Member Info for theiceberg

No your not missing anything, just folks thinking they can invest 10k for a week double their money and then sell again. If that doesn’t happen they get angst.

First trade of the day a buy at 6.98 current buy price 6.89.
The honest truth is very little movement at all today however I doubt there are many shares to be had below 7p

I can’t remember tbh. But it’s more important to think about why it takes this long we pretty much know the reasons.
It doesn’t seem to be geology related.
I do accept that the bod have been given some optimistic timeframes from smp and had a dose of bad luck when it came to the brakes.
For the next hole though things should be quicker and more streamlined.
There certainly isn’t any evidence that anything bad is happening and that any manipulation re drill is going on.

Are reading far too much into this imho.
It’s a drill. They are drilling.
We know that aaog want to release news when they can.
We also know that any rns has to be signed off by the Congolese department.
We know they have a meeting with the department today which DS has flown out to attend.

They won’t be delaying anything. Smp won’t be delaying anything. Everybody will be focused on getting things done.

Imho give them time to get the drill down. However much time is needed.
I understand this might not fit with folks investing timelines but I doubt the company cares.

Using the London stock exchange own website thereby are no rns for either the mining or oil sector first time I can remember this after in a none holiday period.

Regardless the meeting seems to be a natural point to release news post meeting

I think lse might have an rns issue. I’ve never known there not be a single rns for any oil mining company etc. No real rns’s have been released for any company at 7am

Those 50.100.150k trades aren’t real.
Essentially somebody will borrow the money from their broker for 100k of shares for 5-20 days once the 5-20 days are up they need to sell the shares and close the borrow. Then they can open it up again for another 100k of shares and so on. Each time they pay the spread cost,dealing charges and any other costs.
It’s one of the reason why so many folks are complaining about the time taken.
Personally I hate T trades they are a form of gambling and distort the market and can lead to big losses. They also encourage market manipulation.
The problem is during their buy and sell different mms will take part in each set once a mm has taken the shares on the bid they will likely move lower

And with 30secs to go lowers it to 7p still with no shares. Finishing price below 7p and somebody’s spread has done well.
Obviously a company that doesn’t even know about Chinese walls let alone enforces them.

Jub comes in at 7.1 sits if the ask and then doesn’t have any shares to sell. Pure manipulation to keep the sp at or below 7p.

In the ask though to 7p with only 2 mms below 7.5. Might end up nicely blue today

Matd was planned to be 2200 but only drilled 1500m as they got the geology incredibly wrong.
Aaog has a much larger salt with different geology.
Aaog also has a range of targets.
Aaog is also a production class well rather than an exploration well with more casing etc.
Obviously on top of this we obviously had a couple of issues.

Obviously today we’ve seen over 2% traded today. In reality it’s less than 1% imo.
For the last week or so we’ve seen a steady flow of paired rolled over Tx trades. Every time they have to pay for the buy sell margin etc and will be cross with delays.
Real holders though are happy :)

Obviously today we’ve seen over 2% traded today. In reality it’s less than 1% imo.
For the last week or so we’ve seen a steady flow of paired rolled over Tx trades. Every time they have to pay for the buy sell margin etc and will be cross with delays.
Real holders though are happy :)

What a piled on over reaction.
Mr Helga is his previous tweet overplayed the problems with a clear agenda. This time he has done the same again but all he’s said is a delay of a few days.
We knew that. Heavy rain had left a mark on the drill pad which needed correcting and the pumps had a problem.
The first zone in the chela hit oil.
The second zone is currently being reached. Hopefully a good update before the weekend.
David hasn’t lied and folks just need to let them do their job without trying to micro interpret without any information.

Makes sense a near certainty on seal and reservoir as these are large area geological Features. Pretty high chance for fault placement and lowest chance subscribes for migration of oil due to distance from closest successful well.
Given this the cos will be artificially low imo id probably put it at closer to 40% from a none stats POV.
The fault might be a feature seen in existing drilling to date.
Despite all this I do wonder whether worse case might be. Djeno with some oil but only 500-1000 bops rather than the hopefully 5000bopd.

COS is incredibly complicated. Bizarrely the actual successs rate of a drill is only loosely connected to the cos.
The cos is a statistical occurrence.
I’ve just put something on Twitter. Cos is to do with trap, source, migration. They can all be 50% but the cos comes out at 15%.
Importantly cos is also affected by distance from nearest hole that has drilled that zone and how many holes drilled in the license area. Type of strata etc.
Given all of this even with an 80% chance of a good source rock etc the best your going to get is about 35%.
Sounds weird but.

And the issue was too much oil in the mud!
Yep heard the same. PI sands will likely have oil shows all over then however the zones themselves will obviously have higher saturation.

R1 and 2 are approx 4-10m the formation they are in is approx 400-500m which are the PI sands. The PI sands also contain Mengo at the base.

So we’ve got R zones hopefully tomorrow, Mengo hopefully Monday next week.
We have license meeting Friday.
We have general meeting Monday.
We have wire logging probably Friday next week.

Licensing will be awaiting a requirement/ commitment from aaog to the Congolese govt. that it will drill x holes over x months. No point committing to that until 103 has successfully hit Mengo as a minimum.
Once all that is done the simple matter of hitting the next 2 targets and then flow testing.
I make an incredibly rich dec and jan.

That’s exactly how this works. A good investment will be reviewed quarterly with bod discussions etc a red and falling investment like this will be reviewed by the relationship manager and the bod weekly or monthly and then internally probably weekly