Member Info for the_shareminator

comeonvog - thanks for your message on the KEFI board. Speaking plainly I'm no expert so I tend to avoid stocks like this one that can't stay profitable in the bad times.

A marginal producer is going to be a struggle to attract new capital from investors when they are operating below breakeven like this and with little scope to change their fortunes in the near term. Marginal producers normally perform stronger than low cost producers when commodities are in an uptrend but gold and copper have been hammered up until very recently. After the correction last week it's not clear if gold will continue to strengthen but I am of the opinion it will which bodes well for companies like RMM if it turns out to be the case.

As operations stand now they are consistently underperforming and have been for more than a year. The grades have been falling despite company targets which are approximately 30-40% higher. It's implied that if grades improve the mine will return to profitability and positive cash flow, although group costs including ongoing exploration would need additional funding.

Now if they could offset this with increasing production they could potentially reduce costs and improve their project economics but the word 'sustain' or 'sustaining' is repeatedly used. They have indicated grades will improve but the proof will be in the pudding and until then the risk of the company missing yet another target remains.

The positive case is a 20 year mine life with strong potential of underground mining, grades improving at depth, cost initiatives and the company belief abnormally low copper grades last quarter will improve.

£20 million value looks cheap assuming the company are right about the grades and gold and copper move up another 5-6% in the lead up to Christmas.

Are you invested for the longer term or looking to capitalise on a short-term rebound?

Jaf may have a point regarding the "PROFITABILTY from day 3" comment although not by inferring repayments of loans denotes the business isn't profitable. La Parilla is surely going to be commissioned and ramp up in stages correct me if I am wrong, so we can presume it will affect cashflow and whilst sales of Tungsten will cover operational costs, it's difficult to say for sure how profitable WRES will be from day 3. Give K3VMC the benefit of the doubt though, after a couple of months of production, it will become clear how well the company are doing

1onic well if you're worried about the bond not being issued then perhaps this is not the share for you.

There are plenty of risks to weigh up here, bonds being recalled are the least of our concerns. The bondholders will have done better due diligence than ANS or the government for that matter before they agreed to the formal mandating back in May. Most of the documentation for the financing in this regard has been completed already.

The gold price has since fallen from around the $1300 mark to where it is today but since then ANS have agreed equity funding on the same base case project economics of $1300/oz. All the parties therefore must have some confidence gold will be at or possibly above this level by the second half of 2020.

Even assuming a $1200 gold price, the project economics are impressive, see the base case figures posted here last week. I think worrying about whether we will receive bond financing before a black swan crash event is a waste of time. The mini wobble we saw recently sent gold $50 higher intra-day and that's just the start of things to come in my opinion. The gold price would surge if we saw a real crash. This is very low down the list of risks KEFI have overcome or will face so I don't foresee it being a problem.

That's GBP not USD

It means our remaining project level equity is valued at around £241 million.

Assuming KEFI secure the financing of TK before any crash then the company should be in a substantially stronger position.

Reposting this for further discussion, ANS Mining Share Company has already signed the binding Project Equity Investment Agreement for its subscription of new equity capital into Tulu Kapi Gold Mines Limited ("TKGM") for a minimum of US$30 million, which would earn an interest in TKGM of 23%. ANS may invest further funds (up to $38 million in total) to increase its interest by another 6% although KEFI will remain the majority shareholder of TKGM. I think when this later event happens we will see a significant rerate.

$30m (lowest case) for 23% of TKGM values KEFI's 56.1% holding at $73m (£55.5m)
$38m for 6% of TKGM values KEFI's 50.1% holding at $317m (£241m)

TKGM have yet to receive the first $30m but once they do, KEFI should rise. I don't think anyone expects it will reach the £55m project equity value for obvious reasons but certainly the share will be back in the 3-4p range. That might sound bullish but bear in mind there is an institutional investor selling stock into the market at a time when buyers are scarce. That won't always be the case...

I am more excited to see ANS complete terms for an additional 6% at $38 million! That event (should it happen) would be enormous for KEFI. It means our remaining project level equity is valued at around $241 million.

ANS has confirmed to KEFI that institutional (banks and insurance companies) demand has exceeded this enlarged US$38 million figure. So assuming the two initial hurdles of receiving the first $9 million for community resettlement compensation and then the subsequent $21-30 million are cleared in the first half of 2019 we could see things really heat up here.

KEFI would not then be an explorer with simple exploration assets nor a producer making steady sales and known margins. Instead KEFI is a hedge on seeing TKGM financed and significantly derisked for the $60 million already invested in the project. Of course at group level it needs to keep costs low but I would expect one or two investment funds to pick up stakes at depressed prices next year once all parties sign off and TKGM begins to receive funds

I'm in agreement with Visitor. Clear path through to £100m (if that's your target) for SLP.

