As a reminder, there were 530k new shares due to be issued today so perhaps some short term profit taking at this level as they were issued at 31p and 40p.. a quick 40-60% profit, although I expect most will have gone to safe hands, who are looking at the longer term potential..
regards
T123
cambells - the holy grail for any junior explorer is 5Moz - thats Tier 1 asset country and the magic figure that provokes serious bidding wars by majors.. Condor has 2.4Moz from only 5% of its land package that it has explored (yes you all read that correctly 2.4Moz from 5 PERCENT OF ITS LAND )... So 5Moz is easily achievable. I honestly expect the total gold oz from La India and surrounding concessions to be closer to 10Moz when fully proven up. however I really don't expect CNR to be the ones to do that..
Anyway I'm off to bed now, setting my alarm early for 6.45am, I expect a lot of you will be doing the same ;-) I must admit I was tempted to sell a few shares here at 54.5p today (only 10 or 20k just to play with elsewhere) but I'm VERY glad I didn't :-)
regards,
T123
Can we just highlight one fact here - the following is an INDEPENDENT summary / target for the company (i,e not paid for or sponsored by the company or its broker in any way)..
https://www.undervalued-shares.com/reports/investment-reports/strong-junior-mining-candidate-for-a-lucrative-bid/
This price estimate concurs with many previous research notes and mining analysts e.g like this recent one from WH Ireland which put a cautious £1.30 estimate on the SP..
http://www.condorgold.com/sites/default/files/WHI%20Condor%20Gold%20research%20note%20130p%20target%20FINAL%20051120.pdf
But the difference is that the latest one is completely independent - in other words this highly respected mining analyst, completely off his own back, has compiled a 41 page report on why Condor gold is worth at least £1.50 as a takeover target within, he estimates, 12-18 months..
I would just like to mention one other point - as another poster and I were discussing today (before we knew about this report) we were already calling out £1.25-£1.50 level as a genuine target for the SP here.. My point being that for too long the posters here have been ignored / derided as rampers, dreamers, pump/dumpers, and just general idiots for thinking this is worth 3 x its current SP.. (even with gold at current prices, never mind $2000+)
With further news due here, I think the author of this research note has timed it to perfection for his readers.. i must admit to being happy to be locked and loaded with 500k shares here just waiting..
regards
T123
As a reminder, around 530k new warrant shares being issued tomorrow at a price of 31p to 40p per share.. hope the holders dont decide to take a quick profit by selling them all onto the market at 54p! Still with good volumes here I think they could be absorbed fairly easily..
And if the SP stays above 55p for ten days in a row, it also triggers a further share buy in from existing directors etc..
regards,
T123
ddd - appreciate your thoughts - I think the other benefit to come out of a toll mill deal SP rerate to that kind of range, is that it would vastly reduce any required dilution to fund the equity portion of the financing - as a reminder for any newbies here, previously MC has said to build a smaller plant to process high grade ore, it would take $50M CAPEX at 70/30 debt to equity - so the equity raise would be $15M or so.. with the SP at say £1 at that point instead of 50p, it makes the raise much less dilutive.. We are looking at June this year for that kind of deal to be announced, so plenty of time for a toll mill deal to be agreed and start producing cash flow for CNR at that point..
A toll deal would take about $2M CAPEX to fund to produce about $20M fcf per year.. a huge win to change an explorer like CNR into a junior gold producer..
regards
T123
ISAP - Yes Ive been looking again tis am at possible CNR SP valuations based on a 40koz pa, 50/50 profit sharing toll mill deal with Calibre worth $20M of free cashflow to CNR being announced.... With 120M shares in issue, EPS of 17cents and a p/e ratio of 10, that puts the SP into the £1.25-£1.30 range.. but given that Condor projects to be producing 75koz next year.. the growth here in 12-18 months should be phenomenal..
So thats my current short term price target - £1.25.. and that allows for a few warrants being exercised as well as we approach 7th February..
regards,
T123
AF - Yes a Mestiza drilling RNS is overdue, but I cant see that alone having this effect, feels like something bigger..
Can sell 110k for full bid... There is incredible demand for shares here.. Feels like a 60p move again at the very least.. but with the right RNS, thats more likely to be 80-90p range..
Oh and I still wont be selling at that price either!
regards,
T123
Bid still rising today 54/55 now, 55k selling for 54.3p.. up from 53.5 today, despite the largish sells coming to the market.. there is significant buying demand here today.. will Condor soar this pm? I think so! Hold tight all LTHs!
Give us an RNS this pm please Mark and CNR=BFR :-)
regards
T123
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/register/event_details/314
28th January is the next event that Mark Child CEO will be presenting at... suggest all register to hear the latest news updates..
regards
T123
Yep - this is going to blow today... 60p again anyone? The bid is steadily rising for large quantities of sells - can sell 55k at 53.5p now..
