10:44

«TotalEnergies may have another big discovery on its hands in Namibia’s Orange basin, according to four industry sources.

If confirmed, a fresh find would be welcome news to a government that was last week having to rebut Shell’s view that the discoveries on its block were not currently commercial, somewhat tarnishing the basin’s glittering exploration reputation.

Semi-submersible drilling rig Deepsea Mira spudded the Tamboti-1X exploration almost three months ago in the northern part of Block 2913B.

Before the well was spudded, Patrick Pouyanne, the French supermajor’s chief executive, said it would be aiming for a structure that could hold 1 billion barrels of resource.»

https://www.upstreamonline.com/exclusive/does-totalenergies-have-a-new-billion-barrel-discovery-on-its-hands-in-namibia-/2-1-1764520

Alsns55 I agree with you fully.

Anyway please do remember that as negotiations are getting close to being finalised one would expect less and less being said by the parties (outside RNS) so not to divulge price sensitive information. So silence probably indicates we are close!

N

Seems like there is hope for very high porosities for Marula (and therefore most likely the other plays in the licence which are all similar age ie Maastrichtian). High porosity means high permeality which means good oil flow into well and high oil production per meter reservoir. Low permeability seem to be one of the problems with the Shell discoveries in the Orange basin. Here is hoping:)

N

«Using the log data from the nearest offset well (2012/13-1), which has a similar-aged and type of sandstone reservoir to Marula, to perform porosity and fluid substitution analyses. These demonstrate that if this sandstone was increased in porosity from that seen in the well and charged with oil, then the resulting AVO anomaly matches that seen at Marula. This allowed the assumed porosity at Marula to be increased, with the impact of further increasing prospective resources.»

https://globalpetroleum.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/23-03-27-GBP-RNS-PRs-PEL94-Marula-2023-Final.pdf

«The Ugab River is located in Walvis Bay and has provided the sedimentary entry point in to the Walvis Basin since the late Early Cretaceous time. This river has its source in the South African plateau of the Congo craton and Damara belt and crosses the marginal bulge, a conspicuous large-scale feature, close to the outcrops of the 132 to 125 Ma Etendeka flood basalt [4]. Interestingly, the Etendeka volcanic province provides only ~4% of the present day of the sand in sandy beaches of the Skeleton Coast [1]. From the Murombe well result, it is likely that longshore drift has provided a clean-quartz-rich sand into the Walvis Basin since the late Early Cretaceous».

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/320615183_Hunting_turbidites_in_the_Walvis_Basin_offshore_Namibia

Jungmana I agree with you that GBPs licence is CURRENTLY a lot more valuable that TRPs as a large part of GBPs licence is covered by 3D seismic and more importantly also lies over mature Kudu marine shale source rock. This is the same source rock as have generated and charged all the oil in the recent Venus, Graff, Mophane discoveries in the Orange basin. I would expect GBP to get a free carry on one exploration well (plus some pocket money) retaining say 15% but giving away 63% of the licence.

TRP are relying on the syn rift lacustrine shale source rock they have identified and that they believe is mature and able to generate billions of barrels in the dolphin graben (some of this mature source rock is also in GBP licence) and this looks very very promising. This is still work in progress though.

GLA

N

Dicko 80

Agree … well done Jeremy. Will be exciting to what comes out of the well in a few months. Hopefully all the subsurface work done will come good and TRP will become an oil producer while still exploring for more oil in the adjacent structures.

GLA

N

Lucky that’s my thinking as well…Namibia was a sweetener to get the deal over the line:)

Onwards and upwards

N

«On Wednesday, in its fourth-quarter trading update, Shell said its upstream business expected to take exploration well write-offs of about $400 million.

A Shell spokesperson told Upstream that because the supermajor’s Orange basin discoveries “cannot currently be confirmed for commercial development… we are required to class the discovered resources as ‘commercial, non-viable’ and take a write-off of the capitalised well spend.”


“This is an accounting process and does not represent ongoing efforts in PEL 39, where we see potential additional opportunities beyond the wells we have drilled and are writing off,” said the spokesperson, adding that “the extensive data collected shows that there remain opportunities.”»

https://www.upstreamonline.com/exploration/orange-basin-bubble-bursts-as-shell-says-its-namibia-discoveries-are-uneconomic/2-1-1762537

Note Shell says they are looking for further exploration opportunities in NAMIBIA this implies they are looking outside the Orange Basin:

«In an emailed statement, Shell said it has drilled six exploration and three appraisal wells across PEL 39, “more than in any other exploration block in Namibia,” stressing that it continues “to explore potential commercial pathways to development, while actively looking for further exploration opportunities in Namibia.”»

https://www.upstreamonline.com/exploration/orange-basin-bubble-bursts-as-shell-says-its-namibia-discoveries-are-uneconomic/2-1-1762537

Is it this Tom winnifrith we are talking about?

«In September 2017, Winnifrith authored an article that claimed that the FCA would not be shutting down Beaufort Securities.[10] In March 2018, Beaufort Securities was shut down, declared insolvent, and charged with fraud, following a joint FCA, FBI, SEC and DOJ investigation.[11][12][13][14][15]

His time as CEO of Rivington Street Holdings (RSH) has also come under criticism, including accusations of multiple compliance failures while running a regulated company and acting "ultra vires", attempting to sell an FSA regulated entity without the approval of the RSH board»

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Winnifrith

Dec 27th they had increased their holding to 10.034% (at .3pish?) and again now Jan7th to 11.2041%

They must like what they see! Plenty of other small oil or gold minnows out there (EcoAtlantic or TRP for example) so why did they pick GBP?

N

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/cantor-fitzgerald-europe-increases-stake-global-petroleum-plc