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happysparrow market seems blind to the full scope of the picture but today's jump to new highs is welcome. What do we expect group EDITDA will amount to in 2019 with DYAS now and oil / gas trading at year highs?

The HY results revealed $66m revenue from production of 5176 boepd in the Interim period for total sales of 945,982 boe at an average realised oil price of $72.85/bbl and gas price of $44.64/boe.

Worth noting of the $21m EBITDA, they had hedged against lower oil prices and losses for this were $7m. I would expect stable prices at current highs to reduce hedging losses in the back-end of the financial year. $50m EBITDA before DYAS even factored in and probably $110-120m EBITDA with the acquisition now completed.

800 - 1000 fair value in the coming weeks

Looks like they are keeping the 4% annual divided (1% paid quarterly at current share price)

Caledonia declares quarterly dividend of 6.875 cents per share

(NYSE AMERICAN: CMCL; AIM: CMCL; TSX: CAL)

St Helier, October 2, 2018: Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc ("Caledonia" or the "Company") today announces that its board of directors has declared a dividend of six and seven eighths United States cents (US$0.06875) on each of the Company's common shares.

The relevant dates relating to the dividend are as follows:

· Ex-dividend date: October 11, 2018

· Record date: October 12, 2018

· Dividend cheque mailing date: October 26, 2018

Shareholders and depositary interest holders in Canada and the UK will be paid in Canadian Dollars and Sterling respectively. The Canadian Dollar and Sterling dividend payments will be calculated using the relevant Bank of Canada exchange rates on the record date.

Caledonia's Dividend Policy

Caledonia's strategy to maximise shareholder value includes a quarterly dividend policy which the board of directors adopted in 2014. It is expected that the current dividend of twenty-seven and a half United States cents per annum, paid in equal quarterly instalments, will be maintained.

About Caledonia Mining

Caledonia's primary asset is a 49% interest in an operating gold mine in Zimbabwe ("Blanket Mine"). In August 2018, Caledonia announced that it had signed a memorandum of understanding to increase its shareholding in Blanket Mine to 64%, subject to the execution of a legally binding sale agreement and regulatory approvals. Caledonia's shares are listed on the NYSE American (symbol: CMCL) and on the Toronto Stock Exchange (symbol: CAL) and depositary interests representing the shares are traded on London's AIM (symbol: CMCL).

As at June 30, 2018, Caledonia had cash of approximately US$5.3m. Blanket Mine plans to increase production from 56,136 ounces of gold in 2017 to approximately 80,000 ounces by 2021; Blanket Mine's target production for 2018 is 55,000 to 59,000 ounces. Caledonia expects to publish its results for the quarter to September 30, 2018 on or around November 14, 2018.

ragnar - beat me to it! So two weeks tomorrow (Wednesday 17th) is the last chance for us all to load up before going ex-dividend. Quarterly results will follow 10 trading days after this with year high basket price and probably highest quarter production assuming management expectations are met.

That's about 13 million sold up to last Friday, highly positive I agree! Add in ODEYs recent disposal not two weeks ago and that's 58 million offloaded and bought back as the share price has climbed off lows.

Another week or two of selling pressure and we will be clear of Lanstead.

Completion of Dyas Acquisition

RockRose Energy Plc is pleased to announce the completion of the acquisition of Dyas B.V., a wholly owned subsidiary of SHV Holdings N.V.

The effective date of the Dyas acquisition was 1st January 2018. On this basis pro-forma production for the year to date for the group was circa 11,000 boepd, split equally between oil and gas.

RockRose has cash at bank at completion of $ 111 million of which $ 52.5 million is restricted. The working capital adjustment attributable to the acquisition of Dyas B.V was EUR 77.3 million.

Andrew Austin, Executive Chairman of RockRose Energy said:

"The completion of this acquisition is a major milestone for RockRose as we build a North Sea focused business of size and scale.

The Company continues to review potential acquisitions while maximising opportunities within our existing asset base."

1) I am not sure where Mr Eales said this but I'd be careful believing every promise the CEO's of AIM listed companies make. The last placing was conducted back in August and will be used for "near term development" of Murambi. Whilst it's due to start production in the next 2-3 months I would expect it to be losing cash initially and note "there has been an increase in mining fleet costs due to the greater size of the area to be exploited". US$0.50 million is being deployed towards the near term development at Murambi but is group cash-flow going to be enough to turn keep this operation running without the need for further finances.

Additionally US$0.50 million is being spent on the "exploration and development at Gomvyi" presumably one exploratory campaign in H1 2019 and US$1 million for "strengthening Rainbow's working capital". This last point is I think quite important. Cash-flow for small mining operations that are ramping up and on the verge of breaking even are always tight and with Murambi coming online I think it's likely cash-flow will be squeezed H1 2019.

