I believe it’s a 50/50 profit sharing deal but the best description I have seen of a potential deal is on page 9 of the report below
https://www.condorgold.com/sites/default/files/WHI%20Condor%20Gold%20research%20note%20130p%20target%20FINAL%20051120.pdf
In an attempt to generate early cash flow, Condor is considering the potential of high- grade starter pits delivering ore to the plant at La Libertad (~250 kms away). This option has many advantages, not least a low initial capital expenditure, early generation of cash flow and credibility, establishing infrastructure and a footprint at La India and demonstration of concept; the value of which cannot be under estimated.
A PEA by Calibre Mining has examined the potential of trucking ore from its El Limon mine and Pavon project a similar distance (250-300kms) to the La Libertad mill shows costs of trucking in the order of $20/t with processing costs (for its own ore) of $16/t.
If Condor were to pursue a tolling option we would expect production in the order of ~40koz/yr gold from 300kt/yr of open pit ore grading 4.5g/t gold. Assuming payment for a 90% recovery of the gold, a contractor mining cost of $4/t material, La India Site costs of $2m/yr, trucking costs of $20/t and a toll processing cost of $25/t we would expect La India to generate a net profit after tax for the operation of ~$25m/yr – for only a small capital outlay.
Regards
T123
Sakura - nice buy for £30k if it’s yours.. I tend to check whether my trades for £30k have gone through or not but each to their own ;-)
Come on MC. Come on Condor. Come on Nicaragua. Let’s get a move on this year... :-)
Regards
T123
Nice way to start 2021, gold price at 1930 (past the old 2011 high) and a director share purchase.. Hopefully he won’t be selling those 100k @ 22p shares for 50p when they are issued to make a quick 150% profit.
Next news will be Mestiza infill drilling progress and then La India drill results by end of Feb as well.
One question though - what the heck are Calibre thinking right now - huge excess capacity on idle at La Libertad mill while there is high grade permitted ore ready for extraction with gold above $1900 an ounce.. they are already pursuing a hub and spoke strategy from all around Nicaragua.. just add a pickup point at La India and away you go.. easy money for both Condor and Calibre.. there is more to the delay of that decision than meets the eye, I’m sure of it.. it’s a no brainer on the face of it..
Regards,
T123
I think there is a view that the rise in bitcoin this year has been due to the fact that its being seen as the "new gold" i.e for millennials its viewed as a safe haven play and hedge against a weak dollar / inflation.. (they are not just speculating/gambling with their unemployment cheques at all) this may have taken the shine off the price of gold this year (traditional investment safe haven), and may limit its price action in the coming year too, just as Condor starts production from toll milling and makes a construction decision. While $1900 gold is still profitable based on $700 AISC, gold at $3000 would be rather better, wouldnt you say?! :-)
I suppose thats why its being discussed here, as it could limit the upside potential of Condor if it continues to rise by 30% every 3 weeks because clearly thats sustainable..
regards
T123
Yep agreed, nice bit of tax planning :-) Fortunately all my shares in CNR are already held within an ISA, so nothing else required except to sit, watch and wait. If I could be selfish for a moment, I would just like any big news (e.g toll mining) to drop after April 5th 2021, as I would like to add more in the next ISA year.. :-) Adding here at anything sub 50p would be fab.
regards,
T123
You also have to look at the state of the surrounding countries in South America... Venezuela, Colombia, Mexico and even Brazil and Argentina have serious economic problems. Apart from the attempted coup in April 2018 which was probably US funded/instigated, lets be honest, Nicaragua is actually doing not too badly in comparison. The wests constant fixation with removing dictatorships isnt always whats best for an individual country - Iraq/ Libya are cases in point. Im not defending one side or the other btw. Just that Nicaraguans may look outside their own country and realise that things could be a lot worse. That being said, the November elections do still worry me here. Its about the only thing that concerns me here this year though tbh. I think CNR will have achieved a lot by that point anyway, namely
1) Drilling completed and TFS /engineering studies done
2) Plant deposit / financing completed
3) 40koz Toll mining agreement concluded and up and running with Calibre producing $20M free cashflow a year
4) Construction on a 50-75koz plant started around August/Sep with a target 12 month build/first pour time by Lycopodium.
