Member Info for the_shareminator

What exactly do you think Harry has done that someone else in his place wouldn't have? It's very easy to blame the head man but if you have genuine concerns about something this is the place to air your thoughts.

Tulu Kapi Gold Project is moving ahead despite the delay in receiving the first equity instalment of $11.4 million. The updated independent security report has been arranged to be provided in August 2019
Since the Prime Ministerial go-ahead for the Project, as announced on 5 March 2019, the final federal policy consent was received from the Ethiopian central bank, as reported in the announcement of 6 June 2019.

We've heard recently Government administration has been expanded at local level to support Tulu Kapi with 'High-level' committees formed to expedite the development of the sector. Government work programmes are ongoing in the Tulu Kapi district for the road and power connections and there were some 300 unemployed locals recruited recently to aid in the relocation of the community.
Additionally, the Company's independent experts have been mobilised to update their assessments of security and community readiness as outlined in the Company's announcement on 28 June 2019.

TKGM projected economic statistics have improved markedly with the increased gold price. Spot gold is currently $1,525/oz and uptrend looks likely to continue.

Q2 2019 Operational Update (Wed, 10th Jul 2019)
NPV of KEFI's 45% interest at gold price of $1,300/oz (8% discount rate)
- £41 million (US$52 million) at start of construction

NPV of TKGM at gold price of $1,400/oz (8% discount rate)
- £130 million (US$165 million) at start of construction
- £196 million (US$249 million) at start of production

NPV of KEFI's 45% interest at gold price of $1,400/oz (8% discount rate)
- £59 million (US$74 million) at start of construction (see 28/06 update)
- £88 million (US$112 million) at start of production

These NPV estimates do not subscribe any value to underground deposits or exploration assets.

TKGM projected economic statistics have improved markedly with the increased gold price. Spot gold is currently $1,525/oz and uptrend looks likely to continue.Q2 2019 Operational Update (Wed, 10th Jul 2019)NPV of KEFI's 45% interest at gold price of $1,300/oz (8% discount rate) - £41 million (US$52 million) at start of constructionNPV of TKGM at gold price of $1,400/oz (8% discount rate)- £130 million (US$165 million) at start of construction - £196 million (US$249 million) at start of productionNPV of KEFI's 45% interest at gold price of $1,400/oz (8% discount rate)- £59 million (US$74 million) at start of construction (see 28/06 update)- £88 million (US$112 million) at start of production These NPV estimates do not subscribe any value to underground deposits or exploration assets.

https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/gold-prices-mark-fresh-6year-highs-plunging-yields-safehaven-demand-support-1953739

NotAmused - KEFI has a majority interest in the Tulu Kapi project of which the government of Ethiopia is a partner. The Ethiopian Government funds of $20 million (Ethiopian Birr equivalent) have already begun to be "deployed for off-site infrastructure in the Tulu Kapi district" see the announcement of 24 June 2019.

Didn't expect this either :)

We knew 28-29p before results was cheap and odds were it would push new hights but this is quite unexpected. You can see my little limit order of 2190 shares triggered at around 39.675, well above the bid. I expect this afternoon a larger order of 40p or more will appear.

There was a time back in 2016 when the share price was 0.07/8p and I held more than 500k shares. Those with more patience have done exceedingly well!

40p already! Time to treat the girlfriend ;)

Buy orders set above the ASK at 1.07, with live ASK at 1.06 earlier not filled. Same thing again this afternoon 1.10 order not filled. Think I'll just grab them while I can rather than block buy in specific quantities. Nice opportunity wasted thanks to useless brokers

The worst (in terms of an economic slump) is yet to come I think and that will reward anyone holding gold or stocks in gold producers. The media in 2010/11 gradually focused all attention on fears the European sovereign debt crisis would spread to the weakened banking sector. Today the media is so focused on BREXIT that the masses are completely unaware all indicators (commodity prices, interest rates, bond yields etc) point to certain recessionary conditions. In the past 7-8 years all that has been achieved is improved liquidity among the banking sector. At the same time national debts have been allowed to balloon under false IBL rate conditions, effectively near 0% rates. There is very little the FED or BoE have left in the tank. Rates will ease, currency devaluation will intensify, tariffs between the US and China look set to continue. All reasons to buy profitable gold producers like SHG

Dividend in the account today. Ex div less than a month ago. Quicker than most gold producers in turn around. Made a lot more since buying ex-div of course thanks to the surging gold price. I see CEY and HGM making steady gains day after day now, took a while for them to wake but they are beginning to catch up. Surprised there hasn't been a push to take out £1 given gold is trading above $1500/oz

Probably just some nervous pi's without a clue. Real news still to come

My last sell was 222 shares at 5.79 on the 19th July. Copper has fallen away rather quickly in the past week or two and I while it should bounce off support soon I can only see it falling further in the coming months.

