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And silver below $26 as well.. anyone got any physical silver they want to sell me for $26 an ounce? No? Thought not..
CRIMEX PM prices are a joke. Inflation levels being officially reported are also a joke. Heaven forbid any central bank in the world would want to raise interest rates to combat rising inflation when their debt levels are at ridiculous levels.. it would be like turkeys voting for xmas..
Negative real rates of return and still gold is getting bashed.. how long can this continue? Fitch says gold at $1200 in 2023 - well I cant wait to buy physical at that level as well.. I may well be visiting La India to buy some gold dore bars at $1200 an ounce in 2023.. anyone fancy a jolly boys outing?
regards,
T123
Thought it was interesting that Calibre are also doing 80,000m of drilling this year.. those assay labs are going to be very busy.. and working at a reduced capacity still with Covid - perhaps thats why there are delays to getting the results so far :-(
Well I hope Ross isnt going to sell all of his remaining 4.8M on the market.. Ouch! Thats quite a hangover!
regards,
T123
Thanks - I agree of course, but imho, we usually see a fall to the placing price or close after its concluded and shares issued - as you say, if that doesnt happen this time, its a major sign of confidence.
I have watched and read with interest the twists and turns of opinions on the Land question - i.e will they/wont they get the 100% of land etc.. I just wanted to point one thing out.. In the past 10 months, Jim Mellon has invested a total of £3.6M in Condor and increased his holding from 17 million to just over 25 Million shares at an average cost (not including any fees) of 44.6p per share.
For those here who think he has invested that amount of money, while for one second being aware that a land issue is going to completely scupper this project (despite sitting as a NED on the board and no doubt has been made well aware of the thrust of the land discussions if not the minutiae) then I really think you should stop posting here and urgently email Jim to warn him what he is getting himself into.. That poor guy clearly just hasn't had the benefit of the collective wisdom of the experts on these boards. Im really getting quite worried about him and all those investment advisers he has doing DD on the project before he invested his £3.6M.. I mean I its obvious that he should be sacking all of them and appointing a few from these boards before he rapidly descends into paupery...
Ahem,
T123
Should see assay results from infill drilling on La India at the very least.. Those have been delayed for too long as it is.. and then Mestiza results should arrive later in the month/April as well.. a steady stream of good drill results surely cant hurt the SP..
In other news - Can anyone confirm whether or not the extra 9.5M placing shares have been admitted to the market today as planned? If so the SP seems to be holding up very well.. despite the gold price dip etc..
Condor Gold (AIM: CNR; TSX: COG) is pleased to announce a placing of 9,523,810 new ordinary shares in the Company of 20p each ("Placing Shares") at a price of 42p per Placing Share (the "Placing Price"), "..... " Completion of the Placing is conditional, inter alia, upon receipt of funds by close of business on 24 February 2021 and admission of the Placing Shares to trading on AIM, expected to be on or around ** 1 March 2021 **
regards,
T123
BigDog,
I came across this slide on another gold explorer companies website I was researching and I thought of you :-D haha - I was just thinking that this is EXACTLY what MC needs to produce for Condor.. I mean how hard would it be to produce this?
https://marathon-gold.com/site/uploads/2020/06/marathon-gold-timeline-june-2020-v4.jpg
regards,
T123
PS Nice to see the SP holding up well here despite the fall in gold.. lets see what Monday brings with the issue of the new shares at 42p.. will we see a short term drop down to the placing price? I do hope so.. as I will be backing up the truck.. :-)
Seingred - the processing figures for La Libertad in 2020 were as follows:
Libertad produced 71,451 ounces from 1.3M tonnes of ore processed at an average grade of 1.88 g/t Au and a 92.9% recovery rate. But Libertad actually has a max capacity of 2.2M tonnes per year.. So they have almost 1M tonnes of spare capacity there.. Their ave grade is 1.88g/t - La India ore would be 2-3x that grade, so much lower costs.. (currently AISC of over $1000 an oz at La Libertad).
