Member Info for TerryM1

He goes into hibernation after SP hits a certain level and only comes back if it goes down a lot. Its a bit like a vampire and light, GG share price.

NoQuestionMarks

"When we speculate on missed opportunities surely the Kistos takeover was the biggest missed opportunity?"

Just the cash part of the takeover alone was worth far more than any of the best broker exterminates for SQZ, Kistos management in the shape of AA know how to run as company while SQZ management can't run a bath. The main reason the SP is rising is global conflict but obviously being held back by the best the SQL management can do in terms of a deal is pay huge sums for a lot of debt and a pile of junk which still does not work.

Jim800

I think we have just about finished the full 1/2 hour argument for now at least.

JIM800

"If we didn’t have different views there’d be no one to buy when you wanted to sell and vice versa"

Not quite right as some sells are required for cash to be used elsewhere i.e. funds selling because of redemptions but I take your point and from my point of view these boards are best when sharing different views not just an echo chamber which is really your point.

Jim800

"so you accept lng is a viable asset for investing in but prefer a company based in a very dangerous geo-political location, with huge extraction and transportation costs over one in a secure location with simple extraction and transportation costs? enog ****ed up their last planned disposal so surprised you haven't got management questions there as well?"

Seems you prefer ENOG as well as you bought shares just the other day instead of DEC. Yes there are risks, not all ENOG assets are in "a very dangerous geo-political location" but that is part of the reason the SP is so low. They both have risks but the risks for ENOG are geo-political and DECs are Rusty and judging from SP moves ENOG SP peaked at £15.40 now £8.87 down 42%, DEC peaked at £28 now £10.98, 61% down from its peak so this means the market views the damage done to ENOG by geo-political factors and failed asset sale much lower than the damage done to DEC by Rusty. Add in ENOG is at height of it's geo-political risks and DEC is benefiting from this along with AROs, ESG concerns gone since Trump.

The last disposal from ENOG was unexpectedly blocked by the regulator, no doubt ENOG management should take some blame but not anywhere near as bad as committing to a deal without the finances causing a fire sale of DEC shares and ENOG have plans to reduce the debts as Rusty just added a huge amount at 9,75%.

"i like them both and agree enog dividend is currently better but still think dec has more chance of significant sp appreciation and definitely less risk."

For me ENOG dividend has a good chance of increasing while DEC is stuck for years to come which is one of the many factors holding back DEC SP.

VistaMan

I do believe/hope the SP will rise mostly because I believe DEC is very undervalued based on assets and HH going up but I also believe there are risks over and above what is normal for a share like this as has been mentioned many times, Rusty's acquisitions which has lead to the undervaluation, trashing of the SP and dividends. We do also have the AROs problem which could be back in less than 4 years so added risks long term add in the SP rise will be held back by the current dividend fixed for 3 years as O&G investors want good dividends. We may also get an end to some of the conflict in the medium term or perhaps short term with Iran which will reduce O&G prices. Lot of moving parts

So for now it is a balancing act, given the risks I am reducing my exposure to DEC trading as I go but "The further in time we move past the last acquisition" the more chance of the next SP trashing acquisition so while not pulling out completely at this point in time I am heading in that direction. If I was trading/investing in hindsight I would have pulled out long ago and entered back in below £9 to sell out just before the next crash. Must admit when I pulled out a large chunk at £13 as soon as the fire sale share raise was announced wish I sold the lot as I knew this would not end well but held back in case I read it wrong and the raise would be around £13 as shares did not immediately drop but went up a few p but soon after down she went. I knew if the shares were going to drop I had to act very quickly, I think it would have acted different if I had at least a minute or 2 to think it through and sold a lot more but but that time it was too late.

This is just my opinion in that ENOG is a better bet at present, SP down because of Iran conflict but very little chance ENOG will be hit but will lose some production, better run company, no AROs but some decommissioning costs, better dividend which has a much greater chance of rising and happy to return money to shareholders if they can. For these reasons I am decreasing my DEC holding and building my ENOG one along with Uranium miners which is a whole different and more complicated subject.

