Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Very good year for the company in my mind - lots accomplished. Any comments anyone? I know there are always concerns over cash burn for a junior exploration company, but I think what MC is achieving on an average of £125k expenditure a month for the company is pretty remarkable.. Yes its a "loss" of 1.5M or so per yea ron paper, but for building a 120koz pa gold mine that should produce initial free cashflow of around $120M a year, rising to $200m a year pretty soon after, I take that as a major bargain!
regards,
T123
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/CNR/results-for-the-year-ended-31-december-2020-oig94gs9x34ruu3.html
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/945345/condor-gold-announce-some--fantastic--results-from-drilling-in-the-northern-starter-pit-of-la-india-945345.html
Is fantastic better than solid? ;-)
regards,
T123
So maybe we could be about to see a washout low in the gold price and hopefully some investors / funds panic and start selling off everything that has "% Gold" in the name, just as the new tax year starts next week.. ooh there could be some more cheapy cheapy ISA shares on the way :-D :-D :-D
regards,
T123
Thanks awax - I also think that it doesnt make sense for Condor to pay off the co-operative and buy their land, before they can either a) give them other land to work elsewhere or better, b) train them and give them a job in construction for the new mine etc much safer than working as a miner with dubious safety capabilities and mercury contamination for the environment etc.. its all just a transition period, i dont think anyone is necessarily holding out and delaying things.. condor doesnt need the land right now anyway..
regards,
T123
WG - the interesting thing for me is that it doesnt seem as if the market is reacting any more to these lower gold and silver prices by selling off the POLY, CEY, FRES shares etc like the usual kneejerk reaction... feels very bullish actually..
I think investors are finally calling BS on the manufactured and blatantly false gold price drops - they know that the producers are making shed loads even at this gold price.. all eyes on latest CPI inflation figures out of Germany at 1pm..
We could still see a wash-out low to $1650-$1600 before the next huge leg up in gold prices.. again, if the market does panic and sell off the gold shares, it will be time to kitchen sink it...
regards
T123
https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-03-29/Gold-s-strongest-price-rally-is-coming-Wells-Fargo-s-2021-target-is-2-200.html
Would something like this count? ;-)
regards
T123
bigjamie. I know - 15g/t gold grades a few metres under the surface and no one cares... TBH, I expect the market may continue not to care until suddenly gold starts going up 50 and 100$ a day and they are left scratching their heads and wondering why.. and suddenly they will remember all these junior explorers who have found shedloads of that yellow shiny stuff in the past... but in the meantime, i am accumulating more shares here! I dont think there is anything sinister.. its just that investors are fickle, too dim to understand drill results and are sentiment driven towards covid stocks, US tech and bitcoin atm.. gold is irrelevant to them, until suddenly all that changes and they realise that physical gold is one of, if not THE only store of real value in the monetary system and will hold purchasing power against rampant inflation.. (see the gold chart from 1970 to 1980..)
Like others, I think big catalysts will be land completion, full project financing, toll milling etc. There are plenty of places with gold in the ground - but not that many places where they can actually extract it.. when CNR proves that they can monetise their assets relatively quickly, cheaply and safely, it has to drive up interest here.. I would just view this as a time to accumulate, allow time for CNR to find more gold (especially at Cacao) and execute their project plans to build a 100-120koz per year mine.. it takes real patience though!! :-)
regards
T123
Awax - Yeah, yeah - even more high grade gold. Tell us something we dont know MC ;-)
From book5 over in the "other place.."
"Three more rumours: - The modest increase in the scope of the India's drilling was because in the last few drills they found large concentration of gold , what they locally call "escarche". I heard that as a result the security at our stores has been increased from 2 to 4 guards to secure the cores/samples till they leave the site. This is probably a small area, so do not get over-excited. As MC said there will be plus and minuses from our drilling campaign.
At this end, there is a secondary vein in Condor's land (close to the main one), that was never mined, but was explored by the Russians and other company with trenches, and that CNR will not be drilling at the moment because the new priority is the Mestiza. At the Mestiza, CNR has been building earth rig's mats, and access ramps to start drilling probably after Easter.
The reason they are not negotiating with the cooperative is because we are waiting for the lab's results to find out how much gold is in their land, after the lab's results CNR should make an offer. So it seems It makes sense we started drilling on the Cooperative's land.
All above rumours are just rumours till they are confirmed by a rns, they may not be confirmed if the rumours are false. It seems that at cacao the drilling workers are not locals."
So we look forward to the assay results from the drill holes in the Southern starter pit now! Expecting to see another RNS published this week with the final company results for year ending 31st December 2020..
regards
T123
https://www.thetradenews.com/credit-suisse-and-nomura-face-multi-billion-prime-brokerage-losses-from-archegos-sell-off/
Credit Suisse and Nomura warn of losses after hedge fund fire sale – business live.. Looks like gold is selling off short term as its being sold as a hedge to cover some of this volatility - Watch very very carefully for any sign of contagion happening here - Could we about to see a wash out low in the gold price? Another financial crisis about to start perhaps? Couple of things..
