Member Info for Thechukkers

i mean there is no point to think about a third well if the flow rates are not commercial is my point

i understand what he is saying but what are the costs related here, surely the wells are not economical at 60 mcfd ?

would you think the wells would profitable at a rate of 60mcfd i find it unlikely, simply as i have never heard of a cbm producer working with these rates !?

i would consider the link to be more reliable than my own calcs, which were based on average natural gas heat content and pp heat rate, surprisingly i have twice as high numbers :)

considering that electricity sales are expected to come at the end of 2020 you would think they have to spend money on something, and why not mamba. they might not know whether flows will be enough from 3 and 4 but we will imo find out with enough time ahead to dewater lesedi 5 !? should they not be enough
you need 360 for 2mw so thats around 120 only from one well thats well below the average performance of cbm wells which stands at around 170

although i must say the bod would be stupid to continue thinking 3 and 4 are not enough, in fact the way they are going forward seems to imply they are very confident that 3 and 4 will be enough...
few posts back i remember me and another guy worked out how much is required for 1 mw which i got at approx 180mcfd ...its gonna be quite close imo but perhaps someone here knows more so to correct me?

evening justscott
its good that we have lesedi 5 as well should 3 and 4 not be good enough, everything seems to be going very well for us
i dont know what to think of the flow rates but i think the next update should be very revealing.. all we really need is to see gas flow rates increasing

sounds to me like in the next two years long term shareholders might finally be rewarded...the next few months will be crucial for shareholders imo

dont think so at all, but i dont want to excite myself too much i think what i am talking about is worse case scenario so everything that comes better is a bonus for me :P

hi justscott , from what i am reading the gas rates vary quite a bit pet well and it might take longer than i originally thought to reach commercial flow rates, i am holding this view because i dont want anyone to think if no commercial flow rates by end of this year this company is done and dusted lol

this image for future reference
https://petrowiki.org/File:Vol6_Page_244_Image_0001.png

wouldnt it make sense then that horizontal wells help quicken the dewatering time, ?
there was an image as well on that site i think, about a few main cbm production areas that showed one with average rates of around 100mcfd there was some interesting info there, and i think some that we might be able to compare to what we know about our wells to very roughly estimate whats going on here

good question olda, considering the nature of cbm wells there is a bit of luck needed i guess, whilst i think tony knows what he is doing he cant know how the wells perform in the future, he can estimate based on perfrormance but you just never know...so should these wells not be commercial(unlikely imo) we are in deep ****... brad i was reading that as well..what makes even more sense now is starting small, as with cbm wells its hard to prove whether or not they are commercial so they are better off starting small proving the project and scaling up from there once commercial flows are confirmed brilliant imo...

the purpose is to great value i believe, as the more we have in the ground the more the companies is valued should the company ever get bought up, remember we have our own equipment for drilling

personally i doubt it given they have lesedi 5 as well should 3 and 4 not be enough
the negative decline rates were for water...

One of the key producing properties in the Black Warrior basin is the Cedar Cove field (Fig. 6.6). It contains 517 producing wells and produces approximately 20% of the total coal gas from the basin.[79] The average well in this field is drilled on an 80-acre spacing and reaches a peak gas rate of 150 Mscf/D in 600 days. The well remains at this rate for approximately 4.5 years before declining. Approximately one-third of the wells peak at less than 100 Mscf/D, one-third peak in the 100 to 300 Mscf/D range, and the other one-third peak at more than 300 Mscf/D. Projected average gas reserves are 820 MMscf per well over a 30-year project life.

was looking for some info about wells. seems the average well may take several years before commercial rates are acheived
here is a link to read
https://petrowiki.org/PEH:Coalbed_Methane
seems the performance of the wells varies quite a bit so will be interesting to see how well these wells do in the long run
think we wont wee 100mcfd by end of this year personally . however i dont think that should defer investment from bpc as the gas has been proven to flow that in itself is a massive step imo and if it does take several years to start off from 20 mcfd idoes seem like excellent result mo.. my guess is by the time we should start selling electricity we might be at around 100 mcfd although hard to say so tea leaves and all that :P

should have saved that doughnut brad, tough times are coming or so i hear, in my personal opinion, when everyone is talking about recession its the best time to buy, as most likely no on e will see it coming

lmao justscott..personally not troubled by todays sp, as i said before the markets are crap, and since we are dealing with cbm wells i dont think the market knows how to value them giiven they are supposed to be INITIAL rates, all the graphs i have seen indicate big rise after water levels have been brought down i dont know why tony announced such rates to be fair, perhaps to put to bed the idea that there is no gas glowing?
i am sure further updates will come and will reveal how the gas flow rates are increasing imo

i agree, especially in this market it is unlikely anything less than excellent will impact the sp positively, just gotta wait it out i guess, must say i was happy with the timetable they provided, given they can keep up
one thing surprised me is they seem very eager to get connected to the sapp