Colin Post27 Aug 2021 11:42
This slide presents my latest estimates for #automotive #DMS market shares, with analysis for 2026. I chose to focus on that year because the nominations will mostly have been made by then and the regulatory picture much clearer, leading to stabilizing market shares.
There will be a lot of "nomination noise" in the next 6-24 months, so I devised a series of metrics called "KCIs" (Key Competency Indicators) to maintain focus on the big picture. The share estimates are based on the ten metrics shown in the slide, which I have discussed in more detail in a soon to be published EE Times article.
The KCIs point overwhelmingly to a dominant position for Seeing Machines, potentially with a number 1 factor 3 market share. Smart Eye is a worthy supplier, but in dire need of converting its well-publicized design-wins into vehicles reaching start of production (SoP). Companies survive long term on revenue growth, not PR. Cipia establishes credibility from a relationship with Mobileye to take third place.
My analyst's view is there is a clear lack of understanding of just how demanding "OEM automotive grade" DMS actually is. The test, validation and verification processess for automotive #software are simply brutal.
ISO 26262 is a serious standard and represents a phenomenal barrier to entry both to established eye tracking companies in adjacent markets (such as Tobii) and even to the #tech giants more adept at writing commercial-grade software (such as Apple, Amazon, Google and Microsoft). This is why Mobileye still dominates ADAS forward camera and also why it continues to exist as a standalone business unit within Intel.
In terms of M&A, I expect Cipia and Jungo to have been bought by the end of this year. Whether Seeing Machines continues long-term as an independent company will largely be decided by its leading institutional investors.
Note, I use the term "DMS" for simplicity, which includes driver, occupant and in-cabin (interior sensing) monitoring. The #growth possibility are staggering. In 2026 I estimate an automotive DMS market size in the range of 60-65 million units.
If you are an existing or potential investor in DMS and seek independent analysis of the leading #technology suppliers, current state of the market and future direction, I can be booked for telephone-based consultancy via GLG and Guidepoint. Just ask for me by name.
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/activity-6836951425864503296-bwXy