HZM may well attract a major and rerate but then again they may not. So if I wanted to punt on that I would buy a small stake in HZM. In the current market explorers are not attracting much interest. Blame that on the FED raising rates and liquidity moving out the markets coupled with metals falling over recent years.

Now look at how much cash SLP are going to throw off in the next 3 years, especially once Project Echo CAPEX falls, add in rhodium's strength which will do multiples over nickel's performance and I'd wager palladium will continue to outperform. Most of all though, SLP has a proven track record of running a mine profitably.

Not sure if you hold here Qualia144 as it looks like you only popped in to respond to jeffrys post but otherwise post solely to the HZM chatboard. Now's as good a time as any to take a closer look at SLP which goes ex-dividend on Thursday 18th and is expected to have had a stellar quarter in terms of earnings and cash-build.

Back to 22-24p range shortly

These are strange times indeed :)

We are up this morning, 18.50 on the ask

PM sector all gaining FRES and HOC looking particularly strong and HGM, CEY, AAZ moving higher.

Q3 2018 Production and Operations review

28% year-on-year increase in total production for YTD Q3 2018 to 61,761 GEOs and net cash of $2.8 million

Overview

Continued improvement in total production in Q3 2018 expressed as gold equivalent ounces ("GEOs") with a 28 per cent. quarter-on-quarter and a 38 per cent. year-on-year ("y-o-y") increase to 24,412 GEOs

28% y-o-y increase in YTD Q3 2018 total production to 61,761 GEOs

Net cash of $2.8 million at end of September 2018 with only debt being the Pasha Bank low cost refinancing loan

As announced on 19 September 2018, an interim dividend of US$0.03 per share will be paid gross in respect of the year ending 31 December 2018 to shareholders on 8 November 2018

Anglo Asian CEO Reza Vaziri commented: "This has been another excellent quarter for Anglo Asian as copper production restarted from the flotation plant following the commissioning of the second crusher line. Quarter three production showed strong year-on-year growth of 38 per cent. to 24,412 gold equivalent ounces. Given the strong production in the year so far, I am expecting production for the full year to be at the upper end of our guidance.

"The Company's increasing production continues to strengthen our balance sheet and I am again pleased to say that the Company moved into having net cash of $2.8 million at the end of September. This is an exciting time for Anglo Asian as we prepare to pay our maiden dividend in November 2018."

Production Overview

Q3 2018
· 38% y-o-y increase in total production to 24,412 GEOs (Q3 2017: 17,714 ounces)
· 47% y-o-y increase in gold production to 21,318 ounces (Q3 2017: 14,468 ounces):
o 18,874 ounces contained within gold doré
o 7 ounces from SART processing
o 2,437 ounces from flotation

Copper production totalled 470 tonnes (Q3 2017: 550 tonnes):
o 81 tonnes from SART processing
o 389 tonnes from flotation processing

Silver production totalled 59,346 ounces (Q3 2017: 40,288 ounces):
o 7,416 ounces contained within gold doré
o 17,357 ounces from SART processing
o 34,573 ounces from flotation

YTD Q3 2018
28% y-o-y increase in total production to 61,761 GEOs (YTD Q3 2017: 48,275 GEOs)
45% y-o-y increase in gold production to 54,573 ounces (YTD Q3 2017: 37,686 ounces)
Copper production totalled 1,057 tonnes (YTD Q3 2017: 1,872 tonnes)
Silver production totalled 144,362 ounces (YTD Q3 2017: 125,375 ounces)
Forecast production for FY 2018 now at upper end of previous guidance of between 78,000 to 84,000 GEOs

Sales
Q3 2018 gold bullion sales of 18,637 ounces at an average of $1,216 per ounce (Q2 2018 gold bullion sales of 10,822 ounces at an average of $1,307 per ounce)

Q3 2018 copper concentrate shipments to the customer totalled 1,557 dry metric tonnes ("dmt") with a sales value of $3.4 million (excluding Government of Azerbaijan profit share) (Q2 2018: 1,736 dmt with a sales value of $4.2 million)

Things must be bad if people are prepared to pay 2 months highs for platinum! Palladium was about $10 off it's 52 week high at one point earlier. Not sure if this drum is loud enough... BANG BANG BANG

Resignation of Non-Executive Director

Avingtrans plc, which designs, manufactures and supplies critical components, modules, systems and associated services to the energy, medical and industrial sectors, announces that Ewan Lloyd-Baker, Non-Executive Director, has tendered his resignation and will leave the Group with effect from 30 November 2018.

Ewan became a Non-Executive Director following the acquisition of the Hayward Tyler Group by Avingtrans in September 2017. Having overseen the successful handover he now wishes to pursue other interests.

