Alternatives to JV ( synonym - shafted)9 Nov 2019 15:58
Let us consider 2 differing scenarios;
1) On first gas, end '21, start '22, EBITDA is c$125M ( Thomas theT posted last Thu 14.51, in reply to Q that EBITDA net to SOU at 23.4% would be $30M, ), so net to SOU at 23.4 % c $30M., and would be c$18.5M at 14.4%. No taxation, . A 1p divi pa needs $13M ( £10M at 1,30 ER, , ), and 2p $26M. A 1p divi would probably men a 20p sp ( 5%).
In meanwhile, available funds have been used, not only for horizontal wells at TE5,6,7, to increase maintain and increase production levels, but additional wells in Annoule, and SM. 2 new discoveries with fracked rates each of above 40K cfd., another 1p divi pa looming , so sp reflects this and is 40p. Hallelujah.
All the above, but done without JV partner, and hence, sp is 40p and 80p. Now, #dreamsindesert being realised.
2) JV produces 1st gas and sp 20p, and EBITDA $30M to SOU. Additional wells drilled are dusters, and future exploration abandoned. JV future involvement being discussed, and sp falls as doubts remain over direction and sustainability.
No JV, SOU has 47.5 WI, and paying 2p divi, 40p, sp, but abandons future exploration after dusters, and lets further exploration license lapse, or tries to sell them, including SM and Annoule, With the uncertainty sp falls to 25p, but CEO confident that divi is safe, and will be increased with greater output.
Of course, one of the problems the more astute will have noticed, in in the absence of no JV, show us the money.
We know one thing for certain. An unnamed party has offered c$112M for a half of SOU's 47.5%. So we know it has value, and this company is an investment and management company, not an exploration or producer, so since is not a producer, will have to employ senior staff to run the JV. Since SOU has failed in exploring, it must be safe to assume that a new team will replace the current incompetent BOD. This has a problem if Exploration is correct is his assumption that the JV is a Luca family business ( his bro. ) and will explain why The Failure recommends since he will still keep his snout in the trough, but probably as CFO. My point therefore, is that a new CEO, an OnG person, with likely EBITDA of $125Mpa, will be able to fund 1st gas, and exploration from the Money Market, and involvement from SCHL and OGIF. Especially the later, since it will still retain 25% of 47.5%, instead of 25% of 23.4, and probably 14,4%.
I'm sure my assessment is riddled with problems, but plse have constructive criticism and show me the glaring errors., esp jobbs, SO, KTF. Thnx.
I urge everyone to vote against this appalling deal for SH's. Ask The Chair for an EGM to oust The Failure.