Jim800

"I didn’t say it was your fault it dropped I said it was your fault you didn’t sell at £28. (I didn’t either but accept personal responsibility for that - greedy!)"

So if you don't sell a share at it's peak you are greedy, seriously!

"You see the same “fault” for 8 repetitions and don’t agree with the strategy but remain invested - your fault. How many times could you have got out?"

In hindsight I would, trading in hindsight is very easy but only produces fantasy profits, as I said I did take action (which you seem to ignore) hence reduction in average with a lower number of shares so reduced risk and losses especially if or Rusty comes up with another one of his cunning plans.

"I said I’m not continually looking backwards, you most obviously are!"

Really so what have all my trades been about, I am looking to make money or at least reduce my losses and that is looking backwards in your mind, I am taking action, I live in the real world now, not the past or what might happen in the future.

"haven’t lost any money until I sell"

That is a total ridiculous statement as been discussed many times before, good job you do not accounts, work for a bank doing valuations (as I did for a time), need to borrow against your assets, need to give valuations to HMRC.

"Dividends will keep me happy whilst we hopefully get to fairer value."

Unless they trash the dividends again. You are easily pleased, happy to lose money and live on hope, wait for sometime in the future to break even which may not come, not an investment strategy I would pursue.

"Selling all my alternative shares to invest in DEC would be plain stupid - have you not heard of diversification? But I do now have about 30% of SIPP and ISA in DEC"

Agreed I would not do it but I also am not blind to the facts that investing in DEC has been a disaster. If you are so confident in DEC as you defend it at every opportunity why not buy more on margin, you could sell all your DEC shares and buy twice as many back on margin.

"Don’t expect you to agree as I see things to be cheerful about whilst you see things to fear"

This is the difference between us, I try not to let emotions rule my investment decisions, I do not fear what will happens to DEC, it makes up 8% of share holdings and less than 4% of my total wealth. I work of facts, MTM, not just loss on paper, jam tomorrow, sometime in the future maybe, might be.

Jim800

"DEC took you up to £1.40 old money (£28 now) and you chose not to sell. Not Rusty’ fault, yours"

Why is it my fault it dropped, it was Rusty's who trashed the SP and dividends or is that somehow down to me.

"According to your own daily repetition he’s crashed the SP 8 times and you’re still here - Shame on Rusty or shame on you?"

Not daily but quite a lot, seems it takes a lot of repetition for someone like you to understand the situation. To a certain extent shame on me but the main shame goes to Rusty who wilfully trashed the SP for his ambition to become the new JR.

"I’ve bought more recently at 940s and at 1020s on the way up. To date I’m holding, looking to the future and seeing value, not continually looking backwards at trades I could / should have made."

I sold out a chunk at £13 and bought back more at £9 (you can check my posts), since then trading in and out but now have less shares than I did before the latest crash, moved my average buy from £14.50 to £13.69, can't see how this is "continually looking backwards at trades I could / should have made". If you think this company is so good then keep buying and publish the trades/prices on here and to increase you gain buy them on margin. See you bought ENOG on Monday, good move but looks like you prefer ENOG to DEC, if not sell ENOG take your profits and put them in DEC on margin, look forward to you posting this or do you just support this company on paper like you don't have real looses but just paper ones because you have not sold which you have repeated quite a lot.

“£8 was in the gutter, £11 is 40% above the gutter!”

Really, these shares traded for a long time at £22 in a much worse market when democrats were after DEC and went up as high as £28, my average buy was around £14.50 if you include the dividends so even if we get to £14.50 there is a lot of inflation since then, £11 may not be the bottom of the gutter but sure looks like it is still there.

If you think these shares are so good and if you are so confident why not load up all you can into them using let’s say at 50% margin or at the very least are you increasing your position at present. I am running mine down, may not prove to be the best move but I don't want to be saying in a few years time fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me.

JIM

“I like I am sure all other investors bought DEC to make money not support it like your local football team.”