5) Gold prices should reach new highs this year, approaching $2500
SP Price by end of 2021 = At least £1.50 is my guess
regards
T123
Worth looking back at the past 1yr chart and noting that on 24th December 2019 the share price was 19p!!. So for anyone selling at 46p, perhaps having bought at 20p (as Randy did) thats over 100% profit in a year. However, as I don’t need the money right now, I’d rather keep all my shares that I bought at 18-20p for an even bigger payday!
I’m actually feeling very reflective today. Just looking back over events of the last year and thinking what people of the world have been through. For those of us who are comfortably well enough off to be investing our spare cash here and who live in a wealthy country with an excellent healthcare system and under no threat of war or the brutalisation of our women and children, with freedom of speech, worship etc, sometimes it’s good just to be thankful for those things alone...
Wishing you all a very happy holiday season wherever you are and whatever your beliefs.. I know I’ve said it for ten years now, but I honestly, definitely, absolutely think that 2021 is going to be Condors year to truly take flight.. :-D
Best Regards
T123
Probably best to view this in Chrome and do the translate from spanish to english option..
https://www.minalaindia.com.ni/2020/12/21/condor-gold-anuncia-importantes-avances-para-construccion-de-la-nueva-mina-de-oro-en-nicaragua/
Nothing new exactly, but confirms what Aiser Sarria has been saying to the press recently..
regards
T123
Just a few people selling in low quantities to pay some bills either for tax or for presents... Loads of people do their income tax returns on 25th and pay their tax bill at the same time.. Fairly standard procedure for those who have been here for ten years.. there is no sinister reason for any small sells..
2021 - Toll mill deal would see Condor become a 40koz pa producer. Drilling could see the resource hit 3Moz
2022 - Plant starts producing 50koz-75koz of gold per year, quick payback on any debt.. dividends start?
I do feel that 2021 is the year that Condor will start being taken seriously.. by both AIM and the TSX.. if that can coincide with gold going over $2000 an ounce and even hitting new all time highs up to $2500-$3000, then its the perfect storm..
regards,
T123
One other thing that does slightly concern me is that we could see c.2 million warrants bought at 31p before end of January 2021 (see below for numbers), which could then be sold onto the market at say 46p for the holders to bank some profit and/or free shares - all the while keeping the SP artifically depressed! Hopefully any warrant buyers will be holding for the long term but its easy money for some... the plus side being that the company would get £600k to use for land purchases etc
regards
T123
1,956,249 warrants at exercise price of 31p. Expiry date 7 February 2021
3,240,421 warrants at exercise price 25p. Expiry date 15 July 2022
8,639,330 warrants at exercise price 40p. Expiry date 28 May 2023
Yesterday was a very weird day.. lots of volume, good buying on seemingly no news - then today, practically nothing.. few trades and very low volumes.. Next news will be RNS on Mestiza drilling in early January I guess..
regards,
T123
On a day with no news as such and winding down towards the holidays, yes this is very good volume. Looks like a 100k sell at 50p possibly but the time on the trade from this morning also means it could be a buy..
I do wonder if Randy Martin still needs the money and is selling more of his remaining shares at 50p.. that’s twice now we have been over 50p and it’s dropped back again.. can’t last forever though.. he can’t have many more, if any, left.. I think he will be kicking himself shortly..
Regards
T123
For me, the point is that the guys in the know here, namely MC and Jim Mellon are incredibly bullish / relaxed about the prospects here. They have both publicly stated that this month. Jim says I’ll be buying more and that this is a multi bagger opportunity.. and Mark has done several interviews this month where he looks like the cat that’s got the cream.
They own over 20% of the company between them, I’m led to believe that they know far more than I do about what’s going to happen at Condor next year. So why would I sell now after waiting ten years for this opportunity! Sometimes we forget that the whole point of AIM is that the risk reward ratio is massive and it’s just an incubator for companies to grow - look at NCYT this year etc.. could condor be £5 or even heading up to £10 a share after a bull run in gold and production news / good drilling and upgraded resource results - why not?
