RE: The risks of a successful Brexit11 Sep 2018 18:36
uncertain - not a shareholder here but interested in your discussion. CEY are almost certainly selling their gold priced in US$ I would have thought but if the GB£ were to theoretically jump 10% against the US$ it would likely do similar against the EGY£ too.
I think we're all agreed it wouldn't affect the pricing of gold bullion sales nor costs. Assuming the market cap and therefore share price doesn't react then all that has happened is the dollar valued assets held and income being generated devalues against the market value here priced in GB£
The company's valuation on paper will look more expensive compared to it's assets but then again it already looks cheap given the fall commodity miners have suffered this past year and in particular the last couple of months.
BREXIT isn't suffocating the miners right now. It's the strength of the US$ first and foremost and the methods being used by the US to achieve these results using tariffs, encouraging emerging market weakness and fear of contagion dampening economics growth plus the continuing rise in US rates. The USD will weaken as rates rise causing the deficit to expand faster than new economic growth can be created. Think about it for a second, unemployment is already near record lows, wage inflation for the vast majority is flat but the privileged few are benefiting. Tariffs are not good for anyone and most economists agree tariffs are bad for global trade in general. What will occur is inflation of goods imported will rise, rates will rise in tandem and markets will ultimately have another crisis of confidence in the US ability to repay debts. But I don't suppose they will be the only economic power to suffer, the EU could be tested like back in 2011 on fears of debt default again. Where the GB£ will sit in comparable value I wouldn't like to guess but gold and silver to an extent should rally once confidence begins to wane in the US$.