“Quite a sensible response until your last paragraph which was pathetic”

Why is that pathetic, it is true, who buys a share to lose money just so they can support the company. Far too many times I see posts supporting failing shares without logic or sense except that for some it is difficult to accept you have lost money and try to convince yourself and others it will all be fine in the end and like OB only look for the best parts. Almost always the shares keep failing until a change of management and/or a change of strategy, the proof is in the pudding and that is quite simply total returns, shares will blip but this is no blip it has been going on for a long time even as the market has significantly improved, logic tells us there is something very wrong so why would anyone with cash invested in DEC wish to support the strategy that trashed the SP and dividends unless they have the same loyalty as they do to their local football team.

“I’m offering an alternative to your point of view.”

That is fair enough and what these forums do best but where are the returns to shareholders, we don’t invest to lose money and jam tomorrow does not pay the bills.

“ lots of producing assets that will hopefully prove to be worth the expenditure”

And that is the issue it is built on hope, the one fact we can be certain of it has lead to large losses.

“Surely you agree DEC had to acquire assets”

And I need to drink water every day but I don’t drink 10 gallons and borrow shed loads of money to pay for it. DEC does not have to acquire assets, there is no law of man or nature that states this, it could use up all it has, return profits to shareholders and we would all have a great return but this is not in Rusty best interests. However I have always said DEC should replenish assets and perhaps add a bit more for growth not go crazy, put the company in huge high price debt, trash the dividends, dilute the shareholders, have a fire sale of shares and lie to shareholders.

“Time will tell whether they were as good as I think or as bad as you do!”

I don’t think you understand, this is not a start up company in a new and growing market, it is not what you think or I think that counts it is what the market thinks and so far the market thinks this is rubbish with no indication this will change without a clear change of strategy, in this case Rusty doing nothing is the only thing so far that has helped the SP, you may say BBs but borrowing money at 9.75% to BB shares yielding 8% does not look that clever or accretive to me.

JC01

The situation as I see it is simple, either Rusty has done a good job and we are all doing very well or a bad job and we have lost money, analogies, jam tomorrow, ramping it , wait for the next and then the next . . . report and we will all be millionaires, excuses etc do not put food on the table. Especially bad when HH over double in a short time, interest rates falling and SP still in the gutter, was once £28, over £14 before last deal announced and over £13 before botched finance for the last deal came to light.

Jim800

Your houses were bought with your money and debt you are responsible for, with DEC it is the shareholders on the hook not Rusty, after a drop in SP he just gives himself more shares for (as he tells us) the great work he has done. For me the asset is the DEC total return which is in the gutter and the only way even you can see to have any chance to get improvement is for Rusty not to do any more deals, at least for quite a time. The evidence is clear, 8 deals 8 times the SP drops which includes trashing the dividends, how can you not see this.

"We’ve chosen to invest in a company run by someone with a non standard strategy"

I did not chose to invest in a company to pursue acquisitions at any cost strategy, this happened after I bought in, myself or any other shareholders did not get a vote on this massive change of strategy or the dividend cut. In fact I chose to invest in a company where most output is hedged and the debt is mostly coved by the hedges. Now we have huge high price fixed term debt going on many years past the end of the hedges. DEC got lucky with Trump, AROs gone for a time, ESG dropped and lucky with world events HH up etc and where is the SP in the time HH has over doubled.

"he’s not changing his mind or getting sacked"

How do you know this, I suspect the IIs behind the scenes may well have had some influence on keeping a lid on Rusty's ambitions especially after his botched finance for the last deal and fire sale of shares which lead to the latest crash.

"If individuals don’t believe in the strategy and choose not to sell up then I don’t understand what their investment case is? Blind hope?"

Well I guess anyone who invested in DEC not clever or lucky enough to get in at the low points only has "Blind hope", what else is there, even when HH over $4 SP is still in the gutter. For me my best hope so far is to sell out on the highs and buy back in again on the lows, slowly but surely reduce my holdings in DEC. I have moved my breakeven point from around $14.50 to $13.69 by my strategy, for so many of us here just breaking even is a great result, says it all. All said I do not want to be holding too large a position if/when Rusty comes up with his 9th cunning plan and if I am very lucky (fat chance) out without loss.

I like I am sure all other investors bought DEC to make money not support it like your local football team.

DividendNomad

That is my point in that I do wonder if Iran has the capability to hit ENOG infrastructure, from memory one of Iran's proxies tried before but failed.