Regards,
T123
Connect - I think for all of us right now it’s a question of - do you either 1) need the money foe something else (no shame in that as it’s been a hard year for everyone) and/or 2) do you see better (or perhaps safer) opportunities for your money elsewhere at this point in time? and/or 3) do you expect CNR to fall significantly from this point?
Personally, I’m now completely relaxed for the next 6-9 months here.. even if it falls back to 40p in the short term which I seriously doubt now..
Regards
T123
Despite MC best efforts, there are still a few leaks that get out to the market before we get an RNS - the placing at 36p this year is an example of that. But it works both ways, there could be a leak regarding a toll agreement with Calibre which would push this up pretty rapidly on seemingly “no news”..
I think the point here is that we saw the lack of liquidity recently after drilling update - no one could buy 5k shares for quite some time. Something will have to give at some point.. I think the days of being able to build a large stake here cheaply are rapidly coming to an end.. I wouldn’t like to be trying to buy 500k at 50p here at this point, put it that way!! Sitting pretty now I think..
And how on earth the price of gold is not higher at this point, I’ll never know. And with Bitcoin up 20%.. ?? call me old fashioned, but it’s still nice to get the yellow shiny heavy stuff out of the safe and look at it.. harder to feel quite the same about some 0s and 1s on a screen..
Regards
T123
Willowman - thats an interesting comment, many thanks - its good to have another way of looking at things from a different angle! :-) Yes, a toll deal would push up the SP then they come in and offer +40-50% say, £1.70 a share.. for a 5Moz district, thats still an absolute bargain!
regards
T123
AF - Interesting article in Nicaragua La Prensa, many thanks for posting! I like the fact that we all finally got a mention after 14 years :-DDDD
Investors had faith in the project
Despite the fact that Foreign Direct Investment in the country has fallen by 54 percent
until the third quarter of 2020 in Nicaragua, the manager of Condor Gold affirmed that
they have solid investors who have ensured the continuity of the project, until the full
functionality of the mine for years to come.
«They are investors who have believed in this country, who have believed in this project
since it began to invest, I remind them that of these 14 years, there are practically 11
years that were only investment without knowing if there were going to be results, the
last Three years is when we have obtained results and we have begun to develop
activities in preparation for having a productive project, "he said.
regards
T123
Another good video and good news on financing. Its just a case of "when" this happens now. I would also say that for investors, its a question of how much dilution will it require.. I think the market is being far too pessimistic on that front too. Lets take this scenario:
$60-70M capex for the1500tpd, 75kozpa plant. I honesty think that can be 70/30% debt to equity with the gold price the way it is and the AISC costs. Gold loans will be in the mix here too, Silver Wheaton, Metalla, Royal Gold or some other precious metal streaming company are going to be interested, there is simply no doubt about it..
That would make 30% of $70M around $21M or £15M for CNR cash/equity side of things.. At 50p, thats 30 million shares, around 25% dilution. But thats without a toll deal pushing up the market cap/SP before any cash raise. If the SP could be £1, that only 15 million shares or about 8% dilution of 117M.. If Capex is $60M, its even less either way..
But if, as we now believe, they do that placing onto TSX market, which really appreciates gold miners, even in Nicaragua, the resulting uplift in SP / market cap etc will be spectacular. CNR are aiming for 120koz then 170koz. Calibre have a market cap of £475M and they are producing 120koz pa at the moment. If CNR have 150M shares with a £475M market cap ? Then add 40% to that when underground comes on stream? Thats why when folks here talk about a £3-5.00 target SP, its really not just pie in the sky! And Calibre have higher costs at around $1000 an ounce - CNR is predicting $700! So $300 more profit x 120koz, thats quite substantial..
regards
T123
One thing is for sure, the higher the price of gold goes, the more pressure on both sides to do a toll deal..
I think Calibres seeming reluctance is more to do with the fact that La India would fit perfectly into their hub and spoke model in Nicaragua if they could buy it on the cheap.. toll mining makes it more expensive..
Regards
T123