Member Info for the_shareminator

ragnar, Visitor - thank you for sharing!

Rhodium at 10 year highs now. It should be of interest to note Johnson Matthey reported gross demand for Rhodium will reach record levels this year, primarily as a result of new Chinese legislation.

- "Some cities and provinces will start to implement China 6 legislation this year, ahead of its nationwide application which is officially scheduled to take place between 2020 (China 6a) and 2023 (China 6b, including RDE testing). Meeting China 6 standards will involve significantly higher palladium and rhodium loadings compared to current China 5 systems."

This is happening from July 2019.

Their general reading of where the market is heading has been conservative in the past and they are predicting an overall net increase in supplies as a result of recycling. Whether these figures are accurate remains to be seen but judging by the price action I very much doubt it to be the case. Underlying demand is increasing and will continue to do so. There is uncertainty about the rate of this demand given the outlook for the auto-industry but the charts point to sustained demand in the medium term.

Rhodium Summary p27
http://www.platinum.matthey.com/documents/new-item/pgm%20market%20reports/pgm_market_report_may_19.pdf

Looking weak now. Almost 25% off since their last quarterly update. Like the poster below, I still believe losses are being incurred and without a rise in the price of copper that will continue to be the case

mrtibbles - better the devil you know. As bad as Trumps rhetoric and political acumen is, he will be voted out at some point. And we need US influence and support when it comes to the global stage in facing down perceived threats.

@Peer_is_amazing: How on earth can you say the market cap is too low?

Are you forgetting how the company acquired the 25m shares in ValOre and 3 million Canadian dollars?

They just gave away their only asset worth a dime. Your share in ValOre will be repeatedly diluted away to help further project development with no guarantees of return for many years. What is left is a measly sum of cash with which to advance a very early stage project. There are no resource estimates to hand but there is a lot of hearsay on this chatboard. In my opinion if you want exposure to the Vanadium price from an established producer with huge growth forecasts in the coming years then plonk your money in BMN and rid yourself of this crappy shell that is not fit for purpose.

Beat me to it!

Rhodium may be reacting to the rare earth tariff news from earlier in the week. Palladium and platinum have recovered a little this week as US data comes in below expectations. I have more money tied up in gold producers at the moment (this is the only Pt and Pd producer I hold) however I think it's way off fair value now. The next update could send this north of 35p and I think most people who are on the sidelines will look to buyback when they see how much cash the company have generated (in comparison to the past two quarters).

Might be wrong. Might have to wait another six months or more before 35p comes around again lol

TornadoTony, thank you for coming back to me.

Indeed the LOM update indicated AISC for 2019 are going to rise beyond the $800-$850/oz estimate but production guidance (110-125koz au) for the remainder of the year is unchanged. .

"The current draft LoM plan, awaiting finalisation, indicates that in the upcoming 3 years (2020-2022) the Company is able to achieve production of 130,000-145,000oz per year at a targeted AISC of US$800/oz. The Company is pleased to report that the early estimates from the LoM plan showed a significant improvement on production levels and lowering cost base of the mine."

You may have a point with regard to grades and dilution. I assume you were reading into the statement made in the Q418 update: "Good start to operations in 2019 with production in January on track to produce circa 10,000oz".

According to their forecasts they were on track to produce 10,000 ounces in January but that doesn't necessarily mean grades worsened as the quarter progressed. In Q418 the grade was 1.91g/t and in Q119 2.46 g/t. In January when they said they were on track to produce 10,000 ounces they may well have had an unusual spike in grades followed by a period (of less than two months) of lower than forecast grades. The dilution of the ore was according to the company due to "historical artisanal workings" which were greater than forecast. Also something you forgot to mention, there was " lower than expected plant throughput" during the quarter. It's difficult to know how much ore was processed in February and March but the combined production came out at approximately 14-15koz as far as we know.

Q1 plant throughput was reduced due to "limited availability of the softer oxide ore to blend with the harder fresh ore, as well as plant availability" Further to this there was mining dilution and ore loss as result of their focus on "rehabilitation and mining volumes in Q4 2018 and early 2019"

" In addition we should note certain areas of higher grade ore and oxide ore that were anticipated to be processed in Q1 (but weren't due to the lower mining volumes) have yet to be processed. All these issues (barring historical artisanal mining) have been addressed and the company are "in the process of implementing additional procedures and geological checks around the mining of ore, which already appears to be having a positive impact on the grades delivered to the ROM.

In regard to concerns about the pit modelling and geological work not having picked up dilution voids I think it's safe to say it's impossible for any company to measure the exact effect artisanal work may have had on dilution. Being near surface and displaying shoots of high grade ore it's not an exact science until you process the ore however I am sure as we go deeper the effects of dilution will rapidly diminish and grades will rise in line with the 2.8g/t - 3g/t we expect.

After two years lost to a state of emergency in Ethiopia, a new political order has emerged that has allowed KEFI to progress Tulu Kapi to the point of development. All federal government consents have now been received (including from the National Bank of Ethiopia, Ethiopia’s central bank). This now allows KEFI to trigger the first equity instalment of US$11.4m from its Ethiopian partners into the project, which will fund detailed engineering & procurement (including long lead items), allow community resettlement and defer debt funding until FY20. Importantly, however, it also enables the infrastructure finance bond programme to proceed, such that, on the current timeline, commissioning of the plant is anticipated to start by end-2020, with first gold in April 2021 and full production by mid-2021.

