Member Info for Thechukkers

Looks like I jinxed it

Wish the 100k seller would disappear already strange time to be selling imo but they seem to take whatever price they can get

botswana has transformed itself from a bush , a dirtroad next to that bush to a modern democratic society in 50 years or so, i think they are doing things quite fast, in fact its has been the third fastest growing economy in the world
i think the Batswana know how important it is to have their own source of energy rather than relying on others if they wish to continue this path...all of a matter of time, i am willing to wait

cannot justify the selling pressure here. the market acts either irrationally or it has information that i dont
thinking the first one is true

yep, its getting harder and harder for me to find justification for this low mcap, but i have given up trying to find one as i will just hold and see what unfolds in the future, i have been here before last time i sold out due to tender award delay, i knew it was gonna be a painful year for tlou but now we are so close to company changing news, that will without a doubt accelerate the growth of this company imo and therefore with growth on the horizon the company could attract bigger investors here...botswana as i have said is one of the safest places in africa to operate in. and i have never heard tony promise something to investors he knows he cant achieve...

Basically not a question of whether the gas flow rates will be commercial but how commercial ...all looking promising imo

Yes I have heard them say that one of the interested parties is botswana development corporation.. so everything seems to point to a rozy future here. if all goes as you point out trader I wouldn't be surprised to see all time highs being broken here given we were at 17p right before we expected tender results last year. Of course a lot has been done in the mean time

My guess is we will get them in the next two weeks. Not sure myself whether to add more or not. Tlou already makes up a huge part of my portfolio

Of course ppa and financing would make it easier for the company to pursue it's objective think the sp in fact may be lagging as no one is really sure in what form the financing does come but hope is that it comes from debt not a placing

good to see you here as well...lots of podcasts out there, tony not one to ramp the company though, i personally think with the tender award on our grasp finally after a year long delay this sp would indeed be seen as very cheap in the future once the commercial flow rates are out, as we can supply electricity for decades and there is pretty much endless demand, of course not all black and white as always things are going at a different pace in Africa, but Botswana seems to be one of the best countries in Africa to operate in

chris if you look at how much of south africa is without electricity, and how much of the households that do have access to electricity are experiencing constant blackouts then id think you would find tlou to be perfectly positioned to take advantage of the gap in the market...

Good to see them explicitly state the ppa negotiations are not dependant on gas flow rates..although nothing new really in the rns

i think i got something mixed up one graph shows what i said the other source tells me that the gas flow rates will improve for a few years before reaching peak, and the more gas saturated it it the less time it should take and the better the gas flow rates...
For coals that are 100% gas saturated, gas will be produced as soon as the pressure is decreased by producing water from the cleats. Gas rates will ramp up to a peak over several years and then decline. For undersaturated coals, gas will not be produced until the pressure in the cleats has been drawn down below the saturation pressure. Gas will be liberated more slowly, resulting in a longer period to achieve peak gas rates, as well as lower peak rates. There have been several cases in which companies have drilled numerous development wells based on early gas rates of a few hundred Mscf/D per well, believing that the rates would increase substantially with additional dewatering and well interference. Failure to recognize the undersaturated state of their coals and the impact of this condition left them with dozens of low-rate, marginally economic or uneconomic wells.
this would imply that early gas rates are not so telling anyways, unless they have a way of estimating it, which seems unlikely given that they are taking the actual gas flow rates now !?

take what i said with a pinch of salt though as i am no expert in this
i have more trust in tony than in myself :P

i was reading about coal bed methane, and it seems it takes roughly the equivalent time to get from CDP to stable production , as it does to get from the start of dewatering to CDP i have a chart on twitter as well, but i think the time varies quite a bit so too hard to tell i guess
i wouldnt call it a delay brad i dont think anyone thought the flow rates would come immediately after reaching cdp. anyways from what i can gather everything points to the likelyhood of commercial gas flow rates which is why i have an inkling that the sp wont move too much once the flow rates are out, i think it would need to be better than the minimum required for commercial for the sp to move significantly if you know what i mean

I think you know it's more complicated than just a matter of one rns...I assume the majority of investors already expect commercial flow rates so I don't expect the sp to move on flow rates rather we will start moving after ppa with botswana is announced and we can start focusing on growth the sp will respond might be a long hold though imo

the majority of the placing went to the pension fund as far as i remember and all of the placees agreed to hold their shares for 12 months as far as i am aware
there was a guy on twitter the other day that said a few months back he will be selling due to unforeseen circumstances...hard to say why anyone would sell after buying such a large chunk but i cant see it possible someone got such a low price to buy?

not sure about that, my logic dictates its a sell, why would anyone sell at this price- is no different than speculation tomorrows weather on tea leaves. possible someone just needed the money for other purposes. if it was a buy youd think they get this low price, i would guess they would get this price if it was a worked sell

as they say cash is king, so the closer we get to ppa with government the better imo

i genuinely enjoy reading his posts
on a another note i googled what does piffle mean and accidentally wrote meaning of word piffe
a definition from urban dictionary came up, biggest mistake of my life...