Member Info for TerryM1

Jim

The shorts are a mystery to me but may have been started because of leaking of the dividend cut then took on a life of their own as the SP fell due to technical factors, falling SP, other shorts increasing, increasing debt, HH falling, low BBs etc and add in lack of confidence in Rusty. However as I said before the recent shorts are at the recent SP so not losing but probably wining for now and also the SP will be held back due to yield, threat of another dividend cut, anaemic BBs, ESG selling, debt, past SP performance, Trusty Rusty. For SP to rise much we need to see a rise in HH, debt reduction, dividend increase, more BBs and if possible some accreditive sales.

I have been thinking this, perhaps adding 2 and 2 and making 5 but here goes.

It is interesting the shorts are about the same level as the Blackrock position and recently after Blackrock increased so did the shorts. Could Blackrock be the main lender of shares to the shorters, if so Blackrock will be getting a fee of lets say 10%pa, it then gets dividends of around 7%pa making return of 17% less COF which is perhaps around 7%. Blackrock can keep doing this as long as the shorters keep their position so as long as the SP does not drop more than 10%pa Blackrock makes money. The more shorts taken out then the more Blackrock increases, shorts bring the SP down and Blackrock’s increased position brings the SP up as the news gets out. Blackrock does this as it knows DEC is a sound company so in the end the shorts will close, SP goes up and Blackrock make a capital gain on top of the short fees and dividend less COF.

Of course I don’t know if this is the case but seems to make sense.

It does look as though the UK is following the US but with some changes during the day, for a lot of days recently the UK SP goes down in the morning to stabilised or go up a bit before NY opens. NY on the other hand goes down at the start of day and then rises after UK closed. At a guess what is happening is shares are being transferred from UK to NY when both markets are open and once UK is closed and the transferred shares are absorbed the price rises just to start again the next day. In the end the US will take over fully and UK will be insignificant or simple delist from the UK.

For TA as I have mentioned I used to go to a share club which was all about TA. Most there were using Vector Vest and it is not really as simple as filling gaps or being given a recommendation from the package. The people there spent many months tailoring the package, e.g. Macd curves with different parameters, Fibonacci and many other factors including P&L, balance sheet, director buys etc. After they worked out a strategy they would dry test it making improvements which they then tested with back data. When happy they tried it with real money and it did work but involved a lot of work which was ongoing as the strategy was changed as the markets changed. Some of the guys were invited into trading rooms and did talks to professional investors.

Https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/US-Natural-Gas-Market-Becomes-a-Global-LNG-Force.html

"Two years ago, WoodMac expected “Henry Hub prices would stay cheap as chips for the foreseeable future, underpinning US LNG’s competitiveness.”

But the changing dynamics in U.S. power and gas markets, with expectations of much higher gas demand from power, has led WoodMac’s team to take a more bullish view on Henry Hub prices in the medium to long term."

Jam tomorrow?

Tazed

I think the things that will hold the SP back are

1. Dividends, people expect a good dividend for a mature O&G company.

2. BBs, most O&G companies are buying back a lot of their own shares to reduce the future dividends and to counteract the ESG sell off.

3. High Debt, was acceptable during ZIRP time but not now and unlikely to return to ZIRP any time soon if at all.

4. Rusty's inability to tell the truth, not good if you cannot predict what will happen or worse case you can, Rusty say one thing does the opposite with money earmarked for dividends or BBs with the addition of high priced debt.

If Blackrock could make DEC become a predictable money making machine which is the company it was always meant to be I believe we will all do very well.

Unfortunately looks like upward trend now broken, I suspect DEC SP will be restricted by the yield but hopefully some more to go before that, investors buy O&G for dividends and now days share BB to some extent.

BlackRock Modifies Stake in Diversified Energy Company

https://www.tipranks.com/news/company-announcements/blackrock-modifies-stake-in-diversified-energy-company

Which we all know about but the interesting part

"This change in shareholding structure could potentially impact Diversified Energy Company’s strategic decisions and investor relations."

Will Blackrock try to change DECs course, they are in a position to get other IIs on board, if so should be a good for shareholders as Blackrock know how to get value out of a company.