So I wouldnt write off the economics of a deal just yet..
regards
T123
https://www.calibremining.com/news/calibre-mining-announces-management-changes-2324/
Change at the top in Calibre - hopefully, this might allow a change in policy for toll milling from La India and unblock whatever has been stopping it from happening so far! The new guy is obviously a big fan of the hub and spoke strategy in Nicaragua..
"“The Board of Directors of Calibre is very pleased to welcome Darren Hall to his new role as President, CEO and Director of the Company. Darren is an experienced mining professional who was involved in the acquisition of Calibre’s Libertad and Limon gold mines in 2019. He is the originator of Calibre’s “Hub and Spoke” operating strategy which has resulted in a 30% increase in our forecast gold production in 2021 to 170,000 to 180,000 ozs. "
regards
T123
I know a lot has been made of the remaining 5% land purchases, but I think we need to apply some basic reasoning here..
The company already own 100% of the land where the plant will be situated. So they could go ahead and buy a plant and start construction (they have already commenced the ground clearance and site preparation as we have seen).
So while, of course, they WILL need 100% of the land in the longer term, I don't think they actually need it RIGHT NOW. I expect that if that situation was to change, for example, if Calibre signed a 40koz pa toll deal tomorrow, in which case CNR then really needed the land to be bought "tout suite", they would go ahead and pay the asking price - simple economics, pay $1M to make $10M a year profit. But until that happens (when/if) why pay through the nose? And they wont give away land on Mestiza, as thats a prime target for ore for either toll milling or initial production.. I think MC has said there is around $200M from 35m depths, i.e a shallow, cheap to extract, permitted open pit.
The processing plant will take at least 12 months to construct from the point it arrives in the country, and there may be a lead time on that to get through import bureaucracy (2nd hand plant from Guatemala less so, I think a new plant from China has a much longer lead time).
So lets say a toll deal doesn't materialise from Calibre or Mako, then the company probably doesn't actually NEED to own 100% of the land for another 12 months or so. Plenty of time to conduct negotiations, get a better price, clear up land titles, reduce fraudulent claims etc. (Plus maybe find replacement land for the artisanal miners to work - again not absolutely necessary unless a toll deal is struck, or until its needed for extracting ore - the miners can continue to work there until thats the case).
MC has said he is running the company as if they own 100% of the land, and I believe him. They are pushing on with getting the project shovel ready for construction. And of course, they now have the money to drill Cacao to add to their resources,, hopefully past 3Moz this year and on towards 5Moz..
I think our only remaining question therefore is, can the company borrow the money to go ahead and buy / construct the plant without 100% of all the project land (i.e including all the open pit areas at La India, Mestiza and America) being fully owned? Or is that a blocker?
regards,
T123
Mean while, back in the real world.. I found this interesting commentary on the SP from back in August 2020.. I dont remember it being highlighted at the time..
https://ukinvestormagazine.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Junior-Gold-Miners.pdf
CONDOR GOLD (CNR)
Condor Gold PLC is a gold exploration company. The Company operates projects in Nicaragua and El
Salvador. The Company's interests include approximately 10 concessions in the La India Mining District in
Nicaragua, and over four licenses in approximately two project areas in El Salvador.
Fundamentals
Condor recently updated the market stating they have made ‘significant progress’ in meeting the terms of
its environment permit for development and exploration in Nicaragua. Condor has 1.12 million ounces of
gold open pit mineral resources permitted for extraction, inclusive of a mineral reserve of 6.9 million
tonnes at three grams of gold per tonne for 675,000 ounces of gold. With Gold prices around $2000 there
will be appetite to continue exploration even when production begins. The fresh round of funding in June
means the company is well positioned in the near term.
