Member Info for TerryM1

Https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-12/nigel-farage-pledges-to-slap-windfall-tax-on-uk-wind-farms

Not trying to start a political discussion here just reporting the news.

From what I saw Reform want to get the subsidies back which have been paid to Wind Farms, also not keen on BESS.

Of course we have no idea if Reform will be or be part of the next Government and this is not the place to speculate but this does not look good not matter what side of the fence you are on.

"TSE 250 not an ambitious enough target.. to become the largest independent in the North Sea"

Or to put it another way the largest independent tax payer in the North Sea and to become more susceptible to political/financial attacks by UK government.

Have they leaned nothing, the UK in general is not investable, but the O&G is an order of magnitude worse, making money in the UK is a dirty word but from O&G puts you at public Enemy Number One.

3 US Stocks Estimated To Be Up To 48.5% Undervalued Offering A 15.9% Discount Opportunity

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-us-stocks-estimated-48-100220509.html

Overview: International Paper Company produces and sells renewable fiber-based packaging and pulp products across North America, Latin America, Europe, and North Africa with a market cap of approximately $28.90 billion.

Operations: The company's revenue segments include Industrial Packaging at $15.53 billion and Global Cellulose Fibers at $2.79 billion.

Estimated Discount To Fair Value: 42.3%

International Paper, trading at US$55.64, is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value of US$96.43 based on discounted cash flow analysis. Despite high debt levels and a dividend not fully covered by earnings or free cash flows, the company's earnings grew substantially last year and are expected to grow at 22.73% annually over the next three years, outpacing the broader market's growth rate. Recent strategic acquisitions enhance its position in sustainable packaging solutions.

Boydie1988

See my post below, you should have these in your account on or around 5 Feb, if not contact your broker to find out what has happened.

Think I might start a group "Just Stop Acquisitions".

Broomtree

No offence taken, found it quite funny.

ShaunBTM

Will depend on interest rates, if they stay high for too long will give SUPR trouble when the loans come up for refinancing, also not a good place to be if interest rates are too high above inflation as number the properties have inflation indexed rent.

Saying all that I am on the optimistic side and think the SP will very very slowly return to £1 levels and well paid while waiting. However any spare I have got cash going into ITs/REITs being taken over, wound down or a good chance of either happening as I think it should give better returns, just my opinion.

Broomtree

"Either way I would hope a sustained move above £14 would put them to bed for good! (Or until the next purchase Terry ha ha)"

So do I almost everyone here, I dream of breaking even, 72p to go and have nightmare about purchase, well not really but seems to fit my profile here.

JonnyGee

https://www.yellowcakeplc.com/

U3O8 price working again, now $67.38.

Jim800

I am sure AROs will be fine while Republicans are in power but could be a big problem when Democrats get in next, IMO DEC should ramp up the plugging to at least look like they are taking this seriously, 202 plugged out off 70,000+ wells does not look good. However as you say individual states target could cause a problem.

TrekMadone Fishinggardener

I am also in SEIT seems like a well run company with great yield and will hold but not certain Trump will be that kind to them.

Another one for good yields is PHNX which both myself and TREK have, if you want a small company doing well look at SRT a good company doing very well which I have a small holding.

nick2723

I also have been trading DEC and with dividends my average is £14.42 but as it is unfortunately my largest holding I have large losses. Will start to trade DEC again at some point, tried a few days ago but price shot up in less than a minute while selling some short term money fund to get cash for the deal.

Not sure if I mentioned it before but if you have a reasonable amount of cash likely to sitting around for more than a few days take a look at CHS2, yields around 5.5% no stamp duty and small spread. Better than the 2% or less from HL and II or nothing from IWEB.

Jim800

The more I look at this the more it looks to me only one side of story is being reported e.g. debt paid off with no info on increase of debt. As you and I have said need more like for like figures to get a true picture otherwise GG comments that all of these deals are there to hide the real situation have a whiff of truth about them, not that I buy in to this but can’t total dismiss this at present.

Market also does not like it, SP dropping while HH up at 3.5, need to wait until NY opens and then we shall see, hopefully get a more positive reaction.

JC01

I am only commenting on what I can see, I like facts and I do not support DEC like some people do their local football team, if I find what looks like a factual article that supports DEC I post it here which I have done on a number of occasions, do not post negative articles I have found that lack facts, also been posting when Blackrock increasing holding. Spent a long time calling out GG and Mr AROs for incorrect negative comments.

I am in DEC to make money (vain hope) so of course I am likely to be more on the negative side as DEC has lost me a lot of money, if I was making money it would be different as this shows the strategy is working which is clearly is not. Given external factors are now in DECs favour i.e. HH is at a decent level, Duel listing, Trump, AROs kicked into the long grass the loss can now clearly be laid at BODs door. If the BOD were to pursue a policy which was more supported of shareholder value the SP would probably be north of £22 given HH price and historical SP prices, future Gas price predictions and potential future under Trump, why not, been there before when HH at similar price.

What would be the point of this board if just an echo chamber and everyone just praised DEC no matter what they do including trashing the dividends and SP.

nick2723

"If Dec is retiring 202 wells a year and I've read somewhere it owns 69,000. Is this true?"

I think you are in the ball park and from memory seems right but may well have increased with latest deals which I don't think are included in these figures.

Sorry wells retired figures the wrong way round, should be

202 of DEC wells against stated goal of 200

Part 2

As data centres interact with cloud computing, a lay observer might think them impervious to distance and therefore capable of being located on the cheapest and most remote land. Not so, it seems. Greater distance perceptibly slows data transmission, so Tritax is committed to circling London, where customers such as Google, Meta and Apple have UK headquarters. However, London’s geographical position is a positive, as it is a halfway house for data communication between the United States and continental Europe.