Ewan Lloyd-Baker commented: "I am pleased that in Avingtrans, the Hayward Tyler Group has found a supportive owner that is dedicated to investing in it and creating long term value for its shareholders. I am sure they will continue to make positive steps in this regard."

Roger McDowell, Chairman of Avingtrans, commented: "I'd like to thank Ewan for his support during the transition of the Hayward Tyler Group into Avingtrans and on behalf of the Board, wish him well for the future."

Sounds like we are all on the same path to victory (or despair)

That's a fitting comparison utrecht_00! I certainly don't feel as comfortable elsewhere as I do here and have adjusted accordingly today.

Platinum up 844
Palladium up 1085

Rhodium must surely be due a bounce? $3000 by Friday lol

I doubt it's CPI related but I agree US Treasury yields are a leading indicator and this is a pivotal moment.

We saw a major US stock market correction yesterday and worse today with investors rightly fleeing riskier stocks and also the safe tech stocks for gold and precious metal exposure. Prices are rallying in tandem with Treasury prices because of warnings from the IMF over global growth and financial stability, the growing threat of tariffs and protectionist agendas as the trade war intensifies between the US and a host of competitors.

Rate rises aren't in any doubt as rising inflation will keep the Fed hiking interest rates at its current once-a-quarter pace until the middle of 2019 as the outlook for the U.S. economy remains strong. I think the markets were long overdue a correction. Further out I think we will see rate rises come undone as growth falters but that will be in the latter half of 2019.

Lovely bounce today! Strongest PM stock in my pf.

Didn't get the lowest buy but sub 80p was a gift this morning. Wasn't around for long..

Assuming the market sell off is a reactionary event linked to US bond yields rather than any major confidence crisis I'd look for renewed interest in the lead up to Christmas. Results announced this week read very well and considering the historic value of this company based on it's revenue and earnings potential then with how it is progressing we should be moving towards 52 week highs.

Trading results were SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD of the prior year and also slightly ahead of current market expectations.

Group revenue up more than 50% to £32 million. Gross margins continuing at 80%.

Operating profit increased by 30% to over £5 million

Annually, pre-contracted recurring revenues now total over 55% of total revenue (£17 million)

Strong sales order intake with the order book at over £7 million (2017: £5.79 million) by end of year

Strong cash-backed balance sheet of £6.45 million (2017: £6.18 million). This balance was after the payment in the year of £1.67 million in dividends and after a net outflow of £2.64 million, associated with the acquisition.

All Sanderson businesses traded strongly in the second half year with the highlights being the performance of the Digital Retail business which grew at over 20%.

Company buy back right about now wouldn't go amiss but until such time I'll do my bit

2x lots at 16.17 and 16.5

Markets are just as volatile today but we are witnessing gold and silver stocks bounce, FRES over 6%, HOC not too far behind, CEY climbing also. Really bizarre intraday movements. SLP even cheaper today!

Even rhodium was caught in the cross-hairs recently dropping off recent highs. Oil prices down 2% today. Markets look shaky as US bond yields continue to upset markets and compounded with the ever present 'trade war' concerns of lower growth and higher tariffs. Bond movements are an issue as fears over when the Fed will increase rates are expected to increase with the liklihood of additional rate rises beyond December. The yield on the benchmark United States 10-year note rose to 3.214% after reaching a seven-year high of 3.261% the day before, while the United States 30-Year Treasury bond was at 3.384%, not far from a four-year peak of 3.44%. As you say palladium is holding it's ground better than most other precious metals creeping up in recent weeks.

I'm surprised we haven't seen precious metals rally already with the tech stocks beginning to tumble. When investors lose confidence in the stock market, generally as a result of the wider macro-economic picture (aka US v China trade war) funds are diverted to gold and bonds. We are on the verge of finding out whether US rates at current levels are sustainable and whether they can continue to raise in the current climate.

Aguila, "Would you invest in a well ran explorer in Syria or Yemen? Head in the sand for now then, you never know, aliens might appear and fund La India through to production." was also followed up with "And by drawing on Syria / Yemen I specifically said would you invest in those countries? I didn't say the violence was anywhere near as bad."
So to repeat "nobody is claiming a comparison in terms of people killed or displaced, rather the will to fund a mine in the country".

You wrote "Private equity funds, gold stream providers will provide money to finance the mine. Private equity debt funds can provide debt to finance a BFS. See Cardinal Resources US$30M debt from Sprott Finance."