To reinforce this point this is a quote from the last placing announcement "During the production ramp-up period to date in 2018, production and selling costs per tonne have exceeded revenues per tonne of concentrate, although these costs are expected to fall significantly on a per tonne basis as production scales. Given the current rate of cash consumption the Board believes that the balance sheet would benefit from additional cash in the form of equity in order to cater for the sometimes irregular sales cycle for its concentrate and ensure sufficient working capital reflecting the Company's complexity and nature of its operations."

The complexity of the operations will only increase this quarter and next with Murambi coming online and cash consumption will continue to hamper the groups balance sheet near term. With Murambi how long will production and selling costs exceed revenues as was the case of Gakara for much of 2018?

I also have my doubts about the value creation even once they achieve optimum production of 400t. In the near term the margins don't leave much room for error and the risk of further dilution and further set backs are still too high for me. As you've mentioned there is decent upside if they can boost the LoM as well as achieve their production targets, if the deal with TechMet to process the concentrate progresses quickly and if Murambi is brought forward and able to operate without consuming all the cash-flow from the company's maiden project then maybe shareholders will be rewarded.

Myself and others it would seem, shouldn't swim against the tide. The stock looks like it fell very far on thin volume in the 4 - 4.2 range. The last two reported trades at 3.4 and 3.42 are buys. I'd expect this to gap up when buyers return.

Oil & gas sector is where the excitement is right now, amazing to see BRENT climb above $83, power through $84 and onto $85 today! Hopefully the momentum will continue this week and on into the next. Difficult to see a solution to the Iranian sanctions crisis and so markets are beginning to price in the effects shortages will have in about a months time.

Iran, the world’s fourth-largest oil producer and the third-most important exporter in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), will be prevented from shipping up to 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) when new U.S. sanctions against Tehran’s nuclear program come on board Nov. 4.

At its 2018 peak in May, Iran exported 2.71 million bpd, nearly 3% percent of daily global crude consumption.

Both Brent and WTI are up about 25%, on average year-to-date, on worries that neither the combined forces of Russian and Saudi Arabian production or the sheer dynamism of U.S. shale, which flooded the world with cheap oil between 2014 and 2017, will be enough to counter the projected global shortfall in supply from November. Many analyst now think $100 for Brent might be possible by the year end or in early 2019.

“Bottom line, the oil markets are staying strong as oil will be undersupplied going into winter,” Phil *****, energy analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago, wrote on Monday. “Conventional supplies of oil are drying up and shale oil process can’t keep pace with increasing conventional and non-conventional oil production rates.”

“Without the risk of an SPR release, and the woefully short response from OPEC last week, I think the market has a ‘green light’ for higher prices and I could see new highs in WTI above the continuation high of $75.27 in the near term,” Scott Shelton, energy broker and analyst with ICAP (LON:NXGN) in Durham, N.C., wrote on Monday.

In other energy trading, gasoline RBOB futures rose 2.04% to $2.1332 a gallon, while heating oil increased by 2.7% to $2.4118 a gallon. Natural gas futures surged 3.3% to $3.106 per million British thermal units.

The alternative was ODEY sold their entire position AND in addition Lanstead sold the majority of theirs to fall below 3% and are still disposing but I highly doubt this is the case. It would be highly irregular for 2 institutional investors that aren't connected to close out on the same day at the same price and be completely shafted by MMs. I think we can pretty much say for certain it was ODEY and the other 45 million trades were on the buy side as the MMs filled the order

mick, ionic - thank you for confirming. If it had been one 90 million trade for 16% of the company it couldn't have been Lanstead or ODEY but like I said earlier today check out ODEY's sale of 8% of the company shares. The dates match being literally two weeks ago to date. Who bought ODEY's stock? Well unless they are still buying probably just lots of different private investors, maybe some retail. All of them below 3%. The market makers could have done any number of things in order to fill the trades and no doubt took advantage of ODEY's position closing out their short position by dropping the bid to 52 week lows. I'd imagine the 8% was being filled in the days leading up to the 17th and once there was enough demand they filled the order at 1.7. This may have been more than one MM taking part. Some risk on their part but they seem to be filling orders fine at 2.2 or thereabouts.

Like others on here have said I don't know too much about Hansource and their intentions, but I guess the chances of them becoming more active has increased. Whether that's buying / selling more stock I can't say but the names associated with the company appear to be Chinese and there in lies the possibility of further strategic partnerships at project or group level. Purely speculative talk on my part of course DYOR, prospects look sweet regardless of Hansource's intentions

https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/09392099/filing-history

Managed to pick up some bargain basement shares at 3.42 having sold a few some around 4 earlier today. Incredible swing! Strip out Bangladesh and the e-payment business would have generated a large profit. Unfortunately the board are chasing high growth yields which are currently loss making with regards Tap Pay. I am not convinced of this strategy but do have confidence that growth in the e-payment business will continue to offset losses and stem the 'bleed' if we can call it that. Investors in MBO have been waiting a long time for meaningful growth and the last set of results are a set back. Still confident if they can get a handle on Admin costs the company can return to profitability. GLA

Was is one large 90m trade or a couple of smaller trades totaling 90m

It would be nice if as Visitor mentioned, the refining cost were clearly listed but it's always been this way. Costs appear cheaper, margins higher despite us knowing otherwise. As long as shareholders are able to gleen from presentations and results the true figures we can still keep a watchful eye on the company's progress.