Https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/markets/article/should-you-buy-shares-in-tritax-big-box-reit-8m5sjhkwb

Behind paywall which I managed top get around.

Part 1

A deal to develop a large data centre near Heathrow will be a game-changer for the warehouse investor

William Kay

Tuesday February 11 2025, 12.01am GMT, The Times

Big boxes are big business and they are about to become even bigger. Tritax Big Box Reit, an investor in distribution centres, has grown market capitalisation from £200 million to £3.6 billion by building or acquiring 100 warehouses for companies such as Amazon, B&Q and Ocado to receive goods and send them out to branches or customers. A deal last month has the potential to transform the company into a very different animal, however.

It has bought 74 acres at Manor Farm, near Heathrow airport, to develop a major data centre. The company is aiming to start construction on the site in the first half of next year, creating 448,000 sq ft of data halls across three floors. A possible second phase could add further capacity.

Both phases are subject to planning approval, but it would be a brave local authority that turned this down in defiance of a government desperate for economic growth. On January 30, Sir Chris Bryant, the minister for data protection and telecoms, said: “Without enough data centres, artificial intelligence will run out of juice. We have just over 500, putting us third globally, and in the AI Opportunities Action Plan, we committed to upping public computing power twentyfold by 2030.”

The Manor Farm announcement sent the shares up from 129p to 149p and there looks to be more to come. They tumbled from a five-year peak of 249p at the outbreak of the Ukraine war amid the economic downturn three years ago and have since been in a 124p to 168p range. They could now be poised to break out.

Tritax management are not publishing specific targets for how many data centres they want, saying only that they expect them to become “a meaningful part of the portfolio”, but realistically they could account for a quarter of the portfolio by 2040. That would have a direct impact on profits, as Manor Farm is due to produce a 9.3 per cent yield compared with 7 per cent for new logistics centres. The group is generating funds for expansion by selling older centres yielding only 5 per cent, so the average is rising.

Tritax is managed by the unquoted Tritax Group, which also manages the privately owned Tritax Europe. While the board of Tritax Big Box has the right to end that relationship, it is hardly an arm’s length arrangement.

The result looks good but difficult to tell as would need to see these on a like for like basis, also like to see a lot more detailed figures especially on a per share basis given dilution, this would then allow comparison. Market seems ambivalent to the results which is not a surprise as cannot tell if DEC is doing better or worse except HH prices have increased which of course everyone knows.

Lets hope NY likes this more than LSE.

Not sure what to make of “Retired over $200 million in debt principal through amortizing debt payments”, it must mean $200 debt paid back by paying the scheduled debt repayments but did exclude the addition of the new debt. I would like to see overall how much debt has been added/reduced (I wish), the interest rate of debt repaid against the interest rate of the debt added and the total debt now compared to the start of the period. Bit like saying I made the regular payments to one of my credit cards without mentioning added a lot to another or the interest rate differential on the cards.

Would have liked to see more wells retired, only 200 of DEC wells against stated goal of 202, was this stated goal made when DEC had a lot less wells. Would like to see some cash figures for Next LVL Energy including profit on the wells retired for 3rd parties. I do understand these AROs will be irrelevant for at least the next 4 years but would like to see increasing by more as a % of the l total wells at the end of the period.

It stated “$21 million in share buybacks” would like this to be compared to the number of new shares created during the period and not sure what to make of “Share repurchases include activity by Diversified's Employee Benefit Trust”, what is this activity and how can an Employee Benefit Trust BB shares as these should be cancelled. Is it that the Employee Benefit Trust bought some newly created shares at a discount to market price, a lot more information required.

Broomtree

On the face of it it looks good but without a break from these deals it is very difficult to see how good they really are, need to feed into the reports and see if FCF etc before reports cluttered with bits from next deal which has not had time to fully feed into accounts. From memory GG did make the point that they are hiding the state of the finances by keep doing deals so could not tell what was going on, not certain I buy this but until we have a break from these deals we won't be able to tell, potentially one thing he did say that could be true.

Drilling is a whole new game, much more risky, could do very well but also could lose lots of money, seen it before, SP will plummet if a duster. Not sure Trump will throw out incentives but will remove regulations holding back drilling along with cutting back/ending ESG etc

As the Chinese would say we live in interesting times but unfortunately does not mean they will be good, lets hope so.

Smartinvestment

I agree with the general sentiment of your post but it does not change the fact that IMO I was mislead by the comments/info from the BOD on the fund raise in order to get me and others to invest, IMO nearly of the drop in the SP is down to fact that the BOD/company have not delivered and not the market. I can only hope this success keeps coming and at at some point may even get my money back but suspect it will be a long time if any before this happens.

"we need to let this deal bed in"

Can't agree more, the problem we have is before each deal is bedded in along come another 1, 2, 3 .... and very difficult to see what is happening in the accounts which is adding to the issues holding the SP back. The question is can we get to £14 before another deal is done, deja vu all over again, new deal, SP tanks, was not long ago (before the last deal) was over £14 and there was talk of £15 which seems a very long way off now and all that there is to look forward is the Divi fixed for 3 years so cut on each payment in real terms after inflation taken into account.

The news is good perhaps very good news but this company is still no more than a life style choice for the BOD and seems to me will be a time before any profits. I am cynical because I bought into the info, dare I say potential lies at £1.40 on 09/07/2021 on a fund raise but since then all that is happened is that I have lost money and shares diluted, time this company at least reduced my losses by more than a small amount otherwise the only thing it is good for is a capital lose which I can use to offset against capital gains which is now more relevant with this government.