The actual figure was a lower US$25M to fund Ghana based Nambini project to PFS and later DFS, Ghana boasting major producers such as Newmont,Gold Fields, AngloGold Ashanti, IAMGOLD Corp, Golden Star Resources and 20 other majors across the mining industry. Sprott Finance fund similar projects at this stage but the comparison is quite a hollow one considering the points raised previously about perceived risks in Nicaragua. The Nicaraguan government are mining friendly. But they also endorse mass killing of protesters. I doubt there have been similar levels of investment in the Nicaraguan mining sector recently.

I agree there is no point in issuing equity at these levels but I'm not convinced funding via debt / bonds will be forthcoming in the near term. All the warning signs are there that the situation in Nicaragua will worsen. Nobody is talking about the government taking an anti-mining stance but I wonder if resistance on a local stage is stronger now given government links to permits and the 'corporate greed machine'.

Producers like B2gold already established in the country are diversifying away from Nicaragua, their annual gold sales from Nicaragua were around 64koz vs 410koz from their other producing mines in Mali, Namibia and Philippines. They fall into the category of self-funding producers, like Randgold and Fresnillo so whilst they operate in risky jurisdictions they ultimately have more control, as cash-flow from other operations can be used as leverage for taking on debt.

I very much doubt La India mine will be built in 3 years even assuming CNR are able to acquire financing for the DFS and the remaining land in 2019 going by past experiences here (2010-present). There's plenty more hurdles to jump through and I'm still not convinced Mark Child wants to take this through to production. KEFI who have been seeking finance for their Tuli Kapi mine since 2016 are only now in the final stages having agreed project level funding and should move to mine construction in H119 with the commissioning and ramp up in about 12-18 months.

I would imagine interested parties have differing levels of 'acceptable risk' and we haven't quite reached a point where the big players are willing to take a position at this table yet. The good news is that funding is in place for construction to begin early in 2019 and the market values KEFI at just 25% of the current NPV of it's subsidiary holding Tulu Kapi Gold Mines Share Company (TKGM). That essentially KEFI's 40% interest in the G&M holding based in Saudi Arabia carries no value at this time.

With Tulu Kapi heading towards production around the middle of 2020 much of the risks that are present today will be removed or considerably reduced. I can't speak for the price of gold but even if we use worst case AISC of $1000/oz including paper losses for depreciation and amortisation and assume gold is where it is today, that's $200/oz net to TKGM. Once they are producing 140koz per annum, it's about 400 ounces per day (assuming 350 working days each year).

To put that in perspective 400 ounces per day is $480,000 revenue and after ALL costs including leasing and financing charges around $80,000 net profit each day.

Of course TKGM are not making $28 million per annum net profit yet and it will be two years or more until they do but the path to achieving this is significantly derisked at this point. When they are in production KEFI's (worst-case) 50.1% holding will be worth considerably more than £10.6m ($14m) market value ascribed to it today.

ANS Mining Share Company has already signed the binding Project Equity Investment Agreement for its subscription of new equity capital into Tulu Kapi Gold Mines Limited ("TKGM") for a minimum of US$30 million, which would earn an interest in TKGM of 23%. ANS may invest further funds (up to $38 million in total) to increase its interest by another 6%
although KEFI will remain the majority shareholder of TKGM. I think when this later event happens we will see a significant rerate.

$30m (lowest case) for 23% of TKGM values KEFI's 56.1% holding at $73m (£55.5m)
$38m for 6% of TKGM values KEFI's 50.1% holding at $317m (£241m)

We can see this additional demand for equity significantly boosts the value of TKGM. The final aggregate subscription amount of up to US$38 million will be set by TKGM upon the receipt of all remaining Government and other financier approvals. And what should give shareholders confidence is that ANS has confirmed to KEFI that institutional (banks and insurance companies) demand has exceeded this enlarged US$38 million figure. So assuming the two initial hurdles of receiving the first $9 million for community resettlement compensation and then the subsequent $21-30 million are cleared in the first half of 2019 we have the potential for KEFI to appreciate in value once more.

Looks like a few big sells amid a stream of smaller trades.

Recent articles highlight the usual trends and bad news for the industry in South Africa. Risks here don't appear to have changed so looks like a decent time to buy on the dip

http://www.miningweekly.com/article/international-investment-in-south-africas-mining-industry-lagging-2018-10-04

https://www.wsj.com/articles/south-africa-gold-mining-companies-pay-high-price-to-keep-digging-1538920800

Yes CEY announced a downgrade and sure enough a deserved fall. I'm sure you saw that coming though...

The share price fell 16% falling throughout the day from a 1 month high having risen 30% off it's recent low. No doubt any dummy who bought at the peak, read the update and didn't sell at any point in the day deserves to be 16% down... which is what you seem to be inferring people may have actually done. I'll let you think about that...

"CNR down 16% YTD" from January 2018 yes meanwhile AAZ is up 120% YTD but you couldn't be bothered to mention that?

Most people have an a