Going from memory the refining costs relate to ounces refined in the period and basket prices relate to average prices paid for output extracted the previous quarter. There is a 3 month lag, so if prices are rising, the effects take longer to filter through into the results.

Anyway 20.9p to buy with results due this month that should send this back up to 24-25p

Company AGM to approve dividend due November, wonder how long after the ex-dividend date will be. Interim results then in February with a high chance of maiden interim dividend. I'm assuming the current 1.5% dividend will be repeated as we are only talking about £900k

Hey Visitor, good to hear you're doing well elsewhere ;)

I took mine out of AAZ too but a little early considering it was 68/69 this morning. Not invested in HUM yet but have been watching and waiting patiently. Think AAZ will be worth a look in a couple of months if it's still sub 70.

SLP is the hand that keeps on giving of course. Have you checked recent developments of KEFI? Higher risk at this stage but a number of factors pointing towards a higher market value IMO

Yes that was supposed to be my point lol but I got sidetracked responding to that point about the 90 million shares :)

It's probably worth pointing out that the 9.2p fair value is based on the number of shares in issue as of today.

On a more positive note, the value for KEFI's stake in this project is based upon the agreement by multiple parties to take the project from it's current state to production. I don't think the current £12m value reflects the financing that is now in place and would argue the value of this investment has increased beyond the valuation implied at the time of project financing ie. our stake is worth more than the $66m. KEFI may find other suitors are now more inclined to invest or purchase a stake at project level given the security of project financing. Such an offer for a stake in the project would reduce KEFI's majority ownership however and so I don't see that happening unless we are talking about a significant sum.

The shares look cheap most on here agree

For what it's worth here's my take on the current market valuation.

There are 553 million shares in issue as of today which implies a market value of about £12 million ($15.6m)

To answer the point below regarding 90 million shares traded at 52 week lows two weeks ago, I would refer you all to check out the update reporting ODEY Asset Management's disposal of 8% of the listed share capital as well as 0.23% in the form of financial instruments. This took place on the 17th September and amounts to 44.2 million shares and some 1.2 million CFDs. As with every trade there is a buyer to every seller, so 45.4m on either side of the trade is your 90 million traded 2 weeks ago. It seems to fit with the timeline. So I would assume it was ODEY offloading to one or more market makers who would have filled buy orders in the days following.

http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=KEFI&ArticleCode=ol5y0f40&ArticleHeadline=TR1_NOTIFICATION_OF_MAJOR_INTEREST_IN_SHARES

If it was Lanstead two weeks ago we would have received notification of their 8.2% holding falling to below 3% or 0 as in the case of ODEY. I would be very surprised if both Lanstead and ODEY sold out in tandem, it's still my belief Lanstead hold.

Is this good news? I think so.

ODEY has been almost certainly covering their long position with heavy shorting of KEFI stock throughout the year and have reduced their CFD holdings from a peak in April of 12 million plus the 44 million shares gradually down to 0 stock and CFDs today. They no doubt made a handsome sum shorting this and covered their losses when they closed their positions, both long and short at 52 week lows a few weeks ago.

Why?

We now know the reason. Presumably they were told or understood the timing of upcoming events, KEFI were on the verge of securing the last bit of project-level equity. This is a huge step forward towards unlocking shareholder value as has been pointed out but also importantly that was recognised when we rid ourselves of a long term major short.

http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=KEFI&ArticleCode=t8pualoa&ArticleHeadline=TR1_NOTIFICATION_OF_MAJOR_INTEREST_IN_SHARES

Current assets fell faster than current liabilities, this is largely as a result of investments that should continue to help revenues and earnings grow. That said it's a steady as she goes outlook, can't see the same sort of growth continuing in the next 6 months.

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/205957/sigmaroc-doubles-profits-as-new-additions-show-their-worth-205957.html

More than 50% down from peak this year, near 52 week lows despite ramping up production in Q2. The problem with articles like this one highlighted below is even assuming RBW break even at a project level, there will still be more placings to shore up group costs and cash-flow issues. £20m looks fair value to me for the risks and considering what else £20m can get in the current climate. Avoid for now. One anomaly is the Chinese appetite in this sector and they could easily take this out with a low ball 25-30% premium offer.

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/205854/rainbow-rare-earths-about-to-break-even-and-profitability-at-gakara-205854.html

@Uch1hasasuke your calculations look fine to me. But assuming they are even slightly out there's not much margin for error in terms of available cash flow. The company despite their £10m low market value still look too risky for most, myself included, especially when there are much better investment options like SLP which has yielded 7p to 22p in the past few years and continues to grow output. Maybe this company will get a firmer grip on finances but risk of further equity debasing looks high