Market Capitalisation: £60.42 million
Sector: Mining
12 Month Price Range: 18.50 – 61p
Technical Analysis
Shares in Condor Gold soared at the end of May 2020, far outstripping the gains seen the physical price of
gold. The pullback was quite aggressive and would have forced out some nervy investors. Those that are in
for the long haul have seen since a recovery back towards those 52-week highs around 62p. Overall, the
trend remains bullish and the gains continue to outperform the physical price. Expect dips to be bought
and for a continuation of the trend over the medium term.
Verdict: BUY
Buy between 42 – 50p
Stop: 33p
Target: 100p
I understand the frustration of the delays here as well as anyone. Delays with permitting the resource, buying the land etc. Here are my thoughts for this year..
1) Buy the remaining land - this remains a priority. Its understandable that the locals (and some non-locals) want as much money as possible. The working miners in the co-operative still need to earn money by producing gold to sell (although I would argue that the company ultimately want to stop the rastras from polluting the environment locally and process their ore at the main plant instead).
2) Owning the remaining land could then allow them to extract the ore for toll milling to La Libertad with Calibre or to San Albino with Mako. In my opinion, they want to execute their plans on this first to begin cashflow, prior to raising any finance for the plant build (doing so at a higher SP price will reduce equity dilution). Perhaps Calibre dont necessarily want this to happen as it would increase the Condor share price, should they ever want to buy La India.
3) Buying a plant and getting it into the country is a priority this year. They will also need to announce an EPCM contract award to build it - likely to be Lycopodium.
4) In parallel, the company will do 10,000m of drilling this year to add resources from Cacao and possibly other sites. Good assay grade results should help to generate interest in the project and at least maintain the SP while the other big ticket items happen.
5) In 18 months (12 months from plant financing), the company could begin producing 80-120koz of gold from the three open pits of La India, Mestiza and America. These will be super low cost as they are all very shallow. Probably $600-$700 an ounce AISC max.
6) For a possible valuation of the company at that point, see the latest Calibre results here: https://www.calibremining.com/news/calibre-exceeds-high-end-of-2020-production-guidan-2153/
Calibre produced 136,000oz last year at $1000AISC. Their market cap is £324M. But it went as high as £550M when gold was at $2100. With 150M shares in issue, CNR would be worth £2.50-4.00..
7) I think that any equity raise for financing will happen on the Canadian market and shares will be placed on the TSX to generate liquidity there. Why is this so important? As alluded to in the interview yesterday, London does not understand or appreciate mining shares, particularly junior explorers. Canadian investors are also more comfortable with South America as a jurisdiction.
8) Underground at La India and potentially other satellite open pits at Cacao will be added to the mine plan (much quicker/easier to permit as they are just satellite pits to feed an existing plant). This could increase the mill output to 200koz+.
To balance the comments above, yes there are still risks from the political situation in Nicaragua.. but plenty of gold mines operate in much worse jurisdictions that are prone to civil conflicts - think Africa as an example.
regard
I think MC is reiterating the strategy here, get shovel ready, prove up 5Moz deposit, demonstrate potential of 200koz+ per year for 20+ years, low cost jurisdiction of $700 AISC.. as he says in the interview, there are very very few of those kind of projects (that are permitted for extraction) anywhere in the world.. at some point, a mid tier/major (who are all making serious cash flow gains right now due to lowers costs, higher gold prices) is going to want to buy that kind of shovel ready project.. and quite possibly more than one, which would induce a bidding war of sorts.. Calibre might not have the money to buy CNR, but Rio Tinto most certainly do..
Just need to continue to be patient here and hope that election in Nic later this year maintains the political status quo which is very much pro-mining.. and also hope that the price of gold hits $2000+ again as well!
regards
T123
Just released from Calibre..
https://www.calibremining.com/news/calibre-provides-2020-resource-expansion-and-infil-2148/
regards
T123
cambells - Im not sure it does mean that.. the company would have a confidentiality agreement in place for toll milling talks, the same as they do for plant purchase discussions with the company in Toronto (Savona we think).. so neither JM or MC can talk about any toll milling terms explicitly.. its price sensitive news as it means cashflow for the company.. and also for Calibre as it would improve their production forecasts as well.. so I still think there might be life in that story yet..
