Member Info for TheFarEnd

Surely this is the classic boom and bust scenario, it cannot continue.....can it?

Data suggests that the economic recovery has lost momentum in recent months with economic growth slowing sharply to 2.1% in August,” said Nationwide chief economist Robert Gardner.

“Nevertheless, housing market activity has remained robust. Mortgage approvals for house purchase climbed to 91,500 in September – the highest level since 2007.”

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/house-prices-uk-nationwide-index-market-property-071000751.html

"We've weathered worse storms than this".
We sure have Suzy, I was just going through some old investments and came across this.
Seems on the 2nd June 2015 I bought 250k @ the grand price of 1.65 pence, now that must have been a bad storm.

This statement should send the 20p minus brigade packing, but this is a stock market who knows what's next?

Sometimes it pays to fact check Zero hedge, some of the articles on there do wonder into the realms of fantasy land.
But I do find it useful to wind up snowflakes from time to time with its right wing views.

PC, I've done the same, in fact I didn't take any of my entitlement as it was below the 'strike' price before the take up date.
Theoretically if you have purchased more than 86% of your pre offer holding you have not been diluted.
The opportunity only presented itself because of the SP collapse prior to the exercise date.
I've found when you can buy at a discounted price
sometimes it pays to sell it asap as quite often the SP will drift down to the original offer price.
I've increased my holding here by over 140%, but I probably wouldn't have done if it wasn't for recent events.

PC is right about percentages but the reason I said at the time that we will be diluted is you could only apply for your entitlement according to your holding before the fund raise.
This was not a usual RI so it could not be oversubscribed. At the time I could not buy more in the actual fund raise than my entitlement.
The fact that it wasn't fully subscribed and especially with the continued SP drop gave everyone AFTER the event to buy more than their entitlement. Of course that was your decision.
If you added more after the offer, that's another and different matter.

"We've been arithmetically diluted, but not economically diluted" that's a new one on me Pianista, wether you've been "economically diluted" remains to be seen.

You can put what spin on this you want but the fact is your holding has been diluted due to the fund raise.

Well she would say that she's a German MEP.

Remember these words -
They think it's all over...... It is now.

And some still can't believe it.

Pleased to see at last there is some debate ongoing about about recent events.
These issues always happen after fundraising further exacerbated by the consolidation (just like AIM on here).
Peeps inevitably compare a "new for old" SP and inevitably the arguments ramble on.
As time goes on and hopefully SAGA prospers they will become a distant memory.
Now this equity raise, dilution and consolidation is done, the best way IMO is to base any investment decisions on the current figures as they now are and not keep harping back to what was.
I somehow doubt that will happen, but that's my view.

Does this include the £150 million raised in the consolidation?
Yes, minus £10m costs.

SumOverHistories, it's all academic now, however the market cap is only c£200m ATM.

LTI, I guess most private investors who had a previous interest here have taken advantage of recent events. I've made a few bob here in the past.
This intervention by Hann has hopefully done us all a favour. Onwards and upwards.

I can hear the calculators going :-)
LTI, I know you are better with figures than me, I'm just trying to put some realism into some of the comments on here.

I've only ever questioned the constant posting of the 33p offer is now 495p, which takes the value of the offer from £370m to £693m.
I've said nothing about the perceived value of the company post the cash raise.

SumOverHistories, figures used.
Issued shares before capital raise 1,122,000,000
Issued shares after capital raise 2,093,921,536
Additional shares issued
971,921,536
Issued shares after consolidation 140,000,000

All approximate.

An explanation would help Pianista.

Pianista, there's no error in my logic. The topic was as the title suggests "Last month offer of 33p old price" If you re-read my answer I clearly state.
Anything that happened "before the placing became conditional, is totally irrelevant" meaning also, anything that happened after the placing is also irrelevant to anything that happened before.
I can see no correlation between the £370m (266p) approach and the £140m raised.
Where is the logic in that, so far nobody can explain that.

This is also true "Adding 86% more shares and dividing them by 15 doesn't increase the original £370m (think about that)."

You quote the £140m raised as having a plus effect on the £370m offer, whilst failing to mention the additional 971,921,536 shares it costs us.

Can someone/anyone show the BB any credible figures to illustrate how they have come to the conclusion that the past 33p offer is now worth in excess of my 266p explanation?
If not, why keep comparing the 'old' SP to today's SP, its meaningless.

Rocket79, would you like to give your reasons for valuing Saga at £1.4 billion within the next 12 months.
I'm sure many invested here would be interested in your analysis.
We await your response, but probably not holding our breath, cheers. :-))

Pianista, I believe it was you ridiculed me for pointing out that the forthcoming equity raise would result in a dilution of your current holdings. First you disagreed, then you replied somewhat mockingly, just buy more than your entitlement and you won't get diluted.
Sadly you don't seem to have learnt from your earlier view's, (If it wasn't you I apologize).

No calculations required, let me simplify this for you and for the benefit of many on this BB who seem to believe what they read on here and are consequently suckered in by false information.

Sometime prior to September 1st a US consortium made an approach for the company. That offer was worth just north of £370m which at the time equated to 33p per share.
You are saying that £370m is now worth £693m (495p). Even your revised/adjusted post consolidation equivalent of 465p equates to £651m.
Adding 86% more shares and dividing them by 15 doesn't increase the original £370m (think about that).
My valuation today of the 33p pre September offer is the equivalent of 266p which surprise surprise, is just north of £370m.

Anything that occurred or in this case didn't occur, before the placing became conditional, is totally irrelevant. That is why the 495p being quoted on here is totally false. And so is your revised 465p figure.
Probably another good reason to only post the current SP, the pre consolidation price is history and also totally irrelevant.

If you stick by your calculation Pianista perhaps you could enlighten everyone with your explanation.

There seems to be a lot of so-called "investors" on here who either don't have a clue or can't comprehend this recent equity raise and subsequent consolidation.

There have been several comments on here and not just yesterday afternoon mentioning a previous offer of 495p.

"The calculation is very simple 33p x 15".
Sorry Pianista, but it's not as simple as that, I also fail to understand the relevance of the SP at the time of the equity raise in relation to the 33p offer.

Just to clarify.
For the uninitiated on here the offer made, was today's equivalent of c266p not 495p or even 465p.
I suggest you do the maths again.

I remember seeing some yugoslavs loading up their cornflakes with slivovitz, don't know if it was a one off but no milk for them that day.
Just saying.

I see the weekend double act are back, so keen to get on stage they've started Friday night.

"What a brilliant insightful, piece of analysis"
FJGooner.
If you're referring to Marcus post @ 15:29
("The calculation is very simple 33p x 15, I'll let you practice with your calculator to work out the answer.") then like many others on here believe it's simple, but it's wrong.
You may need a calculator to work it out, think about it, but it's in the region of 265p.

If you go on any BB on here you won't have to scroll down far to see words something like..... this will fly when a vaccine is found etc, etc.
To some extent they are right, the wealth of the nation, all nations probably depends on it. It will be a lot harder to try and live with it.