1) If Condor shares sell off down to 20-30p again as per last March in tandem with the gold price, then start backing up the truck, but you will have to be quick to beat me ;-)
2) If the price of gold drops and Condor shares DONT sell off in tandem, then start selling your kitchen sink to put the proceeds in here or A.N.Other gold shares, cos that would be a very very bullish sign!
AIMHO and DYOR of course, but something has to give in this crazy system soon.. BigDog, Nero are you watching this happening?
regards,
T123
https://calibremining.com/news/calibre-increases-mineral-reserves-by-over-200-to-2660/
All good PR for Nicaragua gold mining situation.. hopefully it starts to attract some new players to the country (like Rio Tinto's partnership with Calibre already)..
regards
T123
ISAP - there are a few trades today (as there have been over the past week) which are bed and ISA's? Is that what you mean? i.e the broker sells from your share account and transfers to your ISA account, usually pretty close to the same SP.. there was a pair of 31k trades today that are undoubtedly an example of these.. they usually happen close to the bid price, so they look like sells?
But yes, apart from that, I can sell 65k shares here easily, so i am pretty sure there is demand.. I think RB might still be a seller at 50p level though, unless he lowers his asking price..
Hold for gold has never been a more appropriate saying than in Condors case.. just wait for some more of those drilling results to come back! ;-) I really, really hope that they hit the bonanza grades on Cacao and that they are fairly close to the surface.. if CNR could open pit (i.e lower extraction costs than underground) the Cacao vein for another 1-1.5M ounces.. my goodness La India will start to look very tasty indeed to some potential buyers..
regards
T123
From a selfish point of view, I think there are some of us who wouldnt mind if MC holds off on any news until next Tuesday.. personally I would be more than happy to get a few more of these in a new ISA at these crazy prices..
regards
T123
ISAP - Yes definitely expecting a drilling update. Also expecting to see the companies annual report released this week as well which will probably contain an up to date statement on the latest goings on..
Regards
T123
Cambells - yes exactly.. And I think whats needed now is an updated PFS to show exactly that - an updated figure for projected Capex, along with the change to the economics of bringing Mestiza and America into the mine plan. For me, that will come after the infill drilling has completed and all assay results received from the starter pits. The last PFS study was 2014 and CNR has come a very long way since then (so has the PoG). The reduction in Capex, increase to IRR etc on this project given all thats been spent on it already will be considerable. I would expect this to provide another catalyst to the SP. It may be that this PFS would be required before construction financing can be agreed.
The point is, its all to play for here this year.. Short term, I do worry that the roughly 4M overhang of share sells from RB will hold the SP back, but long term its looking positive. Personally, as a LTH, I am beginning to wish that RB would just sell off his shares at any price and allow the rest of us to buy them cheaper.. unless..
Unless RB has an ulterior motive for keeping the SP artificially low.. remember he has a big stake in Equinox who are growing their production capacity substantially atm.. it may well be in the realms of fantasy (like my Calibre theories according to some) but if you wanted to launch a cheap takeover bid at 50% higher than the 50dma for example, wouldnt you like to be able to control the SP and stifle it below 50p for a while, then go for a cheap takeout bid for 75p to appeal to long suffering LTH's? Pure conjecture of course, but RB didnt get to be a billionaire by playing fair...
regards
T123
https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-03-25/Lowest-cost-gold-mining-companies-in-2020-report.html
If CNR can produce gold according to its PFS at $690 AISC it would put them at No.2 in this table of lowest cost producers.. Quite amazing really.. you cant tell me it wouldnt then be a target for a takeover!
regards,
T123
Wurz - totally understand your frustration here. But nearer term SP drivers (i.e before first production late 2022) of the share price for me would be, in order of likeliness - a) much higher gold prices b) 40koz pa toll mill deal with calibre/mako c) resource upgrade d) takeover offer..
But yes, personally I am prepared to wait another 18 months if necessary to see this approaching full value.. Downside risk would be the election in Nicaragua in November this year..
regards,
T123
Yes I would also be quite happy to see these share prices last until 9th April.. :-) I wouldnt even mind if Ross decides to reduce his limit sell price from 50p to 40p and I can get some more cheaper than what JM just paid for his £2M worth.. (42p)
regards,
T123
Interesting update on Mina La India Facebook page 20 mins ago with a picture of a drill - never seen them do this before.. Te compartimos un excelente dato de minería or " We share an excellent mining data with you" Very cryptic..
But yes apart from that.. we seemed to have reached an impasse - no one is selling at these prices and no one is prepared to buy until they get more information! So which way will the SP go next I wonder..
I'm happy that the recent warrants that were purchased at 31p etc are not being sold for a quick 50% profit.. it shows that everyone is waiting on big progress here.. apart from Ross Beaty! ;-)
regards,
T123