I dont think MC has hung up his magic hat just yet ;-)
regards,
T123
frenchie - im not sure we should read too much into the RB thing.. although yes if he is going to sell his shares in CNR then it may cause a drag on the SP - we could also be seeing some selling of 31p warrants, or some profits (or losses) being booked before April 5th.. When the new shares are issued on 1st March, again we could see a dip back down to 40-45p.. but for me its just a matter of time now before we get an announcement on land, plant purchase, or financing - these may need to wait on results of technical studies for site wide water balance and TSF facility plans from the earlier geotechnical drilling results.. those are well along now, so hopefully wont be too much more time to pass until the whole picture is known..
Personally, from a selfish pov I wouldnt mind seeing the SP stay around the 45-55p until the new ISA year on April 5th.. then MC can release all the news he wants! :-P
regards
T123
Wurz - the average market investor simply doesnt understand the significance of the RNS today.. plus the institutionals are probably still on the sidelines waiting for the company to actually announce its detailed mine schedule / financing plans as they may want to a) participate in a placing for equity at a lower price than buying in the open market or b) just wait to see how much dilution / what kind of a financing deal can be struck in terms of debt/equity/gold loans etc.. and then buy in the open market when they know for definite that the project is actually happening..
Here is the thing though - JM as a NED, ALREADY KNOWS that CNR is currently planning all of these things and yet he decides to buy £2Million worth RIGHT NOW at 42p per share - i.e he is not waiting to participate in a placing for equity for the plant as a whole at a cheaper price.. so we all need to ask ourselves.. why not? CNR didnt need the extra money right away as they already had £4M in the bank.. so why did JM want to put £2M in RIGHT NOW? Before the mine plan and financing is announced... Thoughts ? Was he just being kind buying at 42p even though he knows that a huge placing is coming at 30p or whatever which will dilute everyone to heck? Without even any warrants or options as part of the deal? Sometimes we all need to read between the lines here... the guy did not become a billionaire by wasting his money on sentiment..
regards
T123
Awax - good to read the Cacao report and watch the video from Warren Pratt again.. 500koz - 1Moz of gold they estimate in Cacao prospect alone, 4km strike length towards Santa Barbara.. all sounds great... :-)
And then you realise that this is only a 5000m drill campaign and there is another 15,000m that can be done to add more ounces by just drilling La India along strike and down dip where they already know there is high gold grades.. from the current resource of 2.4Moz, you could increase that to 3-3.5Moz easily just from that.. again, sounds even better.. :-D
And then you realise that even after Condor drilled those vein systems, they would still only have explored less than 10% (!!!) of their land concession package of 580 sq km.. they still have many other vein systems to drill that they know of locally and have returned samples of 50g/t + gold grades... thats why i think they realise (JM certainly does) that this is likely to be a 5Moz-10Moz district when all is said and done.. Dont get me wrong, that will take about 5 years to fully define.. but in the meantime if CNR can start producing gold at 120koz in 2 years, quickly bring in the underground at La India for another 50koz.. thats 170koz per year from "only" 2.4M oz of their resources.. lets say there is 7.5Moz in the district.. you could be looking at 400-500koz per year given enough time and a big enough plant... As I have been saying for ages, thats a Tier 1 high grade low cost gold district.. those are very rare in the world today and the kind that majors pay premiums for.. so no wonder JM is happy to buy another £2M worth at 42p..
regards,
T123
Despite the recent placing at 42p and the price of gold tanking recently, CNR is holding up very well indeed. After such a hiatus I just want to see news on the progress being made - as I have said before, I think this company is essentially pregnant with quadruplets! When the first one arrives, the rest are sure to follow.. Land Purchase, Plant Purchase, Toll Milling?, Mine Schedule, EPCM contract awarded, Full project financing.. i do think any and all of these could land in the next 3-6 months.. not to mention several lots of high grade drill results from multiple locations around La India..
regards
T123