Https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/YCA/yellow-cake-plc-annual-results-for-the-year-ended-31-march-2024/16577018

Figures from 31 Mar so not relevant for todays price but found this interesting

"Consequently, by 18 July, the company's holdings increased to 21.68 million pounds of triuranium octoxide, acquired at an average cost of $34.64 per pound.

That represented about 15% of the global uranium production for 2023."

Pickedpeck

You are correct, should have took more time to read the RNS, they moved some of the equity holding to CFD and additionally increased CFD position. I guess a way to increase exposure without laying out more capital.

Yes, Blackrock reduced from 7% to 6.25%

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/DEC/holding-s-in-company/16576388

Now Nasdeq pre market for DEC not working

Just looked again and first got page unavailable and now coming up with up with around $16.94 for a just a few trades do some type of technical issue with nasdec website.

Not sure what is going on but DEC after hours trades just after NY close has price at around $13.5 with large volume over 100,000 but LSE price only down a small amount.

Savage_KeyboardR

"there's a very real risk of CPI being a completely worthless"

.

.

"now selling off it's silverware"

I wish you luck with BT partly as I have some but would not increase as I suspect Labour will find a way to cut the profits due to regulation, bill caps, tax, et al. Didn't BT just sell off some of it's silverware which was the cause of the recent rise.

However I really wish you would stop coming on this board in effect telling us we are making mistakes, the biggest mistake was the one you made by missing out on the latest rise, you’ve got to be in it to win it.

For new investments I am looking outside of the UK, don't have much faith in the UK markets and in out new socialist government who have already started adding more regulation and taxes with no doubt a lot more to come, stamp duty second highest in the world with only Ireland charging more.

Will still hold CPI as looking a good recovery play.

Discount now 19%, I think that is most it has been or at least the most I have seen it. Took a few more just before close, could not resist at this level but may be premature as trending down, see tomorrow.

Not sure what to do but looking at

GLEN, pulling back at present which may be to do with L&G off loading for ESG issues, otherwise can't see any other reason but GLEN up and down a lot as no stamp duty so a good trading share. Always down well out of GLEN.

ENOG, is in risky area but looks good but waiting for a pull back, big return of funds coming to shareholders.

YCA & Cameco, all Uranium stocks just taken a dive but Spot only down a small amount, can find any news on why this has happened. YCA which holds physical U3O8 now 19% discount which is probably the most it has been so could be interesting.

Hi Trek

Took a 19% profit from my last trade, price gone up a little now and if dazzel right will go up some more but happy with the gain and overall average down a bit. No one goes hungry from taking profits.

Hi Trek

Partly for safety just sold out my last 2 lot I bought from my trading pot, could well be a mistake but wanted to crystallise these gains, got these below £11 so happy with that. Will hold on to the investment holding for now and perhaps buy back in if there on dips.

Trek

Unfortunately I think there will be a ceiling on the SP determined by the yield, O&G companies except exploration are bought with dividend income in mind and also most are buying back large amounts of their own shares which seems to be expected now. DEC on paper may be worth a lot more but O&G investors want income. If I compare this with a total separate beast SUPR, get 8% yield and a good chance of capital gain as the discount to NAV will no doubt drop as interest rates decline. Also one with a lot more risk ENOG an O&G company with 9% yield. If I want capital gains I would prefer uranium companies like CCJ. DEC was great when it had a high yield but not so good now.

IMO it will be the US that determines the SP so I think $17 is the resistance point to look to, hopefully we can break this today, there are some after hours trades just above $17 but as always these are low volume so don't mean too much. May well be in the hands of the Russell Index, it that rises good chance DEC will.

"The gas price has been falling for a month so hasn’t done any harm thus far, think hedging takes a lot of the immediate price action out of it"

That's the point if it was just a blip no problem but it has been falling for a time and has lost 30% from recent high which is still low for recent years before the crash of last winter. While I agree we are hedged some gas is sold at spot and the new acquisition does not have the same hedging, also low HH will feed in to future hedging. I would fell a lot more comfortable if HH would a least stop falling, however at this level more wells will be closed or suspended so hopefully will rise in the medium term.

Don't think there is manipulation of HH price but is being effected by reduction of export capacitcy which hopefully will be restored soon.

Looks like HH could go below $2 soon, Deja Vu all over again and £ strong against $.

Also last after hours trade of $16.40 for 150 but may not mean anything given the volume

Trek could well be right in that we are in for a pull back.