RE: Smart Eye Results30 Aug 2023 12:45
First thoughts on Smart Eye results for the April to June quarter. Note I am a market analyst not a financial analyst, and Smart Eye's path to profitability is outside my remit. The critical observation is that Smart Eye still doesn't provide quarterly updates on cars on the road. That number provides verification of the generation of licensing revenues, and also identifies the DMS market leader. Not only has Seeing Machines now also passed the 1 million vehicles on road mark, but it can demonstrate delivery growth quarter-on-quarter from information placed in the public domain.
For the twelve months from 1 July 2022 through 30 June 2023, Seeing Machines' annual production volume totaled 638,951 vehicles. We have to estimate Smart Eye, but information presented at InCabin Phoenix in March showed Smart Eye at 1.3 million vehicles. That is assumed to be a rise of 0.3 million by e/o December, from 1.0 million at e/o June. So 150,000 units a quarter, or 600,000 units annualized.
But 600,000 units is the best case. In 2023 BMW has begun to ramp-up production of iDrive 8/8.5/9. BMW's Gen2 DMS is assessed to use Seeing Machines, changing from Smart Eye DMS in Gen1. Solely at BMW, which Smart Eye last year declared was the largest contributor to the delivery number, Seeing Machines' deliveries are accelerating, while Smart Eye's are declining.
Production increases from Korea (probably Hyundai) and Japan (probably Mitsubishi and Nissan) are encouraging and will support Smart Eye's shipments. So will China (probably Polestar). But definitive guidance on the situation at BMW Group is the metric that matters. For sure, automotive revenues are growing, but that number has NRE payments and AIS (fleet) lumped in, and provides no reliable guidance of vehicle deliveries whatsoever.
The conclusion is that on a last-twelve-months basis, Seeing Machines is now the #automotive #DMS market leader, with 638,951 vehicles produced with its #software. The estimate for Smart Eye is 500,000 to 550,000. The actual number could be even lower than this, since Smart Eye didn't announce passing the 1.5 million mark in the 2Q report. Any uncertainty will be removed if Smart Eye publishes deliveries by quarter for the last twelve months, which it has the opportunity to do at its upcoming investor presentation.
The 2023 edition of Semicast's report "#ADAS & Automotive Vision-based #Driver #Monitoring #Systems” is sold out. Message me for details of the 2024 edition.