Colin Linkedin13 Jan 2023 13:34
With #CES over I was looking to update the design win chart for #driver #monitoring #systems #DMS. At this time it isn't possible to do so with any confidence. I'll explain.
The #PR position at e/o 2022 is:
Seeing Machines "15 automotive programs spanning 10 individual OEMs, covering more than 160 distinct vehicle models."
Smart Eye "a total of up to 194 design wins from 18 OEMs."
Cipia "28 vehicle models on 8 different platforms across 5 car manufacturers."
The PR makes it appear Smart Eye is the clear leader, but there are obvious differences in definitions. Smart Eye appears to be counting marques within a group. For instance, wins from Stellantis could be counted as two #OEMs if the marques were #Vauxhall and #Opel. This might also open the possibility to double count a win, such as Vauxhall #Mokka and Opel Mokka.
The biggest uncertainty is Smart Eye's latest award, for "up to 53 design wins." There is a difference between "up to 53" and 53, and the obfuscation is interesting. Looking at the data, ten of Smart Eye's first 17 OEMs initially went for a single model award, and two others are judged at 1-3 models. Three are judged 10-15 models, while two are unclear. Thus, statistically, OEM18 would have signed for a single model, and in the absence of definitive information it is assigned as such. That would take Smart Eye to 142 design wins.
Since the comparison disregards production volumes anyhow (a win for 10,000 units per year has equal weight to a win for 1 million per year) the only valid conclusion is that Smart Eye and Seeing Machines are the two clear leaders going into 2023 (ahead of Xperi Inc. and Cipia).
CES also revealed more information about the new BMW Group #iDrive 8.5 and 9. (https://lnkd.in/dSG8vpdr) Based on illumination patterns of the DMS seen in videos of iDrive 8, it is clear that iDrive DMS is a Seeing Machines win, superseding the Smart Eye win in Driving Assistant Professional.
Both companies are clearly counting BMW in their win totals, and in 2023 the Smart Eye volume will drop, and the Seeing Machines volume will rise, owing to the rollout of iDrive8/8.5/9.
The most meaningful metric going forward is thus quarterly unit data, which would allow unambiguous comparisons to be made between the two companies. Seeing Machines has already published quarterly #KPIs to the end of September, Smart Eye hasn’t - decide for yourself if that difference in disclosure is informative. The picture may be clearer by mid-year, and after Smart Eye has completed its on-going fundraise, but 2023 is primed to be a big year for DMS awards.
Magna International (w/ Veoneer), Continental and Valeo appear to be the key tier-1s for Seeing Machines. For Smart Eye, Aptiv, Bosch, Mitsubishi and maybe Hyundai MOBIS. For all the talk of #algorithms, "co-designed optical path" and #humanfactors science look set to be the winning differentiators. Try explaining those to the press and investors!
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