RE: Tick, Tick Tock , The Shorter's are now on HEMOs Clock.19 Jan 2024 09:26
This has got to be one of the best summaries to why you should buy a share that i have ever read and is worth reposting.
As for the bull case at Hemogenyx?
Setting aside CBR - Potential cure for all viruses inc Disease X
Setting aside CDX - Replacement for most Chemotherapy in talks to licence
Setting aside Hu-PHEC - On Shelf, remove need for doner bone marrow
Focusing ONLY on HEMO-CAR-T -
CAR-T treatment for a rare AML with poor survival rates and few options recommended by the FDA
Lots of example CAR-T licencing deals in past few years and figures range from few 100m to 1b+(upfront cash/biobucks/milestone payments)
HEMO-CAR-T was put on clinical hold last year because the FDA had one issue with the lentivirus, Hemogenyx predicted this issue BEFORE the FDA confirmed it using AI. They worked on a solution, proved it worked and approached the FDA with a plan to resolve the issue and lift the Clinical Hold, this plan was reviewed by the FDA and approved.
Hemogenyx have implemented this plan as agreed and PROBABLY late last week submitted a response to the Clinical Hold to the FDA.
Because the FDA have already approved this plan the chances of the FDA lifting the hold are extremely good which would in effect move Hemogenyx from Non-clinical to clinical. If you look at this sector CAR-T IS expensive, one treatment is a few 100k. Early stage oncology pharma with CAR-T attract mCaps of 100-300m+ minimum in America it would be alot more. Hemogenyx currently under 30m so the upside is HUGE. Others have given examples of how significant going clinical is to valuation, no reason Hemogenyx should be any different.
When it comes to funding it is correct Hemo WILL need money, which is where Prevail come in, they have already invested at a premium and PROBABLY will invest further when Hemo announce they are clinical and are starting trials, which Prevail Infoworks will run.
Red flags check:
CLNs, toxic debt - None
Warrant overhang - CEO has SOME warrants around 2.5p HOWEVER he wants to maximise his control so unlikely to convert sell any time soon.
Discount placing - Cannot place until mid Feb, would be AFTER clinical so not really an issue, but PROBABLY going to be Prevail anyway which is welcome
Binary chance of failure - Ignoring CBR, CAR-T may be binary, it is either approved or not, but chances of being rejected is minimal as the full review was already done. One issue was found, it was resolved and FDA approved the plan, now they just need to sign off.
Other positives - Significant growth in sticky shareholders (We are greedy)
Significant shorts or as I call them, deferred buyers whom I believe have really screwed up this time.
Timeline is now controlled by FDA, NOT Hemogenyx, FDA could respond tomorrow, or a few weeks, making it hard for traders or shorters who really are gambling.
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