What a difference from Friday, something is brewing for definite.. Good luck to everyone trying to buy..
regards,
T123
Nice start to the week, considering last thing on Friday you were getting quoted 46p to sell... Today, with no news (allegedly) I can sell 55k for over 53p now, and the bid has been rising all day, despite some fairly chunky sells..
Theses shares are defo in demand today.. Leaky leaky me thinks.. up 15% on no positive news (YET) bodes rather well..
The problem is that CNR is pregnant with news on so many fronts, only MC and directors know what the first RNS to drop will be - but my thinking is that once the first little bundle of joy arrives, a few more brothers and sisters could arrive very shortly after :-)
There will be those who sell today on a 15% rise from last week, but I hope they are happy to miss out on the big rise to £1+.. its all just beginning to line up this year!
regards,
T123
PS For news exclusion purposes, I dont see a SOLD sign here yet either..
https://www.savonaequipment.com/en/5000-tpd-ore-processing-and-recovery-plant-p375195
Didn’t see anyone mentioning the fact that 2 Directors bought shares here yesterday? Not a huge amount but still a very good sign for the coming year..
I’m really surprised that we haven’t had Mestiza drilling news yet.. I’d like to see that start ASAP so we get the assay results back.. first La India results should be back in about 6 weeks or so.. (end of Feb MC said)..
What I also can’t believe is that the US have announced trillions more stimulus aka money printing to devalue the dollar (and other currencies worldwide will no doubt have to follow suit) but the gold price doesn’t react.. Don’t get me wrong at $1850 gold and $700 AISC, CNR is still going to make a lot of profit but to really get the interest going in the gold mining sector again, we need to be seeing 2100+ gold..
Regards,
T123
ISA - I will try to crunch some numbers properly later, but from memory La Libertad is a big mill, 6700tpd I think.. so I dont think they would be at full capacity at all even with those numbers.. it may actually allow them to give more justification to restarting the ball mill thats currently on idle if they can guarantee the ore supply from Pavon + La India... as running that ball mill costs them $40k a month if I remember right... Still one can see that Calibre projecting growth of 30% in 2021 is good for the country prospects as a whole.. they might be worth a dabble even at CAD $2.15 especially if gold price does what we think it will in 2021..
Or then again, Mako mining might want to do a toll deal instead to fill their new 1000tpd mine...
regards,
T123
https://calibremining.com/news/calibre-exceeds-high-end-of-2020-production-guidan-2115/
Calibre are really ramping up in Nicaragua for 2021..
Regards
T123
Holding long and strong thanks :-D I certainly wouldn't be selling at 44p either..
Looking like we might bounce from these levels, bid/ask spread has narrowed.. and especially if we get news on Mestiza drilling.. I'm actually very tempted to add more at these levels, before the expected news flow drops!
I felt a bit guilty after inciting all the Bitcoin chat,, but interesting to see how the bull run appears to have broken down since then.. I feel that gold and commodities have quite a bit of catching up to do at this point...
regards,
T123
Whereas gold is down $100 in 2 days!
It raises a very important question - has Gold as a safe haven become obsolete overnight? Is it just an industrial metal now?
If Bitcoin has become the de facto investment and safe haven choice for millennials savings - will the price of gold (and demand for it) just keep falling?
Has 5000 years of human history finally been superseded by advancing technology? Is gold truly just a barbarous relic now?
Or is Bitcoin simply a new fangled Tulip bubble? The answer is pretty important for everyone invested here as gold is Condors sole product.. :-0
Regards,
T123
Expecting news for commencement of infill drilling on the Mestiza vein (La India vein infill drilling was started in December, assay results expected end of Feb). We should hear of this by end of this week or early next.. In addition the geotechnical drilling for the TSF's should be almost done by now as well. The results of this will go on to shape the final engineering studies for construction beginning this year (we think end of Q2 / into Q3)..
Other news expected between now and Feb include purchase of warrants in the company by directors/major share holders. These guys are staunch holders, so while there will be a bit of dilution, they are in it for the long haul and the warrants will give useful cash injections to the company as it moves towards production...
In short, I wouldn't be selling a single share for 52p... esp as Gold looks to have resumed its bullish run up to $2000 and beyond again.. but times are tough and I suppose we could see some forced sellers taking some profits in the short term..
regards,
T123
That’s a very interesting financing example and quite similar in size (plant throughput and Capex) to Condors requirements for a 50-75koz plant. Just trying to see if there is some kind of comeback for the lenders though - I.e the land or resource is taken as security for the loan if it’s not repaid on time etc..
Fully expect an announcement like this from Condor before June this year.. EPCM contract to lycopodium to build the plant and a financing agreement with banks / gold royalty - PM streaming companies.. it’s the potential for equity dilution that the market is worrying about, but that’s going to be kept to a minimum - or could it even be Zero dilution, like this deal? That would be huge. If they can do a deal for one project, they could do it for another similar one.. Wow.
Regards
T123