Member Info for TheBasher

Not often you see multiple trades on AIM over £100k value (presumably buys when tallying the time of trade to the then share price) but there have been mutliple trades, some late reported, over the last few days notably £500k on the 8th of November, and £477k on the 7th. My thoughts are that this could well be positions being built quietly before bigger news lands re production.

Under the terms of the Takeover Code section 9.1 related to acting in concert, Hainan and their wholly owned subsidiary Xinmaio own 29.51% of the issued share capital, just 0.4 % away from having to make a mandatory takeover offer. I suspect it would not be challenging for the parties acting in concert to acquire the additional 0.4% to trigger the requirement to make a mandatory takeover offer. I cannot see any guidelines on the level at which that offer must be placed, but a placing valuation is often calculated on the average share price over x period of time. If a similar approach is adopted for the purposes of a mandatory take over offer, it is entirely in Hainan’s interests for this confusion over the tax liability and the resultant negative impact on the share price to continue for a protracted period of time.

@zippernipper

I feel your pain. I never thought I would have another -90% after my early investing days, but IRONVELD is a harsh wake up call to the realities of AIM. And Kodal, what a “merde” - luckily I cashed out before it hit the fan.

KZG could be the star of the show. The CEO is very confident of a positive outcome.

And there we have it. The personal insults.. I rest my case m’lud.

@oldbutnotwisa

I understand the sentiment - so much of AIM is cloaks and daggers, with PI’s getting sucked into what could be generously described as scams. But I do not believe this is one of them. It’s now only a short time frame to find out if indeed 2025 will be transformational for KZG.

@georgeh

I learnt to play rugby at school, and when I came to 5-aside football later in life, my playing style was that of a rugby player, hence my nickname. Nowt to do with investing, but a fun “handle” to have in this environment, and the irony obviously flies over some people’s heads 😉

I’m neither a ramper or basher, just a genuine investor (no longer in KOD, but watching in the event of jumping back in which, as it stands today, is growing ever more unlikely).

I’ve noticed a significant amount of posts calling others out for ramping or bashing. What a waste of time and energy, and it has become quite toxic. A bulletin board should be about the sharing of information and different opinions, and not about trying to win an argument, or to ridicule others that don’t share your view. These petty arguments make not one jot of difference to the share price. Instead, focus on what people are saying about the company and be open minded - there are both inexperienced and experienced investors on these types of forums, plus likely some “bad players” who may be trying to influence peoples actions for nefarious reasons. As a long-time investor trader I will always share my view if I think it could help newer investors learn from my sometimes costly mistakes, and not to have to learn the hard way by losing their money.

So, why not cool down the rhetoric everyone and just stick to the issues around a company and market, rather than label posters and personal insults? It will be a much more informative and happier place to be.

Good luck to you all.

The value of any given asset under the umbrella of a company is the important thing, whether or not it is reflected in the share price or not. KZG are an investment company, and if they are approached about a buyout for one of their assets, it will be based on revenue and assets for that particular asset, and not on the then MCAP (which, as we know, often does not reflect the actual value of the company). If I was selling an asset I would, in very broad terms, be looking to evaluate the asking price based on that asset only (not the entire company, and it’s share price), on a multiple of EBITDA for that particular asset, plus cash in bank minus any debt for that particular asset, and also on forecast revenue and other developments.

Re the 34x - DE is already talking about funding coming from off-take partners to develop the opportunity, and he doesnt sound short of interest. The more they develop the opportunity, the more it will be worth if/when it goes up for sale (they are an investment company after all loooking to cash out on their projects). And what with the imminent 30-year license, and the fac tthat th HMS resources are regenerating by natural wave action, I sincerely believe that he, John Wardle and AMS have played a blinder here, and knew exactly what they were doing when focusing on HMS. If they have got this nailed, I will owe them a debt of gratitude.

To be honest @ Manycats3, I haven't seen a more compelling investment case in all my 30 years of trading/investing. I hope I am not missing something obvious to the contrary, and yes, if this comes off, it will make a huge difference to my retirement planning. I was planning on exiting AIM at the end of this year, but will likely make an exception for KZG given the recent and imminent progress.

It's always worth reminding oneself that this is AIM, so a good dose of prudence and caution is always necessary, so I will not be throwing the kitchen sink at this, however tempting it may be.

I have just watched again the recent Stockbox Media interview and firmly believe this is the best opportunity on AIM.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LBTtiU3S8UU&authuser=0

My key highlights:

4:12 “we know we can make this work”, “accelerating returns for shareholders”.

6:26 on future valuation “fairly easy calculation… if KZG has value of £40m-£50m when in (Walvisklop) production, multiply by 10x, 20x or 30x (for Perdevlei)”.

7:44 on reason for loan arrangement with Tracarta to fund Environmental Guarantee “(wanted to) avoid diluting shareholders just as we are about to go into production”. NB: they expected to have to fund the guarantee next year, and from revenue from existing production.

9:20 Off-takers have expressed interest in funding the building of a bigger processing plant.

10:30 “Days are filled talking to off-takers”.

12:35 when asked if agreements will be signed by the end of the year: “DEFINITELY!”

15:00 Perdevlei is 34x current size

17:16 Imminently profitable – also discussed the fact that KZG is nothing like an exploration company that may deliver a return – KZG is in production.

Taking DE's lower valuation of £40m when in current production, and the lower 10x when in Perdevlei production, that's a MCAP of £400m, or 40x from the current £10m MCAP.

But if you take the £40m and apply the 34x (as mentioned by DE) thats' a MCAP of £1.36bn, or 136x from the current MCAP.

Oh, and then there's the potentially very positive outcome of the AFTAN arbitration, and the revenue from Blue Whale Minerals diamonds.

Ooh, a cheeky cross ramp to a company that has a high chance of going bust through lack of funds!

Neither the Shuka trade of £60k, nor the company itself are in the same league as the £1m or KZG.

Well, if it’s not related, let’s see what Monday brings…

Correction: The KZG bit was referring to the wait for production, not the excellent entry level (though it could still present a great opportunity).

@mannam

Yep, genuine investors just sitting on their hands quietly waiting for production, with the odd sideshow of GTMUFO for entertainment (sorry mate, but you bring it on yourself). As with KZG, recent levels present an excellent entry point, but I’m maxed out on the % of my portfolio I allocate to any particular share.

Meanwhile, in other news, the gold uptrend still appears to be very much in play.

That £1m trade was reported today 8th November, but the registered holders list is at 1st November. What am I missing?

WTF?

Date Time Trade Prc Volume Buy/Sell Bid Ask Value

08-Nov-24 16:35:29 1.125 94,250,000 Unknown* 1.05 1.20 1m O

@mercedesman

Or not.

I’m not here to engage in arguments, just to post a view. My motivation is not to persuade but to express an opinion. The outcome will be what it is. As I said, good luck to you.

@Daz423

Again. And again. And again.

You can keep saying the same thing until you are blue in the face. You could be right, you could be wrong. Good luck to you.

But things change. There is no shame or weakness in reevaluating a changing situation (and this has changed). I hope no one makes the mistake of being emotionally attached to any share. It can be very costly.