The research posted on this board is indicative of the quality of the assets Bushveld hold! Makes for good reading this morning, thanks for sharing!

Can we have a little more calm from our newest arrivals and some more collective research and discussion please. Clearly momentum is with us now as we await further news. Let's stay focused on the long term value picture.

A very important update for the company however the sell off this afternoon isn't surprising given it's the first real positive news we have had in months. The volumes have been impressive though and I expect many buying will be holding for further key milestones to be achieved. This is just the beginning of a long overdue correction and further newsflow will be kind to the share price.

bonker I agree it will happen, just not yet

Looking good here anyway! Patience beginning to be rewarded. What was your lowest purchase?

Gold is approaching a key resistance level now. Nice to see buying at 57p again so soon after the little shake. US economy expected to slow in the second half and possibly a rate cut. All this should see gold move beyond $1360 level in H219.

TSG will be trading above 60p in the coming months.

"It is unlikely that Q3 cash flow would generate much above costs."

Can you elaborate please. I believe the company are still forecasting 29-33koz averaged over each of the next three quarters. Costs are expected to be in the range of $850-900/oz possibly a little higher.

There is no reason to assume Q3 will be breakeven. Last year rainfall was the heaviest in over a decade and that caused major structural damage to the mine. It took out a bridge even. There shouldn't be a repeat this year but the seasonal rain will undoubtedly cause some minor disruption.

I'm expecting upper end of 27-30koz this quarter which might end up being conservative but even so costs around $900-950/oz. The following quarter should be much the same as we progress with mining the higher grade ore with higher costs accounting for inventory build up. Q4 should be a bumper quarter of 32-35koz with rising grades and the end of the rainy season easing AISC to $800-850/oz but much depends on when the second mill comes online. I think next year we are heading towards annual costs in the $775-850/oz range. Anyway I wanted to point out quarterly gross profits are likely to be $10m this quarter, $8m next quarter (assuming some inventory build up) and $14m in the fourth quarter using the conservative worst case for costs and production above.

If you assume the top end figures (from what is a conservative case) then gross profit is Q2: $12m, Q3: $9.5m and Q4: $18m.

"The Gonka stripping is likely to cost around $12M"
I haven't looked through the annual report but is there really going to be quarterly stripping costs of $12m? I would be concerned if that were the case.

Hello all, bought my first lot here today. Waited a long time to buy but feel it won't fall any lower now. Gold stocks are due to come out of hibernation. Trump doesn't know when to keep his big trap shut which is why I expect the gold price to continue marching on. Gla

Thank you for sharing your analysis Tony.

I think it's a useful comparison to see where the company was (709koz reserves, $41M cash, $61M debt at 34p) but the reserves, cash and debt figures alone won't explain why we are valued at just 13p today. I think a lot has to do with risk but let me state this is perceived risk. A lot of value destruction has to be attributed to mine issues, management failures, taking on new loans, the approaching rainy season and the outside chance we will need additional funds to see us through the rainy season. These are all risks and cumulatively they have weighed on the share price for the better part of a year. By the way, I don't believe the company will need additional funds but until the update comes the market may be cautious. Last year the rainfall was 1018mm well above the 698mm average. It's too early to say what the rainfall will be like this year but the company will definitely be prepared for issues.

Dugbe remains hard to value but a cash-for-share JV agreement to further exploration there would add value to the share price, derisking the prospect and perhaps ensuring a quicker route to mine financing.

Like you I am expecting the company will announce a LoM will increase when the reserves are updated but I wouldn't expect the share price to bounce back to 19p until we get the next quarterly operational update detailing production, costs, cash, debt and any issues.

When the quarterly updates start yielding positive results I believe the market will begin to be forward looking here and ascribe value based on the confidence of achieving production targets.

I agree with your statement "we really need that LoM and reserve and resource additions". We need to see that despite the problems the company has faced, it is now delivering and working towards derisking the liquid asset position and the profitability issues we have faced. I believe they are on track and as shrewd investors we have an opportunity to take advantage of what I believe to be an unjustifiably weak share price that will bounce higher on the next update. BMN fell to 19p last month before jumping to 33p in a couple of trading sessions.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/221308/pure-gold-mining-sees-huge-exploration-upside-at-madsen-as-it-begins-new-exploration-program-221308.html

This looks to be a good site to track rainfall over Yanfolia and is updated daily.

https://onisdin.info/en/weather-and-climate/recent-rainfall

GB - Indeed but I wonder if the news reported on 20th sparked fears and is the reason for the drop which began on 23rd. It may be that some shareholders came across the news and sold. I'm not saying it was the right thing to do but I am providing a possible reason for weakness in the past week.

Tornadotony - that is encouraging to learn and should inspire confidence here

Yes for a few minutes it looked shaky but on reading the update and putting it into context it didn't warrant a 15% drop.

It goes to show how illiquid this share is moving down and up again on such low volumes.

And this illustrates nicely why the fund would the terms they did to offload their stake in the company. It's little to do with actual value and more to do with an orderly exit. In the end both the fund and company shareholders benefit.

I took the opportunity to grab more at 49.8 earlier. The shares will move up later this year. Today's news matters not (the past 3 years actually saw increases rather than a net decrease in ore).

The bigger picture is what we should focus on :)

Good overview in this PDF download. Bamako of course is only one area and being the capital will be reported on more often than others (including our mine).
https://reliefweb.int/report/mali/acaps-briefing-note-bamako-floods-23-may-2019