JIM

"but I think we’re moving in the right direction and have been since early April lows of sub 800p"

This is true but how many times has this happened before, Rusty does a deal SP crashes, SP start to recover, Rusty does a deal SP crashes ......

"There is a chance that Rusty had the correct strategy"

Perhaps but it not worked so far, down from a high of £28, most brokers say the SP should be over £20 which seems more than fair from the assets, income etc but here we are.

JC

"what else Hutson is doing to improve shareholder value"

Resign and let someone take over who understands how to get shareholder value, if not do nothing which from past history will improve the SP, says it all when the best your CEO can do is nothing.

So the directors need more incentive to do the job they are already very well paid to do. These are that same directors who came to the shareholders for more cash at £1.00 (initial offering) £1.06, £1.16 and £1.21 (I think there are some more fund raising before £1.06 for more than £1.00), the same directors that increased the debt that dragged to SP down.

You could say this is caused by circumstances outside of the directors control but compare this to SERI who did not pursue the grow as fast as you can policy and you will see in the last 5 years SREI up 61.77%, SUPR down 22.85%, massive 84.62% better off putting money in SREI, probably more taking into account dividends. I have both but put over twice as much in SUPR as SREI (value of SREI catching up SUPR), wish it was the other way round. The SUPR polices have not benefited the shareholders but have benefited the directors of SUPR. An apology and salary cut is more appropriate due to very poor long term performance.

Noses in the trough comes to mind

Jim800

IMO to keep the SP rising we need a period of calm so no more aqucitsions, decrease debt and hopefully more BBs or dare I say a special dividend, unlikely but as long suffering shareholders we deserve it especially after dividend cut.

"Q2 results should be out mid August which will give an indication as to whether deals have been as accretive as promised."

If they are not Rusty will really have egg on his face after trashing the SP and dividends for these and us shareholders we will be in a dark place especially given HH prices.

On the bright side HH is holding up well in the summer due to other factors we are all aware off and if it can stay up all summer it should be strong through the winter.

"JC and GG might even cheer up then :-)"

Would not put JC and GG together in this, JC like myself is looking at the bigger picture than just a few months and again like myself requires a very substantial rise in the SP just to break even so I suspect would be a lot happier if that happened but we are a very long way off that at present. GG on the other hand has already lost money by selling out and is never going to be happy but feels better if a lot more people become losers in DEC like himself, as I predicted he disappears when the price goes up as I am not getting those empty boxes now.

Kipper9

As I say I am not trading CPI as the I only seem to be able to lose money with this company, my last buy was 22p so still under water with that one. However after being challenged I have done so numerous time on the DEC board, just after I bought with price and as soon as I sold with price but are not putting all my trades on at present.

Aim

"Terry, sometimes share price rise on poor news and drop on good news."

That's the he old adage, Buy on rumour, Sell on fact or perhaps inside knowledge. I often see SP of companies go up just before a good report to drop after released and the go back up a few days later. Again this is one of the differences from trading to investing to spot the blips in the SP not try to look for long term growth or decline if shorting.

Trisor

You are correct about RR, one I missed out on as well as Bitcoin, as mostly an investor I do understand this and also there is a time to just hold, I was trading gold for a time but gave up and just held as there seem to be only one direction and that was up, can't quite decide if gold has reached the top for a time. Uranium seems to be the place to be now especially miners and other companies but yellow cake on the way up.

One advantage of trading is you use the same cash again and again but this means you have to get out even if you think it could well rise if you see a better opportunity and just be happy with the profits even if it turns out to be the wrong choice. Must admit I am not a natural trader and most of my cash is in investments but adding more to the trading pot as I get more confident.

Missed out here, was expecting to go lower like during the Trump tariffs crash and planning to sell some Shell to buy ENOG.

Still the good side is I already have a decent holding and luckily added during the drop because of Gaza conflict and Trump tariffs crash so happy with the profits.

I do wonder if Iran has the capability to hit ENOG infrastructure or if they are willing to take the risk that if they did Israel would take out a lot of their O&G leaving them with few ways to make money which would lead to more unrest and the possible overthrow of the current regime.