Gold price and ETF's22 Sep 2020 13:01
Since its a quiet week.
The gold price has been coming off recently -hovering around 1900 atm- this is not what you would normally expect given govt debt, money printing, falling stock prices etc.
However the reason for this are the ETF's. Most Gold ETF's use to contain mainly gold contracts, physical etc. They closely followed the gold price . Demand for ETF's would drive up the gold price and vice versa. ETF's were a very liquid way of hedging using gold.
Increasingly though the hedging of Gold has exploded, pushing up the price, and many newer ETF's have launched. buying just Gold has fallen out of fashion partly for risk purposes - particularly if the gold is brought at record highs- partly the share growth of companies such as Franco has delivered greater returns.
Now instead of just gold, ETF's are investing in anything gold related, streamers, royalities, producers, even explorers. This has caused a fall in the demand for real gold or gold contracts and bubbled many of the above alternatives. Hence why the gold price isn't going all guns blazing for 2000oz.
Now you might think wouldn't it be nice if they invested in SOLG...? The answer is a massive NO.
Many of the ETF's that have invested in alternative gold areas have fallen in the last few weeks (peaking in August), many are waking up to the froth and bad decisions the ETF's have made. (if you want to hedge why not just buy Franco or Newmont shares directly). These ETF's were set up quickly without much skill behind them.
As money flows out of them they enter a spiral of falling prices , falling assets and quickly become distressed sellers. Some ETF's are down as much as 20-30% since August, some 5% or more just this week. The very last thing SOLG needs are distressed sellers in a generally low liquidity market. If you don't believe this will happen look up the lithium ETF's that sprang up when Lithium prices increased, massive outflows, massive price falls and lots of distressed share selling.
They won't care what they sell at, as its not their money.
So IMO, and its just my opinion, be a bit glad that SOLG has been overlooked by certain funds, factoring in a 1800oz gold price is good and sensible and stay clear of the froth and bubbles that have been created...