Not many predicted China's move in response to recent tariffs, allowing the yuan to fall below 7 per dollar for the first time in over decade! Trump will continue to ratchet up tariffs in the months ahead, just because he can. The PBOC will retaliate in kind.

"With additional tariffs on the way, the PBOC is likely to come up with more easing to support growth," said Frances Cheung, head of macro strategy, Asia, at Westpac in Singapore.

https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/china-lets-yuan-slump-past-7-per-dollar-for-first-time-in-over-decade-as-trade-war-escalates-1945119

Goldenbull is spot on. 26-30p coming this quarter

Lovely to see the share price climbing today. Gold price is only going to continue higher with Trump in charge.

Think you all need a little exposure to gold producers. SHG, TSG, PAF and HUM pushing recent highs and expected to continue as the gold price creeps higher. RRE is my only oil play and my last top up is now underwater however I'm confident this will continue moving higher.

Well they proved doubters (myself included) wrong! Excellent finish to the financial year.

· Record ounce production of 21,789 4E PGM ounces in Q4, to achieve a record of 72,090 ounces for FY2019;
· SDO PGM plant recoveries improved 12% to 54%, boosting ounce production;
· Net revenue increased 10% to $20.2 million;
· Group EBITDA improved 14% to $9.3 million in Q4;
· Group cash costs decreased 21% to $496/ounce;
· Third MF2 module of Project Echo commissioned at Mooinooi in Q4;
· Commissioning of Lesedi chrome section commenced in Q4; and
· Significant safety milestones achieved at Lesedi, reaching eight years Lost Time Injury (LTI) free, and Tweefontein and Doornbosch operations both reaching seven years LTI-free during the quarter.

update 28th June

I'm not sure if we will touch 50p in 2019. Another 12 months perhaps. Keep buying the dips!

Regarding the news from the 16th July, MobilityOne Limited - Disposal of MobilityOne South Asia Sdn Bhd I think it's the right decision. These ventures are purely for tax relief purposes but now the company revenues are so large, even with tiny net profit margins they look very attractive minus this subsidiary. Net cash position coming and net profits of £2M possibly. Not expecting fireworks in Spetmeber when the HY results are due but definitely excited for next summer.

With regards funding, I recommend rereading recent updates.

KEFI announced their security and private-sector partner ANS are going to reassess the security following a suspected coup attempt that took place a few weeks ago. This didn't have a direct impact but the security concerns have likely caused some parties to insist on new reports being necessary. The funding procedures have therefore been delayed by about 4-6 weeks from what I can gather, however it isn't likely to impact the mine development schedule. See the update from the 28th June.

From the same update ANS confirmed the first instalment of US$11.4 million is due to be released immediately following receipt of the report. I suspect that will happen next month but perhaps the fund transfer will creep into September. The $11.4m is part of the $38m ANS agreed to take a 33% stake in the project. It has "assembled" the entire sum according to the update. Once the security report is delivered, the first instalment goes towards community resettlement and early development tasks which according to KEFI will be in September 2019 and expected to complete sometime in November 2019.

The conditions precedent for closing the Project equity instalment were in hand but the requirement for an updated report by independent experts as regards security, community and local government readiness is a new development. TKGM is therefore not yet fully funded however all partners and stakeholders are in place ready to fund the mine development. Ethiopian Government Project equity of $20 million has started being deployed for off-site infrastructure in the Tulu Kapi district, as set out in the announcement of 24 June 2019. The mandated US$160 million bond financing awaits the triggering of the balance of its compliance procedures and their associated costs, with full Project finance to close after initial development work has been funded with Project equity probably in 2020. TKGM will have received about $60m from ANS and the govt before this amount becomes due.

Cora is an interesting explorer and I have exposure to it through HUM however it's a long way from production unless it comes to a JV deal or HUM buy them out. KEFI will be in production sometime in H2 2021 and at current gold prices throwing off multiples of the KEFI market cap in free cash and that's just from early open pit production.

Lastly KEFI have drawndown $900k of a $4 milllion convertible (2p) loan facility, $450k of which was converted to shares at 2p when the share price was trading far below the conversion price. I expect further drawdowns in the coming year as of course KEFI require working capital. The share price has a long way to rise back to parity with the conversion price. True value is much higher than 2p of course but it's a good start.